저자: TomLee&MattHougan—제목기준추정 · 외국인
요약 보기
미국 정부 셧다운, AI 밸류에이션 우려, 10월 10일 대규모 청산으로 암호화폐와 성장주가 조정. 마켓메이커 일부 마비로 유동성 축소(크립토 QT). 두 출연자는 바닥이 가까우며 장기 매수 기회라고 주장. 이더리움은 스테이블코인·토큰화·예측시장 등 구조적 성장 수혜로 제시. 비트코인은 연말까지 신고점 가능성 언급. 주식은 연말까지 강세 전망.
다듬은 글
uh proved to be very popular with investors as you point out. Um and part of it is the performance. Granny Shots um in its first year outperformed the broader index by a thousand basis points and year to date um beating the S&P by more than a,000 basis points. . According to Tom Lee, both the crypto market and the broader equity market have been under pressure due to a cluster of overlapping macro challenges.
First, the US government shutdown introduced a major wave of uncertainty, chilling risk sentiment across the board. Anytime Washington gridlock slows policy clarity or threatens critical functions, the market tends to step back. Second, doubts surrounding AI valuations have added fuel to the fire. Many of the big AI leaders saw rapid corrective moves as investors questioned whether valuations had sprinted too far ahead of fundamentals.
And once AI stocks pulled back, the broader growth sector followed in cryptoland in equity world because one uh we've had a government shutdown. Um and then there's been doubts about AI valuations and people raising questions about that. So AI stocks have corrected and many growth stocks have corrected.
And then in crypto specifically uh it's been dealing with two two issues. One is there was this big liquidation event on October 10th. One that really was a larger liquidation event than anything seen in history. And the second is because crypto is riskone. I think markets are really struggling with what the Fed's going to signal on December because, you know, if you end up with a hawkish Fed, it gets crypto investors very nervous.
I think that's all creating this downside pressure, but I think the good news is uh there are signs of exhaustion. I I did speak with Tom Demar of Demar Analytics and you know, he he thinks there are signs that would look like a bottom that could be occurring sometime this week. H Matt, uh, do you do you agree with Tom here?
I actually do exactly agree with Tom. I think we're nearing a bottom. I look at this as a great buying opportunity for long-term investors. You know, Bitcoin was the first thing to turn over before this broader market pullback. It was sort of the canary in the coal mine signaling that there was some risk in all sorts of risk on assets.
I think it'll be the first thing to bottom and I agree with Tom. We're getting very close to that point. So, I think it's an exciting opportunity again for people who are looking out a year or more into the future. Tom, um, kind of digging into Ethereum a bit more. Um, what do you think are some of the the idiosyncratic drivers here?
Are there things that you think may be, uh, due for more of a decoupling from just the broader risk environment or crypto as well? Well, um, you know, Ethereum is a smart contract platform. So, it differs from Bitcoin, which is a store of value and in in many ways its virtue is that it's inert, you know, and it represents digital gold and a good store of value.
Ethereum, on the other hand, uh, is because it's a smart contract platform is really the rails where I think a lot of things are going to be built. And one of the big breakouts this year has been stable coins, but it's also been things like prediction markets and now talk about tokenizing more than just dollars, but equities and real estate and alternative assets and and other assets.
And a lot of that will be built on Ethereum or layer 2. So I I think from a a perspective of what the ecosystem looks like, Ethereum is a place where there's a lot of activity taking place, you know, and you can measure it by transaction volumes or um transactions per second or even value locked on the chain.
And these are all rising. So to us, I I think it's a story that still is in the earliest stages and one of the reasons we consider it a super cycle. Um, and Matt, you you agreed you said that you agree with Tom that it's nearing a bottom. How much of a a long-term buy do you think this is? I think it's a a generational opportunity for long-term investors, whether you're looking at Bitcoin, Ethereum, or Salana.
To double down on what Tom said about Ethereum specifically, look, I think investors are very nervous broadly about the economy, about AI valuations, about tariffs, about the broad economy. You want to look for secular trends that are decoupled from that. I think regardless of what happens on the economy in the next year, stable coins will grow tremendously.
I think regardless of what happens, tokenization will, you know, maybe 10x in the next few years. Prediction markets are going to be huge. Decentralized identity and digital identity are going to be huge. Ethereum lets you play those secular trends which are in this enormous growth phase almost regardless of what's happening in the broader economy.
So, for me, it's really it's a generational opportunity and to get in at these prices, I think really is almost a gift for long-term investors. It's a tremendous opportunity. Tom provides an important insight that many analysts have overlooked. The October 10th liquidation wasn't just a price event.
It was a functional event. He believes some market makers were crippled. Certain liquidity providers may still be inactive or impaired. Liquidity compression acts like crypto's version of quantitative tightening or cryptoQT. Just like the Fed shrinking its balance sheet tightens financial conditions, a sudden drop in crypto liquidity restricts market function and elevates volatility.
This explains why prices have lagged even after initial selling stopped. One of them is is the industry did suffer a big liquidation event that I think crippled many players and wiped out many accounts. So, I think that this just like in 2022 or in 2020, it does take a few weeks for the industry to sort of find its footing.
And I think that's why crypto prices have lagged here. Um, and it does have the signs of that maybe a market maker or two uh actually uh is unable to provide market liquidity. And as you know, as liquidity contracts, it's the same thing as the central bank tightening. So, it's almost like cryptoQT. Um, I think the other thing the markets are grappling with is people talking about the four-year cycle.
Many are convinced that Bitcoin prices have peaked. So, in some ways, Bitcoin being the the blue chip and the bellweather uh is important for crypto because if Bitcoin makes a new high this year, then it really obiates the fact that there is a four-year cycle. And so, it's, you know, to me, uh, between now and year end, you know, I'm pretty bullish on stocks.
Um, you know, this sort of weakness in the first half of November was what we expected, but as markets rally, I think that's going to help propel Bitcoin to an all-time high. Tom, we can't let you go without asking about Granny Shots. That ETF recently celebrating its one-year anniversary, gathering 3.6 billion in assets in its first year.
You plan to expand the lineup. How do you plan to do so, and where else on the court will you be shooting from, so to speak? Yeah. Well, [clears throat] that's right. Granny Shots, which refers to a way of shooting free throws, uh proved to be very popular with investors as you point out. Um and part of it is the performance.
Granny Shots um in its first year outperformed the broader index by a thousand basis points and year-to- date um beating the S&P by more than a thousand basis points. The idea of Granny Shots is is the idea that there are super cycles um themes that last for more than 5 to 10 years and and we want to buy the strongest stocks.
So we are expanding the Granny Shots family that they're going to go effective tomorrow. One is a smidcap Granny. So this is taking the same Granny model, finding the seven super cycle themes, but buying small and midcap stocks. Um, and it's going to hold more names, maybe 40 to 50 names versus 30 for granny.
And, and this is going to be a good way for investors to get additional granny exposure in small and mid. And the second is an income oriented Granny Shots product. So, this is going to be using the same Granny Shots model, but also generating income. So, the tickers are GRNJ for small midcap and GRNI for the Granny Income.
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