저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 미국 경제는 거품 위에 있으며 금리 정상화와 인플레이션 가속으로 큰 붕괴가 올 것이라는 비관론. 거품과 정책 비판: 클린턴·부시·오바마 시기 번영은 자산 거품에 기댄 가짜 번영이며, 연준의 저금리 정책이 더 큰 거품을 만들었다고 주장. 인플레이션과 금리: CPI 전년비 2.5%는 실제보다 낮게 발표된 수치이며 인플레이션이 가속 중이고, 연준은 뒤처져 있다고 봄. 부채가 너무 커서 금리 인상이 어렵고, 정상 금리(5~7%)가 필요하다고 주장. 실질임금과 고용: 임금은 정체되어 실질임금이 하락하고 이후 실업률 급등 가능성. 정책 전망: 트럼프의 재정지출·감세는 적자를 키워 붕괴를 가속한다고 봄. 정부 축소와 자산가격(주식·부동산·채권) 하락을 통한 조정 필요. 부채와 외국인 자금: 미국 부채 약 20조 달러, 미래 부채 약 200조 달러. 중국·일본·러시아·사우디 등 대규모 채권 보유국이 보유 축소 중이며 연준이 채권 매입(QE)에 나설 것이라 예상. 유로·달러: 유럽중앙은행이 예상보다 빨리 양적완화를 중단해 유로가 달러 대비 강세로 갈 것으로 봄. 미국은 물가 상승에도 금리 인상을 중단하고 완화로 돌아설 것이라 주장. 독일 금 반환: 독일이 연준에 보관한 금 약 300톤을 조기 회수한 것은 미국의 재정 위기와 금 보관 신뢰 문제를 반영한다고 해석. 미국 금 보유 실사 신뢰성에도 의문 제기. 주식 vs 금: 다우지수는 금 대비 가치가 크게 하락할 것이며 1930·1970년대 수준의 하락(금 1온스 수준)까지 가능하다고 봄. 생활비 전망: 식료품·에너지·보험·세금 등 생활비가 크게 상승해 평균 미국인의 생활수준이 크게 떨어질 것이라 주장. 수입품 가격도 관세와 달러 약세로 상승할 것으로 봄. 기축통화와 금: 달러가 기축통화 지위를 잃을 가능성은 낮다고 보지만 금 본위 체제가 바람직하다고 주장. 금 기반 결제 플랫폼과 금 보유를 홍보. 출연자 홍보성 발언: 자사 투자 상품 및 금 구매 플랫폼 이용을 권유하는 내용 포함.
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leaving office he said he was handing Trump this strong incredible economy when you look at the economy with retail GDP employment has he really actually handed him a strong economy no no he has handed him a bubble or maybe a hand grenade that's about to about to go off here I mean this is the biggest bubble I think anybody has ever handed any president did you know I think that George Bush had the misfortune of inheriting the bubble that we had under Clinton and of course the the manufacturer that bubble was more Alan Greenspan than Clinton himself but the prosperity that we enjoyed under Clinton was phony and the bubble burst shortly after Bush came to town and then what happened was the Federal Reserve inflated a larger bubble in the real estate market to numb the pain from the bursting of the dot-com bubble and that bubble burst while Trump was while Bush was still in office and so it looked as if Obama had inherited a mess and made it better but what he did is he inherited a mess and now made a bigger mess right he we have the biggest bubble ever the reckless monetary policy that we pursued under Bernanke and under Yellen is far worse than anything done under under a Greenspan and so the prosperity as bad as it was under Obama was completely phony it was all artificial based on inflated asset prices but it really didn't trickle down to the average guy I mean the average American suffered under the Obama presidency that's why Trump is the current president because this was just a financial recovery rather than a recovery in the real economy but this bubble is about to burst you have inflation now really starting to accelerate today we got the CPI year-over-year we have a two and a half percent increase and that's what the government will admit if they're admitting two and a half believe me it's a lot higher than that but inflation is rising and the Fed is way behind the curve and we have so much debt now that they can't raise interest rates to fight inflation so it's going to keep on getting higher wages are going nowhere so real wages are going to be falling and eventually you're start to see a big uptick in unemployment as this whole Mirage vanishes and people see this so-called recovery for what it is so Trump wants to try to fix all of this he wants to spend more money he wants to borrow to create jobs to help the infrastructure will this actually help the economy by borrowing more money no we can't fix it by going deeper into debt we can't fix it with more government spending what we need to do is cut government spending dramatically and a lot of the debt needs to be defaulted on because it's impossible to repay it and you know because we need higher interest rates that is a must we're never gonna have a recovery unless we have higher rates and I'm not talking about the Fed raising rates from a half a percent to three-quarters an percent we need normal interest rates we need five six seven percent we need a interest rate that reflects the true amount of savings in debt in this economy we need interest rates high enough to encourage people to save money in the bank so that small business can actually get capital that it needs to expand and grow and so what Trump is talking about is trying to preserve the bubble we need to let the bubble pop I mean he's also talking about bringing jobs back here and manufacturing at this time when he's he's out there talking to many different corporations and they're promising to bring all these jobs back to the US I mean is it really possible to bring all these jobs back when they've been you know