저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
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결론: 인도 시장은 장기 강세가 예상되며 특히 소프트웨어·헬스케어·전자제조(하드웨어) 분야에 기회가 있다고 봄. 인도 시장 전망: 인도는 세계에서 가장 빠르게 성장하는 국가 중 하나이며, 중간중간 조정은 있겠지만 일시적일 것이고 인도 증시는 장기 상승장(Bull Run) 중이라고 주장. 기업 실적과 성장률: 최근 분기 실적은 대체로 예상치에 부합하거나 상회했고, 4분기 GDP도 예상보다 좋았음. 연 7% 성장을 가정하면 우량 기업의 주당순이익(EPS)은 GDP 성장률의 약 두 배인 14% 수준 성장 가능. 통화·금리 관점: 미국의 통화량(머니서플라이)이 급감했으며 이는 인플레이션 하락을 의미한다고 주장. 중앙은행은 지나치게 신중한 것으로 평가. 미국 예산안 통과로 달러 신용등급 우려도 해소됐다고 언급. 미국 시장: 미국 증시도 인도와 마찬가지로 좋은 성과를 낼 것으로 전망. 투자 전략: 인도 신흥시장 중 가장 매력적이라고 평가하며 Mobius Capital은 인도 노출도를 지속 확대 중. 리서치 팀은 소프트웨어 산업을 우선 검토, 향후 기술 하드웨어 및 전자제조(EMS)가 크게 성장할 것으로 봄. 헬스케어도 우수, 기술을 도입하는 인프라·제조 기업에도 관심. 전자제조 분야: 중국·대만·한국이 현재 선두지만 인도가 인구와 기회를 바탕으로 이들 국가를 대체할 것으로 예상. 아이폰 등 기업 생산 유치로 부품 업체들도 인도 진출이 예상됨. 인플레이션·디플레이션: 소비자물가지수(CPI)는 인플레이션을 잘못 측정하며 중앙은행이 잘못된 내러티브에 기반한다고 주장. 기술 발전으로 디플레이션 시대에 진입 중이며, 생산성이 높으면 성장과 디플레이션이 공존 가능하다고 봄. 보유 종목(언급): 기술·소프트웨어, 파이프·튜브 제조 기업, 의료 검사 기업에 투자 중.
다듬은 글
here's the big Market Guru on his call on India on the sidelines of the IEC 2023 Mark Mobius believes that there are several opportunities in India prefer software and Healthcare stocks well I think the markets are going to do very well particularly here in India as you know India is one of the fastest growing uh countries in the world and I think the Indian market is going to continue to do well of course there'll be declines from time to time but these will be very temporary the OPP unities are so great here and as far as the US Market's concerned I believe that market will do as well because now the the whole business of the budget has been passed and now there's no problem of the dollar being uh rated as a result of the uh deficit problem so Mark you know uh just a while back Indian markets along with global markets were rallying in anticipation that probably the data is showing that inflation has peaked out and that worry is over yes then came fed and our own Central Bank also saying that it is just a pause not a pivot and Market got a bit nervous what is the reality in your view the reality is that money supply has gone down precipitously it's an amazing event and that means that inflation will be coming down it's already happening so I believe the central banks are being maybe too cautious at this stage okay so they don't want to air uh on that side so probably they're actually being a little extra cautious is what you're say the other thing about India what stood out this quarterly season was the quality of earnings by and large the earnings were either in line or better than estimate Street was scared and yes yesterday evening even the fourth quarter GDP data was a pleasant surprise what are these things indicating about the future of stock markets uh for the next few quarters in your view what what it means is that because of the 7% growth that we're looking at for this country companies are going to do very well because usually uh the earnings of good companies with good return on Capital will be double that of the GDP growth so we're looking at 14% earnings per share growth for many many companies so I believe the Outlook is excellent mhm so out of all the Emerging Markets which you study uh where does India stack right now in its uh attractiveness highest India is the highest India is the most attractive Emerging Market in attractive yes exactly okay uh does it also mean that at Mobius Capital you are hiking your exposure to India we are we're constantly hiking our exposure here and looking at new opportunities here definitely so what's your research team telling you what kind of opportunity are you studying and analyzing what we like now is the software industry to begin with I believe going forward the hardware in other words technology Hardware is going to be very big in India no listed companies yet but we're looking at that sector Health Care as you know is going to be very very good here already is doing very well and look any company that's adopting technology in India is going to do well even in the area of infrastructure and in terms of uh manufacturing we're going to be looking at those companies as well you spoke about Hardware that's a very differentiating point we speak to fund managers across the world nobody has touched that point so I'd like to scratch it a little more the closest to Hardware technology Hardware which comes to are electronic manufacturing companies exct there are handful of them half a dozen and this sector appears to be opening up so do you like electronic Manufacturing uh which is very technology backed here India I believe India is going to become a leader in that area of course right now it's China and Taiwan are the leaders and Korea but I believe India is going to take the place of many of these countries because population is 1 billion people to begin with many opportunities and in addition to that you're seeing the uh the the import now of companies coming in to manufacture uh iPhones for example are being manufactured now when you have a company like that coming in all the subsidiary companies the component manufacturers have to come to India so there's going to be a big future in that area so Indian markets after a 19mon kind of a Hiatus have come back to same levels and it appears that they are climbing higher are we at the start of a new bull run as far as Indian markets go I believe we're on a long-term bull run here there will be always Corrections along the way but generally speaking we are on a long-term Bull Run for India give us a sneak peek into your new book as well you why did you choose to write about inflation myth and the wonderful world of deflation are we heading into that direction now well what I say in the book is first of all the way inflation is measured with the Consumer Price Index is very bad it's very false lots of Errors along the way so central banks are basing their information on a false narrative secondly because of Technology we're entering a period perod of deflation which of course many economists hate deflation because they say it means you're not going to have growth but you can have deflation and growth at the same time because if the company or country is productive they're going to be producing more and more goods and services at lower and lower prices okay just last two questions what are your top three four biggest Holdings in Indian market right now uh right now we are involved in technology and software uh and we're involved in a company doing the uh pipes and tubings and then we're also in medical testing
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