저자: 빌밀러 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 빌 밀러는 러시아-우크라이나 지정학적 긴장과 러시아 외환보유고의 달러·유로 편중을 근거로 비트코인에 강세 전망을 제시했다. 지정학·비트코인 주장: 러시아 외환보유액 6,400억 달러 중 달러 16%, 유로 32%로 약 50%가 서방이 통제하는 통화에 묶여 있다고 지적했다. 금 22%만이 통제 불가능한 자산이며, 비준비통화국들이 비트코인을 고려할 수 있다고 봤다. 비트코인은 어느 국가도 통제하지 않고 공급이 고정되어 있어 강세 요인이라고 설명했다. 그 외 암호화폐는 비트코인과 달리 특정 문제를 해결하려는 벤처 투자로 봐야 한다고 말했다. 시장·경기 주장: 최근 변동성은 경기침체 공포에 따른 것이지만, 실업률 저하, 기업 이익 사상 최고, 주정부 세수 증가, 높은 신용카드 사용 등을 근거로 경기침체가 임박하지는 않았다고 평가했다. 연준의 긴축 전환(양적긴축, 금리인상)으로 실수 가능성이 가격에 반영되고 있으며 당분간 감수해야 한다고 보았다. 다만 특정 예측보다는 현재 상황을 이해하려 한다고 밝혔다. 채권·금리 주장: 실질금리가 여전히 크게 마이너스이고 헤드라인 인플레이션 기준으로 채권시장은 전혀 매력적이지 않다고 평가했다. 연준은 수익률곡선을 완만하게 가져가길 원할 것이며, 채권에서 가치를 보지 못한다고 밝혔다. 연준의 대차대조표 축소와 금리인상 중 어느 방식이 나은지에 대해서는 두 가지 모두 절제된 형태로 의미가 있다고 답했다. 출연자·진행: 사회자는 지정학 리스크와 비트코인 관련 사례를 소개했으며, 해당 발언은 사회자 발언으로 제외했다.
다듬은 글
russia has 16 of their 640 billion dollars of reserves in dollars they have 32 in euros so they have almost 50 percent of their reserves in currencies that are controlled by people who want to do them harm now i think we should do them harm but the point is from russia's point of view that's not a great position to be in billionaire investor bill miller believes the ongoing geopolitical tension between russia and ukraine can be very bullish for bitcoin in a recent interview the fund manager and philanthropist explains that a considerable percentage of russia's reserves are stored in dollars and euros considering the ongoing massive friction between russia and the west this puts the european country in a pretty tight spot while you may argue that russia has provoked the sanctions against it this could happen to any country any time even when they are not attacking their neighbors miller explains that bitcoin ends the dependence on currencies such as the dollar or euro which give their owners immense control over other countries welcome to savvy finance this video examines bill miller's thoughts on how the russian ukraine war could make bitcoin bullish the billionaire investor also gives his thoughts on quantitative easing recession and the current state of the us economy if you find this video informative don't forget to click the like button and check out our other crypto related videos thanks for your continued support it is immensely appreciated in his interview bill miller talks at length about the great attributes of bitcoin first it is not controlled by any country which means no government can use it to control other countries throw in the assets fixed supply and other great attributes and you have a great cryptocurrency that miller believes stands out from other cryptocurrencies here is the billionaire explaining the supremacy of the world's biggest cryptocurrency i i think that basically if you look at russia right now russia has 16 of their 640 billion dollars of reserves in dollars they have 32 percent in euros so they have almost 50 percent of their reserves in currencies that are controlled by people who want to do them harm now i think we should do them harm but the point is from russia's point of view that's not a great position to be in they have 22 in gold and that's the only one only part of their reserves which other countries can't control so i think if you have if you're a country out there that is a non-reserve currency there's about 100 of them you might think about saying you know what maybe we should have something else out there that other countries cannot harm us with and that is that is impervious to uh to inflation or or to um to being manufactured in greater quantities and so i think it's i think it's very bullish for bitcoin particularly the rest of crypto is different i think i think bitcoin is unique and the rest of crypto should be considered as a sort of venture investments because they're all trying to solve other problems miller also gives his thoughts on the stock market the billionaire investor explains that the volatility we have seen over the past months is largely a response to the fear of recession however miller believes the economy is strong enough to avoid one he also states that there are still opportunities worth pursuing in the market here is miller's detailed explanation of the current market situation yeah there's there's emerging opportunities in the in the market we're at the beginning uh early stages of a regime change so from a from a fed easing accommodative bond buying uh set of uh policies to one that's the opposite so draining the fed balance sheet are down raising interest rates and that that raises the possibility or a possibility that they can make a mistake i mean they're not flawless obviously and so you've got what's happening with volatility is you're getting some probability of a mistake a recession priced in and that's that's uh i think something that you're going to have to live with for a while until it's clear that doesn't happen yeah so are you in the recession camp you know we we are we are all watching the yield curve we all have memories of the past decade when the fed tightened too quickly and had to keep undoing that so do you think investors should be braced for that possibility or do you think that it's not going to happen it's just creating some entry points you know one of the things that we try and do is try and not make forecasts about what's going to happen just try to understand what is happening so what is happening is the fed is signaling a tighter monetary policy what is happening is the economy is very strong unemployment's low earnings for many companies are at records uh state tax receipts are are rising way above expectations uh credit card usage is high and so all of those things the stimulus is tremendous so all those things say that the the economy is strong and the recession is not on the horizon doesn't mean it can't appear but that's what's going on and now and we're trying to invest in this particular environment and not one that we really can't forecast miller also talks about interest rates and whether or not the proposed hikes will do any good while declaring that bonds have all but lost their value he states that too many interest rate hikes will do no good for the economy moderation miller says is the key listen to the billionaire's explanation here well real rates are still sharply negative and especially if you just use headline inflation so i don't think the bond market is attractive at all i think the fed wants to tighten they would probably like to see the curve steep and moderately and we just don't see any value in in bonds here one more question on that do you have a point of view on whether it'd be better for them to run down the balance sheet some say maybe that would help long-end rates go up it would unflatten the curve but who knows right or would you prefer to see more rate hikes 50 basis point rate hikes anything there that you're watching you know we've been wondering why they're still buying mortgage-backed securities into this kind of a housing market so i think both of those things in moderation make sense they're letting the letting the letting the balance sheet drain off with some of the securities that they own as well as moderate tightening they're they're they're signaling very strongly that that they're not going to try and tighten too much they're going to be sensitive to a recession doesn't mean they'll get it right but i think they're looking at the right things though the situation is quite unfortunate miller is not the first person that has pointed out that the current geopolitical tension in ukraine can be beneficial to bitcoin so far ukrainian government has raised tens of millions of dollars worth of cryptocurrencies through donations there are also gut-wrenching stories of ukrainians fleeing your country with nothing but the close on their backs and their bitcoin wallets through it all bitcoin has been a beacon of hope how has bitcoin impacted you please share your stories in the comments section below and don't forget to hit the like button and stay tuned to savvy finance thanks for watching the video you
댓글 0