offshoring them all this time no I mean not now back to what there's no factories for them to work in the whole supply chain has been dismantled and we don't even have workers who are qualified to do the work so in the long run can we resurrect our manufacturing industry and and bring jobs back yeah we can but it's going to take a long time it's not like can happen during the Trump presidency I mean maybe he can lay the foundation to enable that to happen over a longer period of time but this is going to be a process but we can't even begin to process until we start dismantling much of government we need to shrink government so that we can have a lower tax environment and we need to rebuild our savings so we can make the cap investments that are necessary to bring these jobs back so we need higher interest rates we need to allow asset prices to come down stock prices have to go down real estate price has to go down bond prices have to go down we have to go through a cleansing recession without the government interfering in the markets attempt to rebalance this economy so that it can have healthy real economic growth not just another bubble so you talk a lot about the debt I mean that the United States we're in about 20 trillion that's continually moving up we have about 200 trillion of unfunded liabilities and you know everyone keeps talking about you know can we sustain this debt I mean how much longer can we go sustaining this debt as it continually moves up I mean can we go any further than this well you know the reason that the Fed or one of the reasons that interest rates have been so low is because we could not sustain the debt were it not for these low interest rates the debt is so large that servicing it would be impossible if the Fed were to normalize rates which is why that hasn't happened and that's why you know even though inflation is well above their so-called 2% target the Fed is not raising rates or if they do it's going to be by a tiny amount because they recognize this but at some point even a tiny interest rate is going to be too large for our economy to bear you know and meanwhile other costs are going to be going up as a result of all the money that's already been printed energy costs are going to go back up food costs are going back up insurance taxes the cost of living is already rising even without the cost of debt service rising but as interest rates rise that is going to crush this economy because of the added cost of service in the debt and and then I also think if we get any kind of fiscal stimulus under the trump administration if we do get a tax cut if we do get additional government spending on infrastructure or the military or the border which sends our deficits much higher that's going to accelerate the collapse because I don't think the appetite is there you know among our foreign creditors to finance all this to loan us the money in fact if anything if you look at countries like China like Japan like Russia like Saudi Arabia these have been our biggest lenders they want their money back they're shrinking they're letting their treasury portfolios decline so the Fed is gonna have to step up it unless unless they want interest rates to skyrocket they're gonna have to print a lot of money and buy a lot of bonds and you know that's the beginning of the end now in Europe we see there's many countries out there like the UK France Italy and others who are looking to most likely leave the EU if these countries start to leave the EU well this what type of effect will have on the US on the dollar I mean will this be a ripple effect that will hit the United States well I don't know I mean you know and at some point there may be a number of states that want to leave the United States I mean you know just about any state would be better off if we're independent right because it would no longer be obligated for its share of the national debt but you know and it would no longer be obligated to pay the federal income tax or any of these taxes but you know a lot of the European nations think that they'd be better off without the European Union you know what pretty soon Germany might be among them because the Germans are gonna be complaining inflation in Germany is now the highest and four or five years and going higher and the Germans don't like this they don't like this kind of monetary policy so I don't know how things are going to play out in the short run but I do think the euro is headed higher against the dollar because I do think that the European Central Bank is going to have to abandon its quantitative easing program much sooner than the markets expect and I also think that the u.s.
