저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 채널은 엑스페디아(EXPE)를 '긍정적 재평가 후보'로 보며, 마이클 버리 보유 가능성을 근거로 추가 리서치를 권한다. 가격·성과: 현재 주당 약 110.22달러, 연초 대비 약 26% 상승으로 S&P500(약 20%)을 앞선다. 다만 10년 기준 연 약 8% 복리로 시장에 뒤처졌고, 금융위기 이후 18년 연 약 5%로 부진했다. 사업 구조: 세계 2위 온라인여행사로 숙박 약 76%, 항공권 3%, 렌터카·크루즈 등 14%, 광고 약 7%. Trivago 인수로 여행 미디어로도 확장. 정량 분석 1~3(수익성·성장): ROIC는 최근 약 13%지만 5년 평균은 약 3.7%로 평균 이하(X). 매출·순이익·잉여현금흐름이 5년 성장 기준을 충족(체크). 주당순이익·주당FCF 성장도 충족(체크, 주식 희석 연 약 5%). 재무 건전성: 2020년 약 46억달러 현금 소진 후 부채를 상당히 상환, 현재 부채 약 19억달러, 현금 약 3.74억달러. 최근 12개월 FCF 약 23억달러(체크). 밸류에이션: 5년 평균 FCF 수익률 기준 시장 요구수익률 대비 충분(체크). 2단계 DCF 적정가 주당 약 128달러로 현재가 대비 약 18% 상승 여력(체크 6번 포함 판단). 정성 요인 긍정: 지배적 네트워크 효과, 고정비 7~7.5억달러·변동비 2억달러 절감, 원격근무 확대에 따른 장기 여행 수요 가능성. 리스크: 구글의 무료 트래픽 흡수로 마케팅비 증가, 인플레이션에 따른 여행 수요 훼손, 부킹·트립어드바이저·구글·아마존 등 경쟁 심화. 진행자는 투자 조언이 아니라고 명시. 출연자 전망: 명확한 1~3개월 방향 발언은 없고, 장기적으로 버리식 '하락 후 반등' 종목으로 판단.
다듬은 글
Expedia may be Michael burry's favorite stock it's the biggest investment in his portfolio that shows on his 13f but why is he buying the company is Expedia a potential buy now Expedia stock ticker expe then we're giving a rating to the business this analysis is intense but it's going to be let's understand expedia's stock performance right now Expedia trades for 110 dollars and 22 cents per share year-to-date they're beating the market Expedia is up 26 while the S P 500 is up just under 20 in the last 10 years it's a different story Expedia has been trailing the market even though they're compounding at eight percent annually no surprise as a travel business they had a huge low in Spring of 2020 they rebounded sharply by the spring of 2022 yet since then they're down again going back before the global financial crisis Expedia in the last 18 years is compounding at five percent annually they're underperforming the market over this time but what does bury potentially see in the business Expedia trades 14 below their 52-week High the company's up 28 dollars from their 52-week low there's some short interest with four percent of their share sold short expedia's a fair size company they have a nearly 16 at does Michael burry see in the business and is it worth it for you to dig into Expedia Expedia is the world's second largest online travel agency by bookings offering services for lodging which are 76 percent of total sales air tickets which make up three percent rental cars cruises in destination and other which are 14 of sales and advertising Revenue which makes up seven percent of sales Expedia operates a number of branded travel booking sites including expedia.com hotels.com Travelocity orbits wotif Air Asia and verbo it is also expanded into travel media with the acquisition of Trivago transaction fees for online bookings account for the bulk of sales and profits now let's look at their numbers starting with metric number one we want expedia's s a seven percent return over the long run over the course of decades a Stock's likely to return what its underlying business returns these returns are captured by return on Capital Expedia earns slightly above average returns coming into 2020 that's when the business really got hit with global lockdowns due to pandemic as a travel company Expedia suffered since then as things have reopened they've rebounded and actually today they're in a better position than where they were prior to the pandemic Expedia earned 11 and a half percent Returns on Capital in their last fiscal year in their last 12 months they earn around 13 Returns on Capital however when these are averaged out because we're factoring in 2020 here Expedia earns around 3.7 percent Returns on Capital in an average year over this time that's coming in below a typical business this means this is an x on Metric number one although that may not paint the full picture for the business metric number two we're looking for growth to support their Returns on Capital we want to see five-year Revenue net income and free cash flow growth this metrics All or Nothing we want all three to be up for this to be a check here we really see the hit the company took in 2020 their revenues dropped by more than 50 percent their net incomes were negative and so were their free cash flows amazingly even despite that big hit the company's revenues are up nine percent when we include today's numbers their earnings have more than doubled from 2018 and that's the same with their free cash flows this is actually a check on Metric number two great to see that the earnings and free cash flows are up faster than their revenues this means expedia's profit margins have grown the company may be experiencing some operating leverage as they're getting more out of their fixed assets metric number three we're looking for earnings per share growth in the last five years this looks at Expedia you from the view of an individual shareholder we learned in our last metric their net incomes or their earnings have more than doubled over this time that's when we include their numbers up until today which aren't shown here on their chart as we can see the company took a big hit in 2020 since then their earnings have more than doubled however even at the same time expedia's diluted shareholders by about five percent ideally that's not what we want to see although it potentially makes sense giving the company's circumstances still their earnings per share are up over this tim're looking for free cash flow per share growth this is almost the same story their free cash flows have more than doubled this is outpacing their five percent shareholder dilution meaning they've grown their free cash flows per share another check here on Metric number four means so far through four metrics we have three checks and Only One X for Expedia how will the company perform in the rest of our analysis in recessions it's businesses with a lot of debt that can have the biggest losses or even go bankrupt metric number five we want to Expedia a and clearly this time frame includes a very rough period for Expedia the company added on a lot of debt in 2020 as their business consumed