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2022년 4월 21일 미국 증시 급락 배경을 분석. 파월의 공격적 긴축 발언과 50bp 금리인상 가능성이 하락 요인이며, 기술주·반도체·나스닥·S&P500은 지지선 이탈 위험을 경고. 반면 항공(JETS)은 자금 유입으로 유일하게 상승. 금은 지지 반등 신호, 유가는 버티는 중. 주요 빅테크 실적을 앞두고 방향성은 실적 결과에 달렸다고 봄.
다듬은 글
well hello everyone and welcome back to the channel in today's video we discuss stock crypto and commodities markets right now including what just happened with this massive sell-off in risk over the last 24 hours yes the fed has something to do with it and you know what they say sometimes it's better not to fight the fed but realistically we're at supports again and we're putting pressure back on the market if you're a bear you're having a good time if you're a bull you're a little bit sad but depends on which sector you're in just as usual in these markets stay tuned as we break it all down for you right now recap show here for the markets closed 21st of april 2022 if you enjoy stock crypto or commodities markets remember to subscribe and if you want to support the channel give us a thumbs up on the video wall street ends down yes it did it was a massive red day powell suggesting aggressive fed policy the word aggressive well that's a bit questionable isn't it come on pal what are you trying to do knock around the market actually he may be trying to do that but fed chair powell says 50 basis point rate hike is on the table now this is nothing new the market already knew that pal was going to do this as in have a 50 basis point rate hike it's pretty much an assured thing the market's pricing that into a degree i think it was already selling off into this event so it was a mixture of things occurring now you could disagree with that but realistically this is just what wall street wants to do and here's the best storyline to do with it it's sold off of resistance on the nasdaq and we'll take a look at that later there was a really big trap that happened in the first hour of trade and again if you start to understand and you can react to these traps during day trading sessions you may do better so we'll check that out soon let's talk about q1 earnings so far though are they as bad as everyone makes out well beat rate currently is at 78 beats 122 misses 35 not too bad in some ways but we haven't seen the big tech yet that comes next week microsoft apple amazon some of the big heavy hitters this will be a massive week so make sure you subscribe to the channel because it's going to be a crazy time i can tell already based on what those earnings results show us some bright lights did occur though so let's take a look at that just soon and as we mentioned the first hour or the first half an hour here it went bullish and the market went bullish in a big way and that was then followed by just selling and selling and selling all the way through the session into jerome's speech and they kind of just consistently sold it all the way into the close into supports if we take a look at the sectors there were some bright shining lights as we mentioned jets one of the sectors that we've been heavily discussing here the last two weeks massive rotation going into it great result there from some of the airline companies and it was the only sector really up on the day and i guess it deserves to be because that's exactly where you could see the money flow going to remember it's not always about tech guys and unfortunately owning tech through 2022 so far has been brutal and possibly it may even get worse especially if the big big tech stocks fail remember apple is holding up amazingly well imagine if that failed to or it missed on the earnings my goodness it would be pretty wild let's talk about something that was interesting though and definitely different to the norm and that comes down to metals and mining and gold and even energy was selling off specifically metals and mining so these sectors are coming into earnings with some incredible expectations if you look at some stocks some of them are up 70 80 even 90 coming into earnings now i don't know whether they can hold up those earnings results and that's the problem could this become a broad market sell-off 2022 so far has been all about tech getting sold off but will it be a broad market sell-off across most other sectors remember if you don't have metals and mining going up every single day because of inflation and the fed's saying oh it may have peaked inflation may have peaked but we don't know it does that cause a real nightmare here on the s p 500 and nasdaq and the double dip that often does happen during midterm election years that we've discussed that's really one of the big calls there it looks like snap missed but i think the stock held okay after hours we'll see how it ends up opening and we've got another big one on the friday open which is american express but next week earnings that's where it's all and that's everything that it's all about now in terms of people talking about in some type of recession coming to the u.s or this being bigger than maybe it will be i'm not so sure about that i think this is a fairly relevant chart i'll bring it up just quickly remember this is the percentage of u.s treasury yield curves that are inverted and in general you you see before recessions now for a very long time 50 plus of all those yield curves inverting that hasn't happened at this stage now you could argue that's because the fed is so behind on policy that they're not even close to getting it to the right rate but certainly something to watch here and we'll continue to bring this chart up sometimes during the next couple of years so you guys are reminded because i think that's a very very important area here for us to remember in these markets and to understand the vix the volatility index of course fear was rising a huge amount of puts entered back into the system we'll talk about that soon and if we move over here to the us tenure this was more bad news for the technology sector tenure didn't decline we still haven't seen the lightning bolt to the downward side that is a peak a trough a lower peak and a lot of trough when that happens maybe you can start to move into technology and say okay the risk is getting less for me to buy tech at this stage we're going towards that three percent and it looks like the us 10 year wants to hit that level this is a bit of a resistance zone for it though so expect the us tenure to hover here