저자: JimRogers · 외국인
요약 보기
집 로저스는 거의 모든 주요국 증시가 사상 최고치라 역사적으로 위험 신호이며 자신도 대부분 매도했다고 말한다. AI는 전기처럼 변화를 주지만 과거 기술 붐 주식 거품은 결국 나빠졌다고 경고한다. 미국 부채가 역사상 최대이고 달러 기축통화 지위는 언젠가 바뀐다고 본다. 금·은은 보유하고 있으며 조정 시 더 매수하라고 권하지만, 단기 매매 타이밍은 잘 못한다고 밝힌다. 원자재 중 농업이 주목할 영역이라는 발언도 있다.
다듬은 글
So, how do I know? I'm not very good at market timing. I I will tell you though that I have sold nearly everything in the world because I know that nearly all stock markets are making all-time highs. Historically, when that has happened, it's a time to worry. So, I worry. I sold. I sold too soon, obviously, but I'm watching and worried.
So, you are worried about the direction of the general markets going forward, right? Well, Usha, every nearly every market in the world is making all-time highs. I repeat, nearly every market stock market in the world is making all-time highs. That does not happen very often. And when it does happen, people should ask questions and maybe should be worried.
So, I'm worried. Yeah. I I am obviously early. Uh I am worried. Wow, look at that. Jim Rogers is saying he has sold nearly everything. Think about it. One of the world's most legendary investor is pulling out of the market entirely. Why? Because almost every stock market is hitting an all-time high right now, and that's historically a terrifying sign.
This euphoria is getting crazy, guys. When everyone is celebrating, that's exactly when you should start worrying. Agreed on that. Uh everyone is talking about the AI today. Do you see today's enthusiasm as a genuine technological revolution with decades of upside, or is it becoming another liquidity-driven bubble?
Well, we've had markets throughout Well, for a long time, and we've often had some markets that become extremely excited, whether it's electricity or automobiles or computers or whatever, at the moment, everyone is excited about AI, and AI is changing the world, just as electricity exchange changed the world.
Um will it last forever? None of them ever had I mean, electricity had lasted forever, but not as a stock market boom. So, I have I've we've all seen this before. Do not ask me about market timing because I'm not very good at it, but I know this has happened before. I know it's been very exciting when it happens, but I know it's always ended and ended badly.
It did, unfortunately. Uh Jim, you've always been a contrarian investor. Where do you think the biggest disconnect between the market prices and economic reality exists today? Well, I guess I would say in stock markets around the world. I repeat, many stock markets in the world are making all-time highs.
That's a disconnect. Rarely in human history has every market in the world made an all-time high. And when it does happen, it's a time to ask questions. Is that a disconnect? I don't know. You can ask me in 2 or 3 years. Okay, this is a massive reality check on the AI hype. He's just compared AI to invention of electricity.
Yes, AI is changing the world, but Jim makes a clearer point. The electricity boom lasted forever, but the stock market bubble around it crashed badly. So, if you think AI stock will only go up forever, you might want to think twice. Yeah, but on the other hand, where do you see the disconnect, let's say, on the underpriced commodities at at the moment.
Well, most commodities are doing well. I guess agriculture is probably a place that people could look. Um agriculture is not booming. I mean, I don't think you know many people that are rushing off to be a farmer right now. Um people who are in universities are all begging to be farmers. They're all begging to be stockbrokers.
So, I guess that those parts of the world are places where one could look. Wait. Did he just say agriculture? That is a pure contrarian move right there. He's totally right. Every university student today wants to be a tech bro or a stockbroker. Absolutely no one is rushing to become a farmer. But, guess what?
Well, the crowd is chasing overpriced stocks. The real money might be hidden in dirt and farming. Fascinating perspective. Yeah. Uh let's touch a bit on inflation and the monetary system. We've we've gone from a decade of near zero interest rates to persistent inflation and much higher borrowing cost.
Is this a temporary adjustment or has the investment landscape fundamentally changed for the next decade? Fundamental change for the next decade? I doubt it. There's been very few things in world history or in investing history that have been a fundamental change for a decade. Yes, some things have been.
Electricity, automobiles, things like that came along. But, even those things did not last forever. I mean, the electricity boomed. But, it was not something that made fortunes for people for years. Unless they happen to find a a good company and bought it and held it for a long time. Likewise with automobiles.
I mean, Ford Motor Company is still alive. But, it wasn't a great stock forever. So, you have to get your timing right. Yes. Jim, do you think we will return to pre-COVID pre-pandemic levels with inflation? Can we see those numbers again soon or ever? Of course, we can. I know. And I've read enough market history to know that most of these things have happened before, and I know that they will happen again.
