저자: Cryptoteacher채널진행자 · 외국인
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Ray Dalio 인터뷰 인용 영상으로, 법정화폐 가치 하락과 비트코인 같은 '디지털 금' 자산 부각을 주장한다. 핵심 주장: 달리오는 비트코인을 포트폴리오의 작은 비중으로만 보며, 금과 함께 대체 자산의 한 축으로 본다. 법정통화는 1930년대처럼 재화·서비스 대비 가치가 하락할 수 있다고 주장한다. 거시 환경: 과도한 부채와 통화 공급, 좌우 포퓰리즘의 내부 갈등, 강대국 부상(중국)을 3대 테마로 제시한다. 연준이 수요를 줄이면서 경기를 꺾지 않을 수 있느냐가 핵심 질문이며, 달리오는 이를 부정적으로 본다. 금리 전망: 부채가 많아 금리를 충분히 높이기 어렵고, 3~4%대 금리로는 인플레이션을 보상하지 못한다고 본다. 연준·개인·외국인·미국 정부가 모두 채권을 매도하는 수급 문제로 금리 압박이 생긴다고 예상한다. 자산 시장: 현금과 채권의 안전성에 대한 40년 강세장 이후의 믿음이 흔들리는 패러다임 전환을 말한다. 주식과 암호화폐는 펌핑과 덤핑을 반복하는 상황으로 묘사된다. 에너지·ESG: 기후 정책과 ESG 압박으로 화석연료 투자가 억제되며 인플레이션이 악화될 수 있다고 본다. 달리오는 미국의 에너지 독립이 중요하다고 강조한다. 리스크: 진행자는 음모론적 서사를 덧붙이지만 근거 수치는 제시되지 않는다. 구체적 목표가나 기간 제시는 없다.
다듬은 글
we're developing through technology an ability for consumers to measure their own carbon footprint what does that mean that's where are they traveling how are they traveling what are they eating what are they consuming on the platform so individual carbon footprint tracker stay tuned we don't have it operational yet but this is something that we're working on one of the things that you and i have talked about a lot over the years is cryptocurrencies and bitcoin and in the past year or two it felt to me that you had shifted your view about them a little bit and actually got excited to think that maybe bitcoin and others could get interesting and i'm curious how you think about that now in terms of whether that's actually an inflation hedge or maybe it isn't no i um i think let me clarify again because some people make stereotypical i think that cryptocurrencies in particular i think blockchain's great um but let's call it a digital gold right i think a digital gold which would be a bitcoin type of thing is a um is something that probably in the interest of diversification of finding uh an alternative to gold has a little par a little spot relative to gold and then relative to other assets but i think that we're in an environment that we're now going to ask what is the new money okay so meaning fiat currencies and when we look at currencies if you hold currencies in the form of a debt right and so when i say cash is trash what i mean is that all currencies um in relationship to the euro in relationship to the yen all of those currencies like in the 1930s will be currencies that will go down in relationships to goods and services and we are in an environment where we're going to be looking at what are those assets what is the type of money that you could move between countries that's a medium of exchange and a store hold of wealth and that's so that's what i'm talking about and i'm saying that bitcoin has made a tremendous achievement over the last eleven years of being able to it's a tiny percentage of my portfolio i think the bitcoin people get too preoccupied with it the gold bugs get too preoccupied with it and i think you have to look at the broader set of assets that serve that purpose so we we keep asking the same question of everybody what do you think what do you think is going to happen to this crazy economy of ours well what do you see happening here i think like you know three major themes that we have to understand right um the creation of too much debt and too much money right and the amounts that never existed in our lifetime but existed many times in the past in the 1930-45 period number one so we'll talk about that i hope number two is the internal conflict populism of the left and the right and what that is doing both politically and that of course have economic uh considerations and number three is the rising of great powers to challenge the existing great power and existing world order now if you bring those things down here we are having a monetary policy okay where are we in the monetary policy and what's the big question so if you want me to answer that so i think right i think that big question is can the fed effectively uh reduce demand without breaking the back of the economy okay and rather than just jumping to the answer i always like to deal with the mechanics of behind the answer you know and um i think the answer is no but here's the reason why an interest rate uh when there's a lot of debt one man's debts are another man's financial assets and they have to balance both of those things and so they will not be able to raise interest rates to a high enough level to adequately provide a real return to investors so if you think about the rising rates and we say three percent right is an interest rate right or even four percent in an interest rate that is not going to be an amount of money that's adequate to compensate for the inflation rate and we're in a paradigm shift i think a paradigm is uh you know something happens for 10 years an environment for 10 years and at the end of that 10 years people believe everything that happened in the prior 10 years and then they get a surprise right and then they start to change and something like for example do i leave cash is a safe investment or bonds are a safe investment after a 40-year bull market and those types of things that begins to shift as they start to think am i getting a real return so there's going to be a supply demand balance most importantly the federal reserve is going to sell individuals are selling foreigners are selling and the us government is selling because it has to fund its deficit so there's going to be a supply demand problem that means that it produces a squeeze because so much money was put out at such cheap rates right and so much financing was taken that they it'll be difficult to achieve that balance welcome to the crypto teacher and guys you know i come back with that video just to make you think and we have ray dalio one of the few who talks about the rising power of china and we can hear the drums beating but ray dalio calls bitcoin a digital go the new money and he clearly stated that fiat currencies are over and we