soon or at least we hope it does what i think the surprise for the market was is this one the two-year the fed comes out they say stuff about policy let's see what the market interprets it as that's going to be doing better than us at figuring out what the fed's really saying and the market didn't like it they kept pushing the two-year up even higher it's now sitting at 2.75 so that's another massive increase in the two-year and as we know again technology and the markets don't necessarily like this but part of the stats that are out there everyone just remember this part of the stats are when the fed actually rate hikes the market often turns around and goes positive and people scratch their head and they say oh why does that happen it's because the sell-off occurs into the rate hike so remember the stats are very positive usually after the rate hikes for markets but that's because they sell the rumor they sell all of this speculation coming into it and then when it happens they reverse just like they reversed in march on us that's the kind of concept we had in 2022 so far and i still think it is playing out here to a degree now we mentioned pcc call ratios were increasing absolutely look at this large number of puts that was put in the market maybe a lot of these are going for friday expiry so that could be a super interesting level for you to be looking at throughout the friday day seeing where all the big strikes are going to be sitting for the spy the qqq etc and yeah book call ratio much higher showing a decent amount of puts were entered into the system over the last 24 hours let's move over the dxy it bounce thanks to papa pal meaning that it's a bit of risk off if the dollar index is rising often that can mean that smart money is taking money out of the markets and putting it into a liquid asset being the dollar index and as we know the us dollar is also a bit of a safe haven so money is flowing into it from that aspect how did this serve gold well it wasn't too bad gold actually held up and it created a tweezer here in the four hour so you'll notice we have a bullish rejection a bullish rejection and a follow-through that's a good sign for gold traders and if you're looking for it to go bullish of course breaking past this 1960 level is going to put a double bottom in place and resume that upward trend that really broke through at this point over here could it happen absolutely is that a better trade than sometimes the market sometimes it is i mean these types of positions are coming off the key zones you think about it gold has bounced off the previous resistance lines which are all over these closes you put on the line chart to really exemplify those closes we've got the tweezer over here things are looking better all of a sudden for gold and it's starting to uh yeah really look a lot lot nicer remember gold versus other currencies can be the best bet if the us dollar is strong gold versus yen has been an incredible one that some people in the community have been messaging me about and i don't blame them it was a very smart well thought out decision let's move over to oil oil is holding its own it's kind of breaking above this 104 area and then it's consolidating through there let's look at the daily chart just have a quick look at this it looks okay long leg doji no clothes above the high of the doji at this stage so it's not really a decision made to go bullish but oil is holding i would guess okay in this current market condition let's move over to the surprise and that was of course jets well for some people it was a surprise really nice earnings result here from ual and as we saw massive trough peak high trough huge amount of money flowing in here a monstrous max payne kind of scenario down in the bottom in this area and a downward trend that's now being breached above so are there people speculating on the travel index i would say yes they're basically moving into this idea that people are paying for services and the travel trade is to a degree on obviously you've got to be very risk-averse here earnings have come out for most of these airlines on the surface it looks better and that's why it's holding up much nicer than the other sectors in the market let's move over here to some other sectors that aren't holding up so well semiconductors comes to mind now a lot of people been making a big deal with me about this being a head and shoulders i'm not huge on uh taking bearish head and shoulders because i think it's harder to short in the market than it is too long for most people it's obviously if you're short you have to have slightly different scenarios and slightly different setups but look we're back on the support here for semiconductors that we hit back in march that we hit during the lows and things like nvidia are trading at 200 which we've long argued is a great stock with a really high valuation the market is pressing anything that has high valuations it's all about that that's really what they're punishing down they're just saying get rid of all the froth in these markets and and in some ways that plays into what the fed wants as well so semiconductors on support you have to really look at that and say do i want to take it or am i going to look for some kind of lightning bolt turn around double bottom on the smaller time frame whatever it might be some type of buy signal a lot of volume a lot of transactions super critical point let's take a look at the dax so we've been looking at the dax from risk on risk off assets and it rejected in a massive way i mean it ended up creating a giant shooting star on the daily off the resistance of 14.6 and just sold straight back down not really a great sign when you're looking at something like the dax and it's doing that but certainly one that we can check out let's look at iwm another one that sold straight back into support you can see what's at stake here in the friday and monday sessions next week it all comes down to earnings clearly this market that's the problem with trading sometimes if you trade into earnings it can be very very sporadic and sometimes it may not make sense to you because the market is doing all these basic these crazy calculations in the background trying to figure out what the new fair value of the market is based on every single data input it can be very fast like it is right now let's move over to the nasdaq so the nasdaq