저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
Ed Yardeni의 S&P500 연말 목표 8250 제시. 주당 선행 이익 약 400달러 × 밸류에이션 배수 20 ≈ 8000, 이익 개선과 배수 확장으로 8250 상향. 시장 상승은 'FEMA(Fabulous Earnings Momentum)' 이익 모멘텀이 견인. 기술주는 1999~2000년과 달리 버블이 아니며 반도체 등은 여전히 저평가. 최근 조정은 이익 증가 후 배수 하락에 따른 일시적 공포 매도로 해석. 시장 확대를 근거로 IT 비중 유지 제안.
다듬은 글
In today's new style of flattery. Today we are going to talk about that tremendous market rally which is probably surprising every investor. We will decode the math-based analysis of the famous Mahre Mashiad Adiani and see why the stock market is continuously going up. It's not just about shooting arrows in the air.
Here we will talk about absolutely concrete numbers. So let's get started. The biggest question that is circling everyone's mind right now is why is the market going against gravity ? I mean, whenever we watch the news, we only see negative situations and tensions. It seems like the situation is very bad.
But the market seems to be in some other mood. Breaking the principles, it is continuously moving upwards. After all, what is the power behind this great flight that is not allowing it to come down? The answer to this question lies in this one number: 8250. This is Ed Yadin's SNP 500 target for the end of this year.
This is indeed a bold prophecy. But do you know what is even more surprising ? He considers this target to be fairly conservative. That means, according to him, the market is now just 6.5% away from its target and achieving it is not a big deal. Okay, now let's look at this slide. Things will become clearer.
On the one hand, there are news headlines that are filled with fear about the tensions in the Middle East and the Federal Reserve's policy. But if we look at the right side, the reality of the market is completely different. Our market here looks very strong and companies are seeing a tremendous increase in their revenues.
There is a huge difference between the two things. Isn't it ? To understand this situation, Yardini has given a very interesting acronym. FEMA. This means fabulous earnings momentum, i.e., a tremendous and spectacular succession of earnings. Simply put, this is the real engine that is currently overcoming all the external threats and fears in the market.
As Yardini himself does in this court Fabulous Earnings Momentum. In fact, everything is based on this. This is the gist of our entire session today. All other things are in their place. But income is the only force that is pushing this market forward. When income is continuously increasing then it becomes almost impossible to stop the market from moving forward.
So let us first understand this calculation a little. The first part is forward earnings and market calculations. Before looking at the calculations, it is important to know what this forward earnings is? In simple alpha, it is a point-in-time average of the income expectations for this year and the next year.
And the truth is that the market is currently moving ahead only by looking at these possibilities of the future. Now see how simple and easy the math of Yaarni is. Let us understand this step by step. The first step, according to Tawakuat, would be forward earnings up to $400 per share. The second step is to multiply the valuation multiple of such a market by 20 and the third step results in a direct SAP target of 8000.
You see, this is not some complicated science but a very simple calculation. But the matter does not end here at 8000. The target was 8250. That's because Yardini believes earnings could be better than expected, and the market's valuation multiple could expand. When better revenues and higher multiples are achieved, the figures automatically take the shape of higher targets.
Now let us come to another very important topic. second part. Is the tech sector really in a bubble? People often compare today's situation to the tech bubble of 1999 and 2000. But if we look at the 99 bubble, it was just based on hype and air. The valuations there had no connection with reality. Today's market is completely different.
Today the tax sector is trading at almost the same valuation multiple as the rest of the market and this comparison is a complete game changer. This means that the information technology sector is actually on sale rather than being in a bubble. Generally, growth stocks always trade at very high multiples.
But here important sectors like semiconductors are still considered cheap. So all the talk about the tech bubble bursting near Yardini is completely baseless and should be forgotten. Now let's talk a little about psychology. Third part: The nuances of the rally. The recent dips in the market have been explained very effectively by a note from Cital Securities.
What happened was that first there was an increase in income due to which the valuation multiple came down a bit. Seeing this, the capitalists got scared and immediately started withdrawing their profits. But throughout all this, the fundamentals of the market remained strong. As a result, those who sold their shares in a hurry regretted it and eventually that capital quickly came back into the market.
How beautifully this court describes this entire situation. The valuation multiple came down because earnings were up and investors got a little nervous. Now he is regretting it. In reality, the fundamentals of the market were never weak. Just a few moments of panic had taken prices away from reality.
And from here we come to our last part. The fourth part is the expanding scope of the market. Because this boom in the market is now spreading throughout the country. Therefore, Yardeni's suggestion is to keep market weighting in information technology. This means that instead of investing excessively in one area, adopt a balanced approach so that you can take full advantage of every aspect of the expanding market.
So finally a point where we all should stop and think. With fabulous earnings momentum playing out so clearly, are investment decisions still being made based on the fearful headlines and noise in the newspapers, or on the clear calculations and realities that we saw in this report today? The decision is in your hands whether to focus on noise or pure mathematical reality.
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