Charlie Munger's Insightful Views on Crypto, AI, Tesla, BYD and Alibaba

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결론: 멍거는 AI를 혼합된 축복으로 보고, BYD는 고평가이나 성장 여력이 크며, 알리바바 투자는 실수였고, 암호화폐는 쓸모없고 해롭다고 평가했다. AI 관련: 인공지능은 중요하지만 과대 선전이 많으며 암호/만능 해결책이 아니다. 보험 인수 등 일부 용도에선 잘 작동하나, 사무용 빌딩 구매 같은 일상 용도에 쓰는 것은 도움이 안 된다고 봤다. 테슬라 관련: 테슬라는 지난해 중국에서 가격을 두 차례 인하했고, BYD는 가격을 인상했다. BYD 관련: BYD는 중국에서 테슬라를 크게 앞서며, 제조 공간 규모가 맨해튼 상당 면적에 달한다. 주가수익비율(PER) 약 50배로 매우 높은 가격이다. 다만 올해 자동차 판매가 약 50% 늘어날 것으로 예상된다. 버크셔는 BYD 주식 일부를 약 1년 전 더 높은 가격에 매도했다. 현재 BYD 시가총액은 메르세데스 벤츠 전체보다 크다. 알리바바 관련: 잭 마가 공산당을 비판하는 연설 후 정부 압박을 받았고 이는 알리바바에 타격을 줬다. 멍거는 알리바바 투자를 가장 큰 실수 중 하나로 꼽았고, 중국 인터넷 지위에 매료됐지만 소매 경쟁의 본질을 간과했다고 인정했다. 암호화폐 관련: 멍거는 암호화폐를 강하게 비판한다. 국가 통화가 문명의 교환을 가능하게 했으며, 이를 대체한다는 발상은 어리석다고 본다. 정부가 이를 허용한 것은 잘못이며, 중국이 금지한 판단이 옳았다고 주장한다. 리스크: 중국 규제 리스크와 과열된 밸류에이션이 언급됐다. 출연자 전망: BYD 주가는 고평가이나 성장 지속 가능성이 있다는 입장이다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. I think artificial intelligence is very important is also a lot of crazy hype on the subject artificial intelligence is not going to cure cancer it's not going to do everything that we want done and there's a lot of nonsense in it too so I regard it as a mixed blessing all this artificial intelligence some people have used it in some things like Insurance underwriting pretty well but a lot of people try and use it in ordinary things like buying Office Buildings or something and I think that's way more I don't think it's going to help anybody to buy an office building not very much anyway Tesla last year reduced its prices in China twice byd increased its prices we're direct competitors we're so much ahead of by it did I mean byd is so much ahead of Tesla in China it's like a it's almost ridiculous if you look at byd which most people never heard of if you count all the manufacturing space they have in China to make cars it would amount to a big percentage of all the land in Manhattan Island and nobody ever heard of them a few years ago be what he's talking about 50 times earnings that is a very high price on the other hand they're likely to have increased their auto sales by another 50 this year we sold part of ours by the way years ago not years but about a year ago at a much higher price than it's selling for now we're not a many Berkshire we're not going to have a big correlation between us and what Berkshire does you could understand why some people will sell Berkshires byd stock at 50 times earnings at the current price of byd stock little byd is worth more than the entire Mercedes Corporation well of course it was a very interesting thing Jack ma was a dominant capitalist in Alibaba and one day he got up and made a public speech where he basically said the Communist party is full of Milwaukee they don't know their asthma durable there's no damn good and I'm smart and of course the Communist Party didn't particularly like his speech and pretty soon he just sort of disappeared from view for months on end and now he's out of byd it was pretty stupid it's like poking a bear in the nose with a sharp stick it's not smart and and Jack ma Got way out of line by popping off the way he did to the Chinese government and of course it hurt Alibaba and but I regard alibaba's one of the worst mistakes I ever made in in thinking about Alibaba I got Charmed with the idea of their position on the Chinese internet I didn't stop to realize there's still a goddamn retailer it's it's going to be a competitive business the Internet it's not going to be a Cakewalk for everybody I don't think there are good arguments against my position I think the people who oppose my position are idiots and and so I don't think there is a rational argument against my possession this is an incredible thing naturally people like to run gambling conceals or other people lose and the people who invented this cryptocrapo which is my name for it and sometimes I call it cryptocrabble and sometimes I call it well crypto and it's just a ridiculous that anybody would buy this stuff you can think of hardly nothing on Earth there's done more good to the human race than currency National currencies they were absolutely required to turn man from a goddamn successful ape yeah but model modern successful humans in human civilization because it enabled all these convenient exchanges so if somebody says I'm going to create something that sort of replaces the national currency it's like saying I'm going to replace the National Air you know it's it's asinine it is it isn't even slightly stupid it's massively stupid and and of course it's very dangerous and of course the governments were totally wrong to permit it and of course I'm not proud of my country for allowing this crap what I call the crypto to it's worthless it's no good it's crazy it'll do nothing but harm it's anti-social to allow it and the guy who made the correct decision on this is the Chinese leader the Chinese leader took one look at crypto and he says not in my China and boom Oh well there isn't any crypto in China he's right and we're wrong