know it is they will slowly roll out the robot's algorithms and drones and then we'll start the hyper deflation but before we get there they gotta bring america to his knees we know the fed created 20 of all money in existence in one year that's what caused all this inflation so the nwo causes the problem wait for the reaction and run in with the solution and we see all the chaos going on but we know there's order out of chaos they printed the money put all these people out of work raise wages which is soon enough is going to be a problem and then also the supply chain and what's the solution the robots algorithms and drones and kryptos and right now we have stocks and cryptos pumping and dumping because like ray dalio stated everybody's selling and we know larry thinks aladdin is controlling it all it's about running the whole system and now we are biting telling the truth we're going to be going through some pain inflation is going to get worse because they want to move us over to clean energy and i've done several videos with jerome powell talking about climate change climate agenda we know they made trillions of dollars with all actually took over the world with the petrol dollar now it's time to make trillions and trillions of dollars moving us over to clean energy and that's all we keep hearing about is carbon credits because everything you do will be tracked and remember the crypto teacher told you because he knows when it comes to the new world order it's all planned out you have a wonderful day they've been induced or um because of the the maybe larry fink he's running a big financial institution doesn't want hydrocarbon products so he's pressuring uh these companies so this it predates the body i would certainly blame it on on you know on on the left side of of the equation uh and on climate uh hysteria is one of the reasons that we've gotten to this point but it's not biden it's it's just it's everywhere it's it it's in europe you can't look anywhere where there isn't pressure uh being brought to bear on fossil fuel companies to leave fossil fuels in the ground well you can look at the united states in 2017 2018 2019 and 2020.
and and listen i i agree with you does wall street bear some of the responsibility absolutely does larry think personally there's a larry fink surcharge every time you fill up your tank you can thank larry for the massive and inappropriate esg pressure and by the way when trump was president one of the things i i sat in the oval office with him and urged him to press back against wall street using esg to try to leverage and force people to stop uh energy production america being energy independent is incredibly important for our national security and also for the vibrancy of our economy greener options watch this when it comes to the gas prices uh we're going through an incredible transition that is taking place that god willing when it's over we'll be stronger and the world will be stronger and less relying on fossil fuels when this is over this is going to be a hall this is going to take some time we're going to a different economy and we're going to be learning more about that as we go but clearly we're we're learning that things can be done uh from remote locations we're learning that technology can replace people even more than we thought we're not going back to the same economy we're going we're recovering but to a different economy and it'll be one that is more leveraged to technology and i worry that that is going to make it even more difficult than it was for for many workers in silicon valley and my friends who work in technology know that what we did to the manufacturing workers we are now going to do to the retail workers the call center workers the fast food workers the truck drivers and then even bookkeepers accountants insurance agents lawyers and on and on through the economy so what happened to the manufacturing workers a very clear sign of this effort and china has big plans for this they intend to seed um their digital yuan into the global environment by giving it away to visitors at next winter's olympics when they arrive at the airport they're going to get you want digital wallets they're going to receive digital u1 they're going to use it throughout their visits to beijing and then they're going to take it back to their home countries they've seen this as a huge advantage why because who controls the underlying protocols who controls the underlying standards of the future of money will control the future most powerful person in the world is the storyteller the storyteller says the vision values and agenda of an entire generation to come steve jobs and guys you know i truly believe in this when you look at the new world order they're the storytellers and that's the reason why i wrote my new wrote order book but guys now it's time to change the current generation and i wrote three kids books you know i love the trinity because i understand the power of that senate so i have three books we have an opportunity to change the generation to educate not just me but i want to show you that i take action on a daily basis and i want you to take action on a daily basis whether it's your job whether it's in your community we have a opportunity right now to educate the masses i posted this on my twitter account please share but this is a short clip of the three books there's going to be a clothing line and action figure please get these books for your kids nephews cousins friends so therefore we can start the re-education now because as we see the fourth industrial revolution foundation is definitely here robots algorithms drones taking humanity out the picture we have to re-educate but let's get into the video part one okay and goes to china it's mandatory to get part one part two and part three of this series it's time to re-educate generation z
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