So, if you say ever, yes, I can tell you yes. The answer is yes. Okay. Okay. Will it Will it happen today? Probably not. But, it will happen ever. Yeah. I may be over Yeah. Your point You're definitely right here. And high borrowing costs are really hitting hard. Jim is basically telling us that if we think inflation is magically going back to the old comfortable pre-pandemic days anytime soon, we're dreaming.
Economic cycles take years to fix themselves, and we need to buckle up for a long bumpy ride. Uh for decades, the global economy has revolved around the dollar-centric monetary system. Are we witnessing the beginning of the new monetary order, or is the talk of dedollarization still premature? Well, I own US dollars.
Um I partly because I'm an American, but I would own US dollars anyway. The US dollar is the world's main currency. Uh that is going to change. Uh, I don't know what's coming next and I don't know when. But, I know that throughout history we've had different currencies, different countries, different whatever, and I know that that will change again.
The United States is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world. No nation in world history has ever been so much in debt, and the debt's getting bigger. I know that will change. I don't particularly like it since I'm an American, but I know it's happening and I know it will happen. Yeah, uh, the governments continue accumulate record levels of debt.
Yet, market seems remarkably relaxed. What do investors understand that you don't or is the market simply ignoring the risk? What do you think? Uh, my answer to you would be that the market is probably ignoring the risk, but who knows? I would just will repeat, this sort of thing has happened several times in history in many countries.
It's not the first time. It's happened before. We're all human beings. Human beings love easy answers. Hu- human beings want everything to be easy and right. Human beings all will make many mistakes. Hold on. Read that that again. The United States is the largest debtor nation in the entire history of the world.
No country has ever carried this much debt and it's growing every single second. Even though Jim Rickards holds US dollars, he is flat-out admitting that a massive global monetary shift is inevitable. The dollar king might fall sooner than we think. I'm Scott Bessent is a really intelligent person. He now works for the government.
So, you have to remember that when smart people work for the government, they have different different views. They have to have different views. Um as I say, Scott is a smart person, but that does not mean that everything is all right in Washington. I repeat, the US is a largest debtor nation in world history, and the debt's getting worse.
Whenever this has happened in the past, it's led to problems. I know it will lead to problems again. I don't know when. Scott would tell you, "Don't worry. Don't worry." I repeat, Scott's a smart guy, but I worry. Okay. Uh let's touch on the central banks. The topic is always uh the central banks buying gold, but let's let's let's touch on the other side of the of the story.
If a major holder, such as Russia or any other country facing severe uh fiscal pressure, were forced to liquidate a significant portion of its gold reserves, would that simply create a buying opportunity or could it fundamentally alter gold's long-term outlook? Well, if what you just described happens, it's going to lead to dislocations in the market.
If major countries start liquidating their holdings, oh, it causes problems. It causes dislocations. Now, if you're clever and knowledgeable, you will find an opportunity. But that doesn't happen overnight. That takes a time. Takes a long time, usually. But yes, if you have everybody changing and say we must liquidate.
That leads to opportunities. Just be careful. Cuz the first month is not going to be fun. Yeah. Gold is in a correction territory. It has corrected. Do you see more pain ahead or do you see a strong upside here from here? Well, I own gold. I own silver. I have for many years. I suggested everyone should own some gold.
Everyone should own some silver. Because throughout history gold and silver have been valuable and been protection. I mean Jesus Christ was sold for 30 pieces of silver. And that was hundreds of year 100 more than hundreds of years ago. Silver and gold have always been useful and practical and protective.
They will be again. Everybody should have go some gold in the closet. Everybody should have some silver under the bed. You need it. And when you need it, it's very late. It's too late to buy. You need to buy it when nobody cares. So as a gold holder, you basically don't care if the price goes down or up, right?
Well, for me I don't. I just own it. If it goes up, I don't sell it. If it goes down, I hope I'm smart enough to buy more. Fair enough. Uh let's touch on Now, I will just repeat to them. There are many people who are good traders, good market timers, and they can buy and sell gold and silver in the market and make fortunes.
I am not one of those people. I don't even try. Understood. Understood. Uh let's touch on silver. You You mentioned silver for years some investors have argued that silver prices have been artificially suppressed Uh through the paper futures market. Do you think there are there's any merit to those claims?
No. I do know that there have been times when it appears that governments are artificially trying to suppress gold or silver and they have been. I mean governments some governments at times have tried to make the price of gold and silver go down. But I know that history shows that in the end markets are smarter than governments.
There's no government in history that's been smarter than the markets. I mean governments don't like that but markets have always been smarter than any government you name. Okay, this is the ultimate wealth insurance is fit right here. He literally said, "Put some gold in your closet and silver under your bed." His advice is pure gold.
Don't wait to buy physical precious metals when a crash happens because by then it will be too late. Buy it now when nobody else cares. That is a legendary piece of advice.
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