Oplever vi eufori blandt investorerne? Ken Fisher besvarer

요약 보기

결론: 시장이 도취(유포리아) 상태라는 우려는 근거가 있지만, 도취 국면은 보통 한동안 더 지속되므로 곧바로 하락 신호로 보기는 어렵다. 도취의 특징: 도취 국면에는 저품질 투기성 IPO가 넘쳐나고, 대기업이 주식 발행으로 다른 기업을 인수해 희석이 일어나며, 경영진이 낙관적 신호를 보낸다. 투자자 행태: 2~3년 뒤 주당순이익(EPS)을 예측해 주식을 사는 것은 본질적으로 투기적이지만, 도취 상황에서는 어리석게 여겨지지 않는다. 정당화 논리: 도취 세계에서는 '이번엔 다르다'는 논리로 평소라면 정당화되지 않을 투자도 정당화된다. 코로나 봉쇄 이후 경기 재개, 1.9조 달러 부양책, 후속 인프라 법안이 수년간의 이익 성장을 전제로 한 예다. 역사적 비교: 1990년대 후반 인터넷 버블 당시 '인터넷이 전부'라는 식의 무엇이든 정당화하는 논리가 같은 패턴이었다. 리스크: 실제 이익과 무관하게 '훌륭하니까 훌륭하다'는 식의 전망은 과열 신호이며, 그 연장선상의 급락 가능성이 있다. 출연자 전망: 특정 자산 가격의 1~3개월 방향에 대한 명시적 예측은 없고, 도취 국면의 특징과 역사적 패턴을 설명하는 데 집중했다.

다듬은 글

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01. there's been a lot of inkspill lately on the notion that markets are getting eoric maybe are euphoric isn't that scary isn't that a sign of the end the uh forgetting about the fact that usually once you hit Euphoria it runs on for a fairly long period of time before you hit the end um a lot of people haven't been through multiple cycles of euphoria and don't really know what Euphoria is like so I'm going to speak a little bit to that what is it that Euphoria looks like the fact is that Euphoria is a world where you justify things under it's going to be really good for a really long time basis that otherwise wouldn't be justifiable and uh that we're in a different world and it's because of this or that and that changes everything so with that that usually comes abundant initial public offerings IPOs and not just abundant ones but abundant very low quality ones of businesses that are purely speculative uh also big companies buying other companies funded purely by equity which then creates Equity delution to the creation of new shares to pay for the bid up this is a sign that those managements are really optimistic remember the seller always knows more about the thing than the buyer does always maybe not almost always the reality of euphoria is that it includes people buying stocks commonly on projections of earnings two and three years out no one's really able to project earnings per share two and three years out so the notion that you're buying stock based on that is in and of itself highly speculative and u considered foolish most of the time but in a euphoric World it isn't considered foolish the euphoric world has this part that believes it's different now because of this feature or that feature uh currently you know there's a lot of people that believe that because of what happened that we all know about happened tied to co and the lockdowns shut down the economy and as the ramp up in that return of opening up the economy has allowed for companies to make full or partial uh return to the way they were before that the ones that haven't been able to fully return to the way they were before will benefit from the government spending uh of the co relief bill the now the $1.9 trillion bill has been much publicized and that that will lead to earnings growth that will go on likely followed by an admin the administration offering an infrastructure bill that will provide more growth and and these kinds of things particularly ones predicated on government action uh that will generate growth several years out are exact ly the kind of thing that pop up as you begin to get into Euphoria when you get fully into Euphoria you get even crazier ones uh and that for example that people who remember it from uh 21 22 years ago recall with the internet boom and bust of the late 90s into 2201 uh as people justifying everything because and the seeing at the time was it's the internet stupid so the reality is these kinds of things that look to it'll be great because it's going to be great uh without a justification for what makes it truly different than normal times and why you can break all the rules because of this greatness that we will now have for a really long time maybe forever that that's what Euphoria looks like subscribe to the fiser investment YouTube channel if you like what you've seen click the Bell to be notified as soon as we publish new videos