is going to go back to an easing when the markets don't expect that at all I think the Fed is going to be aborting its rate hiking campaign even in the face of rising inflation and even if it doesn't abort it even if it keeps raising rates it's not going to raise them enough to cause real interest rates to actually rise I think real interest rates are going to fall in fact if you look at real interest rates today they are lower right now than they were before the first rate hike so the Fed has not actually moved up rates because they've risen they bumped them up so slowly that they've actually moved further in a negative territory on a real basis now I want to talk about the Fed in a minute but I mentioned Germany and that just I just thought of the Bundesbank where they're repatriating the gold about 300 tons from the Fed and they just completed that and they repatriated the gold faster than expected why do you think they wanted their gold back and why did they accelerate the process well I think they wanted it within their own border just so they have it I mean the United States has a checkered history when it comes to gold right I mean we made it illegal for our own citizens to own gold we also defaulted on our obligations to pay gold because up until 1971 if you were in Germany and you had $35 the Fed owed you an ounce of gold that gold was on deposit in Fort Knox but if you brought those $35 to the Federal Reserve right they had to give you an ounce of gold that was our commitment and then we defaulted on that promise and we paid no gold for our note so I think that Germany appreciates the financial predicament the United States is in and doesn't want to leave its gold here because what if things get so bad in the United States that we just cease that bold as a national emergency we just say you know we need it you know and and what is what does Germany gonna do about I mean they're not gonna they're not gonna declare war on us so they would just be you know Sol so I think to not have that problem they just decided you know what this is our gold and this is you know we need this gold and we're not gonna take any chances so let's bring it back to Germany where we can protect it and know that we own it now when the Germans did receive the gold there was some talk about how the labeling on the gold was different suggesting that maybe the Fed really didn't actually have the gold and they were getting it from other areas well again it's the US government that has the gold I don't know that I don't know that the Fed has gold as a component of its balance sheet I think pretty much the only thing that Fed has is Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities but the United States government supposedly owns a substantial gold reserve and the question is do we actually have all that gold that we claim to have and you know I don't know right I mean I don't know if you could trust the numbers I'm not sure the last time there was an independent audit of our gold holdings if there's ever been one you wrote an article about the stock market and the US dollar and you wrote that one is going to crash can you just explain what you mean by well I mean the stock market is extremely overvalued and it will crash eventually unless the dollar crashes instead right because the only way that the Federal Reserve can prevent a substantial decline in the stock market is to you know print a lot of money right just make sure that the dollar declines instead of the stock market but that means that the real value of US stocks is going to come crashing down one way or another either it's because the Fed does the right thing and aggressively raises interest rates and allows the stock market to crash or because the Fed does the wrong thing and doesn't raise rates aggressively or doesn't raise them at all or cuts rates and launches qe4 and so instead of the stock market crashing the dollar crashes but that means that the real value of US stocks goes down and a good way to measure the stock market is in the price of gold and you know let's say right now the Dow is worth you know 16 ounces of gold something like that let me let me see the Dow is 20,000 and gold is about 1200 so yeah about 16 ounces well let's say the stock market gets cut in half then it's worth eight ounces of gold or you know the stock market stay the same and the price of gold could double and now it's worth eight ounces of gold right so you know in terms of gold this markets going way down and believe me I think it's going a lot lower than eight I mean I think we're gonna see a unprecedented decline in the the gold price of the Dow I mean maybe not unprecedented but maybe as big as that decline in the 1930s or the 1970s when the Dow went down to about one ounce of gold having been as high as 20 ounce of gold at its peak then having fallen to one ounce which is a you know huge decline I remember watching and listening to you back in 2006-7 and you talked about the economy coming down and here we are in 2017 and when this economy finally collapses what is the everyday person going to experience because we saw what happened in 2008 what's gonna happen with jobs and the the credit industry and food what do you see coming well I think you're gonna see a substantial increase in the cost of living I mean that's coming so Americans are really going to feel this in a way that they have it in the past it's not just know the value of their house going down it's going to be the cost of heating the house going up the of the electric bill of making repairs of paying your your homeowners insurance I mean everything is going to get more expensive and you know this this is going to be a big problem for average Americans for those who have jobs for those who are retired and trying to live off some kind of a fixed income this is going to be a very disruptive economic downturn it is going to deliver a substantial decline in its the standard of living of