sold off the resistance and this was the fourth touch too look at this they sold off the resistance straight on that 265 so hopefully not too many people entered the bull here i guess and it just went bang straight back down into support and it actually closed a little bit under that and at the time this recording it's even a little bit lower again so is this signaling all the way back down to 13 000 kind of 100 i mean that's the argument that most people are making now and i don't blame them for making such an argument down under this level if we do break under this oh watch out because in history if you go back and you think about what that's generally meant it's generally meant a 200 sma that's what's happened several times in the past for the s p 500 it's gone really deep once it smashes through that 50 in the low again so we need to be careful about that hopefully it doesn't happen i'm sure a lot of people are a bit scared of that kind of thing right now if it closes this weekly like it looks right at this stage that's certainly another negative here another thing chalked up but really this is mostly about earnings if earnings can't come to the party when the big ones apple microsoft everything else happens we're not going to get too much clear direction i think for a lot of people clarity is going to need to be found there do we sell the rip right now i do think there will be sellers if we do rip up and i would expect probably the friday session to try to rip around fire some buyers and then of course maybe that's where the sellers come back in you've got to be very careful but you're really targeting now that selling of the rip that is occurring at this stage let's move over to the s p 500 it closed on support so this is the market that i would usually use as more of an indicator of the general health of the us and it went up and it got so close to that 45 20.
45 20 was the target after it broke through here it rallied in the morning it stopped at what 45 13 ish 12 13 and then sold off and just kept selling and if you look at this on a one hour chart you'll notice it just goes bam bam bam bam bam so it didn't happen before jerome's speech it just kept going and he he was just part of the catalyst so we sold into the support this is where you hope rallies happen and i think really a lot of people are going to be targeting bull moves on the friday and again it comes down to the options if you think about it max payne's sitting at 445 so that is a little bit further away here we're sitting at 4 400 or just underneath at this stage if it's going to go up to max payne it's got a pretty big rally in it and i'm not sure if it can get that much done but certainly that's where the friday at this stage looks to be having if it closed underneath these lows we've got a big weekend video to discuss because at that point everything really changes in this market and all of a sudden we go okay every single sell the rip continues to happen that's a huge weekly rejection at that point you can see it here on the charts massive weekly rejection new low formed you've just got to think that these markets are coming right back down 4300 200 and underneath that potentially that weekly 200 sma that would be pretty brutal for a lot of people out there and unfortunate indeed for the markets let's talk about bitcoin look are we in a crypto winter most of that comes down to risk on risk off bitcoin looked really great over the last 24 hours and it suffered due to really i think the stock market more than anything else at this stage we're kind of in this point obviously there could be more pain to come between that 900 1 000 days historically very bad after the harving event we'll continue to just bring that up so we've got it and bitcoins currently still holding the downward trend so this is really all that super support it rallied through that resistance so this is the 41.5 and at that point it looks set to go towards 45 it stops at 43 because of the stock market and then just gets tanked i mean that's really what happened the stock market stopped you here and you can kind of tell because you look at btc shorts it's not like the whales were coming in and placing any more shorts in fact they were reducing positions which is usually a positive sign for the bitcoin position and bitcoin held up the best i mean really you look at it versus ethereum ethereum's back on support they all look bad on these candles if you want to stay out of these markets i wouldn't blame you i mean it's it's really all about earnings and sometimes that's a risk that are you willing to take is it more of a gamble is it an educated guess you know what are you doing in these markets clarity is something that we talk about a lot here and sometimes you have it and sometimes you don't but when you know bigger news is coming forward and if that news ends up being positive you can kind of see the knock-on effect think about the banks so far in earnings season they've held up relatively well think about the airlines they've held up really well each one has been reporting really really well and that's pushed jets to being one of the best performers over the next two weeks or last two weeks i guess it would be by now so some exceptional kind of trades there and ideas but really it's just about getting clarity and knowing where that money flow is and whether you can see something that makes sense and is going to follow through at this point most of these markets are confused they're waiting for that big bit of earnings news and i just think i think there's caution in the air from that perspective if you haven't already come and follow us at fxevolution on twitter we're getting close to 5 000 followers thanks to you guys so thank you so much and in terms of news for the end of the week there's not really that much coming out so fed pal has done the damage obviously they say don't fight the fed at this stage it looks like tech just continuously gets hit and there isn't really much respite for it will friday rally a lot of it has to do with whether they want to make maximum profit off options but that doesn't necessarily mean that we're out of the woods yet on bearish movement it's all down to the earnings in the next week thanks so much subscribe if you enjoyed today's video and we'll see you in the next one bye for now
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