저자: TamandeepSingh · 외국인
요약 보기
부동산(토지)은 대출 레버리지를 고려하면 연 70% 수준의 수익이 가능해 주식보다 유리하다고 주장. 마진 투자는 약 30% 수익이 가능하나 반대매매·손실 위험이 크다고 경고. 큰 지출이 예정된 자금은 투자하지 말고, 블루칩도 단기 변동이 크다고 강조(알파벳 2021~2022 하락 예시). 감정적 투자 대신 규율과 공부가 필요하다는 결론.
다듬은 글
Before you buy a stock, can you look yourself in the mirror and answer these three simple questions? Hello everyone, I am Tamandeep and we are continuing with our finance series and today we will analyze a few important questions that you need to ask yourself before buying a stock. So the first question is do I own a land?
This might seem not related to stocks but it is actually quite important. See, I believe every person on earth should own land or a home, right? But it's not really about what I think. It's about facts. So, let's analyze a few facts here. So, in India from quarter 2 of 2023 to quarter 2 of 2025, we saw an average of 50% in increase in land rates.
So which turns out to be 22.3% and in 2024 D. E. Shaw proclaimed a return of 18%. D. E. Shaw is a very big hedge funding company and let's assume you are excellent at investing in stocks. So your best case scenario turns out to be 18%. So as we can see land is more profitable right? But wait, it gets better.
We don't really buy land on cash, do we? We actually take loan. So that actually affects the calculation of return. Let's analyze it a bit, right? Let's say you took loan and your down payment was 200. So the total amount turned out to be 1,000. I am assuming 20% down payment. So it's a home loan. So rate of interest is less.
So 7.5% rate of interest. That seems genuine, right? Okay. And what else? How much return did you get? Let's be a bit stingy here. And let's say 20%. 20% return you got. So 20% on 1000 that became 1,200. So you now have 1,200 or the property worth 1200, right? But your original investment was 200 and your profit is 200.
So it's so current profit is 200. Let's subtract the interest because you need to pay that to the bank, right? That's not your money. So 7.5% of the original principle that was 800 because the total amount was 1,000 is about 60 is exactly 60 actually. So minus 60 that turns out to be 140. So on an initial investment of 200 you earn 140 which is 70%.
Now that is beyond impressive. There is no stock in the world that can give you 70% while being safe. Some people do earn that much but that's just luck. One year they will learn, next year they will lose everything. In a market your expectation is about 15%. And that is what you need to keep if you want to be safe in market and not lose everything.
Here you get 70% return, right? And it even gets better. The interest you pay to the bank has tax benefits and this is common to nearly every country in the world. And the long-term capital gain that you get on residential property also has tax exemptions all over the world, India, US, everywhere. But some people will say that sir, we can also buy stocks on margin, right?
Which means you can also get loan from a broker to buy stocks and that is true and in that way you can increase your profit on stocks as well. But let's analyze it. So in this you need to put 50% down payment. I mean around you what amount you put you are allowed to get load of that amount only. Right?
terminology of loan and buying on margin is a bit different. I am using similar to keep it easy to understand. Right? So you invested 200 and the total amount turned out to be 400 because 200 was invested by the broker. Okay. Let's be generous here. Let's say you get return of 20% here as well. So return of 20% on 400 = 480.
So total return was 80 right rest was amount. So let's subtract the percent rate right rate of interest in let's say you got the best deal in the market and the best deal would still be at least 10%. In actual in reality you your expectation is about 20% rate of interest but let's just assume 10. So 10% of 400 is sorry 10% of 200 not 400 right 400 was total 200 was the loan.
So 10% of 200 is 20 the remaining amount is 60. So 60 in uh profit on initial investment of 200 that is 30%. It's still very impressive right? The best case scenario that we said was 18% and when you are buying on margin you can expect a 30%. Actually this is quite right figure. When you are buying on margin the profit that you would like to see is about 25 to 30%.
This is very accurate. But is that really though? You see, buying on margin carries a large amount of risk. You need to keep a minimal maintenance. It's in the contract while you get the loan. So if your stock falls beyond a certain point, your broker will force you to invest more money in it. And in such contracts there is very high chance actually that you might lose more than what you initially invested.
It's a very risky. So be very careful while buying on margin. Nevertheless, in the best case scenario of buying of margin is 30%. And the normal case scenario for the real estate or property or land is 70%. Right? So now you know why I say an opportunity to buy a land is far better than buying stocks.
Okay. So now that that's done, let's move to the second question. Do I have time? You see, patience is required to earn money in this market. So do I have time? Is there a very big expense coming up? Let's say like your son's college, you need to pay tuition fees. So can I really invest at this side?
I say don't. If there is some big expenditure coming up, don't invest in the market. So some people will say maybe we can buy blue chip stocks, right? They are safe and they will give us some return. But will they? You see blue chip stocks will give you profit in the long term because their stock price is very predictable in long term.
But in short term you never know. Let's see with an example. So this is the share price of Alphabet. Alphabet is the parent company of Google, right? So in long-term from let's say 2016 to 2025, you will see quite a increase in stock price. That's good, right? But pay attention here. On 15th October 2021, it was 141 USD, right?
And on 30th December 2022, it was 88 USD. You see, if you only have time of a year or two, even blue chick stockes are very risky. So some big expenditure is coming up. Don't don't invest in market. It's as simple as that. Okay. So coming back to our questions. Now we have addressed two questions. Let's move on to the most important question in this list.
Do I have what it takes? Do I have what it takes to hold my hand when everyone is buying? Do I have what it takes to refuse to listen to my gut when it says I feel lucky today? Do I have the discipline, the dedication to study finance, to research stocks before buying? If the answer is yes, then stay tuned. Next video drops soon.
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