the vast majority of Americans in a way that we haven't experienced before so when you say the increase of cost of living I mean you're talking about a couple dollars or you are you talking about prices of like bread going up to thirty forty fifty dollars but I could see that even under a better case scenario I can see over a period of a few short years the cost of living rising fifty to a hundred percent as far as you know your basic necessities you know food energy stuff like that you know and you know the price of goods that you know might be on the shelves in Walmart right the things that we import you know whether it's because we impose tariffs and help you know help you know impose this hardship on ourselves or just because the dollar falls significantly so that the import prices go up you know but import prices if they rise by 50% or a hundred percent over a period of a few years that is an abstention increase in the cost of those products so what will the Fed do at this point when things start to deteriorate in the economy what actions do they have well I think at first they'll just throw gasoline on the fire because that's all they know right they will respond the weakening economy by printing more money but that's just gonna make things worse but at some point hopefully they'll get religion it probably won't be Janet Yellen let's see who who trump appoints to replace her but if we get the right kind of guy you know maybe we'll do the right thing but you know doing the right thing is going to be very problematic very painful very difficult politically you know it never I mean swallowing bitter tasting medicine is not going to be popular you know with the people who are asked to swallow you know even if they're promised that eventually it's going to work you know nobody knows that for sure all they know is you know they don't want this bad taste in their mouth right now based on the promise that maybe in the long run it'll be better you know there are many individuals out there where they're saying that the dollar will no longer be the world reserve currency anymore do you see a currency that will replace the dollar some people are saying the SDR no I don't see another currency I think that the world was foolish to have made the dollar the reserve in the first place I mean gold should be the reserve you don't want to make another irredeemable fiat currency the reserved for another irredeemable fiat currency it's like it's like having no reserve at all the we need to be on a have a real monetary system which means we need actual money not just these fake money substitutes so I don't think that there is another currency that will replace the dollar nor do I think there should be a currency to replace the dollar I think reserves should be gold and money should paper currency should be backed by gold and that's it and no one country should have some kind of special privilege to be able to write checks that nobody ever cashes I mean we've been able to run these massive trade deficits year after year after year because we've had the reserve currency and we shouldn't have been able to do that and yes it was beneficial in the short run because we got to live beyond our means but it evolved it allowed our economy to evolve in a way that is very unhealthy in the long run I mean we are going to suffer dramatically for all the past benefits that we had as a result of being the issue of the reserve currency when we can no longer do that when we can no longer pay for our imports with with printing press when we need to export to pay for our imports I mean this is gonna be a massive collapse Peter thank you very much for being on the x22 report spotlight once again how can people see your work well you know I do my own podcast they can listen to them on ship radio calm is the website they can also hear them on my youtube channel just look for Peter Schiff and just I put them up on YouTube as well people should go to my company website for your Pacific Capital Europe a calm also ship gold calm I put up a lot of commentary there people should also be investing with me if you want to take advantage of these trends if you want to profit from what's going to happen you know when you see things in advance I mean if you see the situation where the crowd has got it wrong whether we you know like the dot-com bubble or be profited from the the subprime market when that first in the housing market when you see a trade where everybody is wrong the consensus is wrong there's a lot of money to be made when you bet against that trade and I think the profits are gonna be huge for the people who actually understand what's gonna happen and have their money in the right countries and the right assets and so people can talk to my representatives that you're a Pacific Capital and then when everybody should do who's listening to this everybody should own some gold and the easiest way to do that go to a website bold money calm a gold money calm buy yourself some gold using that website basically you know you pay a half a percent over spot best deal you're gonna find you can take physical delivery whenever you want but in the mean time they'll give you a free debit card you can spend your goal the same way you would spend your dollars that we're sitting in a in a savings account and more and more merchants are going to be signing up over time onto this platform it's a it's an e-commerce platform using gold it's like a PayPal with gold and I think a lot of merchants as inflation really heats up not only here but all around the world people are gonna want to get paid in gold they're gonna want to invoice their customers they're gonna want to get gold and so that's what's only gonna happen here this is going to be commerce and people will be able to literally opt-out of the banking system using gold money put themselves on a gold standard you can earn in gold you
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