nearly 4.6 billion dollars in cash since then as the company's free cash flow positive they've been aggressively paying down their debt they ended last year with 1.9 billion dollars in debt today they actually have a 374 Million Dollar Cash cushion this is quite the turnaround from the business from 2020 at the same time even including the cash that they consumed in 2020 in the last five fiscal years expedia's generated 3.9 billion dollars of free cash flow not only do they have a cash cushion on their balance sheet their cash flow generative in their last 12 months alone they produced 2.3 billion dollars of free cash flow this is a huge check on Metric number five for Expedia it seems like the company is in a strong financial position the company looks even better than where they were at prior to 2020 now let's get into our valuation expedia' it's the first of two different ways we're estimating a fair value for Expedia right now Expedia has a 16.8 billion dollar Enterprise Value this t looks at Expedia similar to it being a private company in the last five years we learned the generated 3.9 billion dollars of free cash flow again that's even including their company's terrible 2020.
this means they generate around 785 million dollars of free cash flow in an average year when that's divided by their Enterprise Value it gives us around a 4.7 on a current basis Expedia produced 2.3 16.8 billion dollar Enterprise Value we get a big 13.7 percent 's coming in well above the risk premium we're looking for however we are looking at this on an average for Expedia please keep in mind that this five-year average may be unfairly penalizing the business as they've rebounded very well from where they were at in 2020.
in recent years they'd be very easily clearing this Benchmark however because we're looking for the sustained track record here this is an Exxon metric number six don't just throw the business talk about Expedia this expedia's like any model in any discipline its outputs are sensitive to its inputs because of the big Global hit to the business expedia's had a low degree of predictability in their past especially within the last handful of years here we're taking an average of their last few ye grow will be accurate or not for Expedia assuming they grow these free cash flows at seven percent annually for the next decade then in the following decade assuming that these grow at three and a half percent annually We'll add in their tangible Book value to give an estimate of their net worth if today's valuation multiples expedia's fair value per share is around 128 that's 18 above their current stock price looking like there could potentially be some margin of safety in the business keep in mind talk about our rating for Expedia but we need to address something first we've covered the numbers but the businesses qualitative factors may be even more important why don't we figure out what they are number one Expedia has a dominant Network effect and recent investment and Acquisitions stand to add to the company's platform Advantage number two Expedia removes 700 to 750 million dollars in annualized fixed costs in the Years following the pandemic furthermore Expedia has removed 200 million dollars in variable costs some of these savings are already being reinvested back into its platform number three Expedia May stand to benefit from remote work flexibility which could increase long-term demand for travel but we'd be remiss if we didn't cover the negatives of their business as well looking at the factors supporting a short thesis number one Google continues to siphon free organic traffic in favor of its own platform causing incremental marketing costs for Expedia number two the unknown extent and duration of inflation May stand to severely affect demand for travel content offered on expedia's platforms number three competition from existing peers which include booking TripAdvisor Google Costco Alibaba and Airbnb and new entrants including meta could meaningfully affect expedia's growth Outlook there you have it for a balanced perspective of some of expedia's qualitative factors now let's talk about our rating we learned in analyzing Expedia Group stock ticker expe that Michael burry may be interested in this business due to how it's rebounding from where they were at in the pandemic the company has a very high ey've generated free cash flow in all of these years besides 2020 they're even sitting on a cash cushion today at the same time the business has cut a lot of their fixed costs and they've reduced expenses across the board meaning they have higher margins and they're getting better operating leverage on the revenues they do bring in expedia's Returns on Capital are also improving they're even better than where they were at prior to 2020.
while there's little doubt 2020 was a major hit to the business Expedia seems to have taken some of this in stride and used it as an opportunity to restructure their costs as noted they do operate in a very competitive space and there is increasing competition for Expedia especially with how they have to spend to keep up their marketing that's something you'd want to note and dig into again this is not Financial advice expedia's free cash flow to Enterprise Value yield may look attractive compared to the 10-year treasury when we performed our discounted cash flow analysis based on those assumptions if you want a 15 rate of return from today's valuation multiples if they' expedia's fair value per share looks like it's around 128 dollars again that's 18 above their current stock price when we combine all the factors of our analysis Expedia seems to hit on the classic Michael burry investing philosophy which is looking at Down and Out companies that are on their way to rebounding and holding them through their upswing Expedia looks like an excellent candidate for further research thanks for learning about Expedia with me if you enjoyed it subscribe to the channel for more and check out this next video
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