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mark is that where we're going a new cold war and if so what are the implications there's no question we're in a new cold war because what he said this is a very very strong speech on the part of president biden it's amazing that in addition to the economic existence he emphasized the military assistance that means that there's going to be an escalation of this and basically what we're looking at is this is going to be russia's afghanistan they are going to tie russia down in ukraine for quite a long time but what that also means of course is that europe is very insecure of course you've already seen the dax and the french market crash and i think you're going to see a lot of the assets in europe not being in good shape uh but the good news is that the other parts of the world are doing very well brazil is up south africa is up obviously because commodities and uh asia more or less is flat with the exception of china which is down but i think uh yeah probably china is going to be a winner in this case what you do not think that china at all will pay a price for being shoulder to shoulder with russia at this point they will from a a pr point of view but they probably will pull back and become more neutral but the reality is that trade with russia will probably increase uh it's going to be probably difficult for the west to convince china to stop trade with china but that's an interesting possibility if that happens then russia is really in big trouble and you have said before that china could be a sort of haven in this environment where else may there be opportunity mark as we see obviously emerging markets flows being forced essentially out of russia of course uh you know the haven for safety is always the u.s and you've seen the u.s dollar really doing very well the euro was crashed it's almost in par with the u.s dollar which we never expected to see so uh and now it's really havens like a u.s market a gold uh look at palladium palladium is up 120 from the bottom of course the reason is that an earls nickel in russia is one of the biggest producers of palladium so there's some of these commodities that are going to do very well so you know they're going to be winners and losers that put it that way and so we have to be very cautious in the way we look at this and pick the right choices mark are we heading for a recession you bring up europe is there going to be a recession in the united states goldman sachs today upgrading its forecast for the possibility of a recession in the united states is europe heading for a recession is america heading for a recession uh europe i think is probably headed for recession um or let's say economic difficulty i don't think the us is i think the u.s is probably going to be ramping up production of military goods for example uh that will help the economy but also generally speaking uh the interest rate rise is already factored in to the market so i think that's not going to be a big problem for the us and i think the us will do fairly well in this environment well you mentioned interest rate hikes mark given the war in ukraine do you expect monetary policy to have to be more or less aggressive given the inflationary impulse in the fuel added to that fire probably less aggressive i think uh the fed is going to be much more cautious in this kind of environment which of course is happy news for people in the bond market but they're definitely going to raise interest rates but not as aggressively as they thought they would because of this situation mark let's just talk about how you position a portfolio right now i heard what you just said about the bond market but nevertheless bonds have been going down we've seen yields coming up we've seen equities coming down uh commodities obviously have been a place that have that have been performing very well but nevertheless the kind of the the main components of a balanced portfolio let's call it a 60 40 portfolio are not performing right now if that continues at some point and david wu was talking about this at some point we're going to have to see um risk parity funds and other funds being forced sellers is that point coming soon i think it's already happened in many cases we've seen that in the case of china for example one of the reasons why the chinese market is done so poorly is because there's so many people that are indexing uh the market and of course they're forced to sell when the index goes down emerging markets index for example has been battered because of the heavy weight of china but people who have been stock picking who have not followed the indexes who are not in etfs have done fairly well because there are a lot of stocks out there that have done very good in this environment of course companies that don't have debt number one and companies that have a good return on capital so uh there are many opportunities out there still and probably will be more as we go forward in this environment it's going to be very interesting to see how that plays out sticking with china mark how large a concern is the regulatory crackdown for you just today dd global which of course is the chinese ride hailing company listed in the u.s intends to d-list wanted to re-list in hong kong now has to put that on hold because of the cyber security probe not necessarily going the way regulators want it's down 38 percent you're seeing tech at its lowest in when it comes to the hangston tech index since march of 2020 with that kind of regulatory overhang how much of a headwind is that for chinese markets well i first felt that the regulatory crackdown in china was probably good because it created a more level playing field now of course it's had not good consequences for the index that's for sure but mainly because of the impact on the big stock the big cap stocks but at the end of the day what's really pushing the market in china down is that there's an incredible amount of debt not only the property sector but in other sectors i don't know you know in the nickel market for example it's a big disaster so i think that's really the worry about china dead mark you you've been really positive about china in the past how significant have your view how significantly changed are your views now say versus even three months ago on what is happening in china uh we've been very light in china we've been more concentrated in india because we thought there were more opportunities in india but we have a little bit in china but again mainly stock picking you know picking stocks that were not the big caps the medium and small caps and i think there's still opportunities there but i think in view of this environment we have to be very cautious i i necessarily at this stage would not be heading mark you mentioned nickel there which obviously blew up in quite dramatic fashion this week i'm wondering what your view is of the medals at this point i think uh nickel crisis will do quite well going forward as you know one of the biggest producers is the rest nickel in russia given the fact that you have these sanctions uh it'll be difficult for people to get their hands on nickel so nicholls should do fairly well and of course you've seen the counterpart that you know you get palladium with nickel uh palladium has gone through the roof uh it's done better than gold far better than gold in fact so i think nickel will be okay final question from me mark what do you think about cash right now in this kind of environment do you need to be invested ash is king in an environment like this but uh i would not put more than 15 in cash at this stage of the game uh now is the time to be stock picking and looking at good stocks that have gone down a lot for no good reason uh just because of the environment or because of the index and now i would say equities is the key not fixed income but equities is where you want to be
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