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Jeremy makes important points, but in my opinion , buying back Treasury bonds was a wise move. I don't think it's any different than a company saying, " Look, investors are nervous about some things related to my stock, but it's not related to the company itself." And I think that was exactly the signal from the Treasury.
So I don't consider it manipulation. This is really a value indicator, and in my opinion they are just trying to pick out the signal from the noise. This won't work? Well, if it doesn't work, they have even more dollars to put to use. So I really think that the Ministry of Finance has a lot of resources at its disposal.
So I assume it will work. So, you're assuming that yields will start to decline again? I think we just need some ballast until we get a clearer signal on oil prices, the dynamics of the consumer price index, and other factors that are making the market hesitate. Of course, there is a meeting in Jackson Hole this week or next, and I think it can provide clarity that will help to calm the risk premium that is built into yields.
Brenda, how do you see it? Well, I think a lot of the discussion this week is that Kevin Warsh is in a difficult position because he's saying, "Let the bond market tell us what's going on," and yet, by contrast , Secretary Yellen is buying up Treasury securities. But if you look at it in more detail, 20- year and 30-year bonds are very illiquid.
The total long-term bond market is about $6 trillion . Nobody focuses on 20- and 30-year papers. Everyone is looking at 10-, 5-, and 2- year bonds, but they are not redeeming them. Therefore, I believe that Fed Chairman Warsh may well find a way out by noting: first, these Treasury purchases are insignificant compared to the total volume, and this is rather a signal that the Treasury is ready to intervene and buy these long-term securities .
After all, the reality is that 10-year and shorter bonds are the benchmark for everything else. So I think the market, the stock market, will be in a range this week because, as the professor and Tom said, the Jackson Hole meeting that he's going to speak at on Friday will be, I think, the tipping point where we'll figure out: what is he really thinking, or what is he going to tell us about his thinking, given that he's already said he's going to be a taut Fed chairman?
Tom, do we think next week is the most defining week for stock movements over the next few months? You know, you wo n't hear anything from Nvidia for a long time after next Wednesday. And I don't think anyone expects any major decisions from the Fed in September or even October, right up until the midterm elections themselves.
I think this makes next week even more important for the stock market. Uh , I agree. I believe that this can be called an event that will put everything in its place, because let's take, for example, the story of AI. There were concerns about data centers and political opposition. And this led to a slowdown in trade.
I think Jensen Huang will restore confidence by showing that demand remains unabated and the industry will continue to grow despite everything. Likewise for the Fed, I believe uncertainty is growing between Warsh's speeches. So I think this is another opportunity to correct course. You raise an interesting question.
So, do you think what looks like growing opposition to data centers is actually having an impact on the market? Yes, because if data centers can't be built, then the whole concept of investing in "bottlenecks" doesn't look so reliable anymore. So I think the events in Ohio, Florida, Texas and Pennsylvania, where governors are imposing moratoriums and voters are saying it's a political issue, are making investors hesitant.
What if it doesn't change? I mean, I'm looking at one of the latest polls right now, which I saw this morning, and support is falling across all political parties. So, I think what this tells us is that the AI industry, especially the labs, need to start getting the message across that this is not the end of the world.
You know, I think this is very serious, and this political problem could become a real obstacle. But that's exactly why stocks of companies working with AI in end-user segments are starting to rise. Software performed well this week , even biotech and cryptocurrencies, as they all stem from the AI story.
What about lower crude oil prices? So, tech stocks are strengthening a bit, but it's the high beta that's getting the most attention this morning. We have Blue Energy. They received price target adjustments and pretty good reviews from several analyst firms overnight, and there is optimism that fuel cell technology for powering data centers could be a major boost for them.
There's also Generac, which we'll talk more about later today, but their deal with Amazon is also pushing those stocks up a bit. So, energy companies within the AI theme are in demand right now . GE Vernova, keep an eye on them. They were trading near the 200- day moving average, or at least that's how it was about two days ago.
You can already see that they are trying to recoup some of those losses. So the AI trend is coming back, and I think we should see what happens next in the market. I think it will be a meeting between Trump and Xi in the coming days, and it could start some collaboration in the technology sector, not only here in the US, but also for those who have businesses in China.
If you look at Alibaba, you can see an interesting technical model there. There is a bit more risk appetite in the market today. The sectors that should be performing well are doing well so far, and that's exactly what we should be seeing: a retracement of the 50-day moving average, which we're seeing in futures right now , and an attempt to break through the 20-day moving average, which has been a resistance area for the past two weeks.
If we can retrace those two moving averages, we might be able to break out of the bullish flag pattern if we look at the longer time frame for the E-mini S&P 500. Okay, just really quickly on where we don't see risk— logically, it's Lennar. Their shares came under pressure after quarterly results. Tell us about the main news headlines.
Yes, that's not too surprising. Before you get started, make sure you subscribe for more AI and stock market analysis . AI is entering a new phase. For a long time, the main question was which company had the most advanced AI models. But now the discussion is broadening. Increasingly, it i benefits from the economic benefits created by AI.
One important concept here is sovereign AI. At the enterprise level, sovereign AI is largely about control over data and technology. When a company transfers its data to an external AI model, several questions immediately arise. Where is this data stored processes them, and how much control does the company ultimately have over its own information?
broader AI discussion. Many companies were initially very quick to adopt AI, but as solutions improve, businesses are asking more detailed questions about data ownership, security, and control. They want to leverage the advanced capabilities of AI while maintaining control over their most important information.
It also changed the discussion around traditional software. There was a period when investors feared that AI could make much of the software industry irrelevant. But the situation is more complicated. AI systems still require software. They need corporate data and cybersecurity. And they need applications that can combine AI models with gaining attention in discussions about AI.
concentrated only among companies developing advanced models. The AI ecosystem has many levels. The model is one of the layers, but around it there is cloud infrastructure, enterprise software, data platforms, and cybersecurity solutions. Another important factor is distribution. Companies like Meta already have a huge user base, which puts them in a better position than an AI company that has to build a customer base from scratch.
If one company slows down its AI development, it doesn't necessarily mean the entire industry is slowing down. Other companies can continue to invest. They can continue to develop models and integrate these systems into existing products and services. This is why the discussion around open source AI and open weights is so important.
The AI race is not just about creating the most powerful models. Companies also need users, distribution, data, infrastructure, and ultimately, a way to monetize these capabilities. At the same time, the debate over AI regulation and security continues. Some AI companies and industry leaders have called for stronger protections around advanced AI systems.
Others argue that slowing development could lead to strategic and economic losses. This debate will likely continue. But despite this debate, companies in the technology industry
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