Marc Faber Genius Prediction - US Stock Market Will Go Down In 2016

요약 보기

2016년 미국 주식시장은 하락할 것이며 미국 경기 침체 진입 가능성이 있다는 견해 위주의 대담. [미국 주식시장] Faber는 2016년 미국 주식이 하락할 것으로 전망. 바론스 표지의 전략가들이 모두 낙관적이라는 점을 역발상 지표로 언급. 미국 주식은 중위 PER이 높고 올해 부진했으며, 소수 종목(페이스북·넷플릭스·아마존·구글)이 지수를 끌고 간 점을 지적. [금리·채권] 미국 10년물 국채가 경기 둔화 전망 때문에 매력적이라고 언급. 미국은 이미 경기 침체에 진입 중이라는 판단. [신흥국·부동산] 신흥국은 2011년 이후 미국 대비 크게 부진했으나 아직 본격 투자 시점은 아니고 매수 구간에 진입 중이라고 평가. 포르투갈·스페인·이탈리아 시골 부동산과 인도차이나(베트남·라오스·캄보디아·미얀마·태국) 부동산을 선호. 베트남 주식시장은 경제 호조 지속 시 매력적이라고 언급. [원자재] 부채 수준과 둔화된 세계경제로 원자재 가격이 압박받고 있으며 단기적으로 약세 지속 전망. 중국 경제 통계의 신뢰성에 의문을 제기하며 원자재 가격을 중국 경기의 좋은 지표로 봄. [통화정책] 세계 부채 부담으로 심각한 둔화 또는 침체 가능성이 있으며, 경기 둔화가 심해지면 추가 양적완화, 특히 호주 2009년식 현금 직접 지급처럼 직접적인 화폐 공급이 나올 수 있다고 전망. [투자 원칙] 주식은 대체로 장기 상승하므로 항상 비관적인 태도는 틀리기 쉽다는 점을 인정하면서도, 개별 투자는 현실적으로 판단해야 한다고 강조.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. I want to look ahead to see what investors should look for in 2016 mark where should investors place or money next year well I just read the other day aberrant covered and not one strategist was negative about the stock market in 2016 I think the US stock market will go down in 2016 I think 10 years US Treasuries are quite attractive because of my outlook for weakening economy and actually I believe that we're already entering a recession in the United States then emerging markets as you know have underperformed grossly the US since 2011 I think it may still be slightly premature to make a major commitment into emerging markets but they are moving into buying range and then I like real estate in the countryside in Portugal Spain Italy and in Indochina Indochina being essential Vietnam Laos Cambodia Myanmar Thailand and I think the Vietnamese stock market is very attractive at the economy continues to perform exceedingly well Frank where do you think commodities headed and that will determine a lot of how emerging markets will perform I think commodities are under pressure now because of the debt levels themselves you have a slowing world economy there's a lot of questionable statistics that come out of China but I think you can look at the commodity prices is a pretty good indication of what's going on in China and I think China is also a function of its customers you have deadly latent Japan get laid in the united states that when blatant you ozone and I think all of all of that debt is putting pressure on commodity prices as production slows down on Inge so I think for the initial term commodities are going to continue to stay weak I agree with mark I think the debt burdens of the world really are going to put us in if not in a recession at a very slow growth trajectory but there is going to come a point and again a lot of economics is predicting people and that's where it becomes so difficult but I think there will come a point where the slowdown in the economy will force another QE and maybe this time something have a more direct nature similar to what Australia did in 2009 they sent a check of nine hundred dollars for every man woman and child below a certain income level and that bypassed essentially the reserve banking system and so I if things slow down enough and commodity prices get low enough you'll probably see some more direct monetization I just want to go back to mark real quickly you called out the persistent optimism of the strategist at the cover of barons what stocks usually do go up every year or two till up most years throughout history whereas people who are perpetually negative are usually on the wrong side of things so even if occasionally stocks do go down and of course that happens is it general optimism the right way to think about things we just have a few moments I think the right way to think about any investment is to think realistically and realistically US equities are expensive the median PE is high the market this year hasn't performed well the typical stock it's being driven by just a few shares the fun stops Facebook Netflix Amazon and Google fiber's was particularly strong but the median right doc didn't perform well