저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
금 가격이 5,500달러 이상으로 급등하고 중앙은행 금 매입이 과거 10년 평균의 두 배(연 약 1,000톤)라는 점을 짚는다. 그러나 금 매입이 곧 미국채 매도는 아니며, 2026년 6월 외국 공적기관은 채권 91억 달러를 순매도했지만 장기증권은 373억 달러를 순매수해 달러 자산 이탈이라 보기 어렵다고 결론짓는다. 금 가격은 1월 최고점 대비 7월 약 27% 하락 후 등락했고, 달러 패권 붕괴는 아직 입증되지 않았다고 본다.
다듬은 글
Gold is trading above $5,500 per ounce. Central banks are buying about twice as much gold as they did in the previous decade. And 74% of reserve managers surveyed expect the dollar's share of global reserves to decline. This sounds like the beginning of the collapse of the dollar. But the latest data from the Ministry of Finance reveals something that bypasses the panic headlines.
Central banks can buy gold, reduce the number of bonds, and at the same time continue to invest billions in dollar assets. And when you see the real numbers, the “ gold up, dollar dead” narrative becomes much less convincing. First, the movement of gold is real. The World Gold Council reports that over the past 4 years, central banks have accumulated an average of about 1,000 tons annually.
This is twice the average for the previous decade. They seek protection from inflation, sanctions, geopolitical conflicts, and dependence on another country's financial system. Unlike Treasury bonds, gold carries no issuer risk. But here's the first nuance. Buying gold does not automatically mean selling Treasury bonds.
In the World Gold Council's 2026 report, half of the central banks that explained their funding sources announced purchases in their national currency. Only 38% said they would sell existing reserve assets, and these assets do not necessarily have to be Treasury. So the key question is not whether central banks are buying gold.
They definitely do that. The question is whether they are abandoning dollar assets for this. The latest available report from the Ministry of Finance covers June 2026. That month, foreign official institutions sold $9.8 billion in Treasury bonds and bills. They also reduced their holdings of Treasury bills.
This sounds alarming until you open the rest of the table. The same institutions purchased $37.3 billion in long-term US securities. In the broader dimension of portfolio flows in dollars, foreign institutions provided a net inflow of $48.4 billion. In other words, reserve managers were adjusting the ownership structure in the dollar system, not fleeing from it.
And there is another fact that the gold crash story ignores. The price of gold was extremely volatile. It reached a record high of $5,501.70 on January 29, then fell to $3,978.55 on July 1. July ended at $4,026.60, which at that time represented a drop of 8.2% for the year. This does not make gold weak.
This shows why one dramatic price chart cannot prove that the global financial system has reached the point of no return. Gold can rise due to fears of inflation, falling real incomes, geopolitical risks, central bank demand, or Fed policy. None of these factors alone prove that the dollar has lost its role as a reserve currency.
However , the strongest counterargument deserves serious consideration. Diversification from the dollar is happening gradually. 74% of reserve managers surveyed expect the dollar's share of global reserves to decline moderately or significantly over the next five years. If this trend continues, it could weaken the marginal demand for Treasury bonds.
Over time, this could lead to rising costs for government borrowing , mortgages, corporate debt, and ultimately household finances. But gradual diversification is not the same as sudden abandonment. To prove a real exit from the dollar, we need to see several signals at the same time. A prolonged official sale of Treasury bonds over several months, a rise in disclosed gold reserves, persistent dollar weakness, weaker bond auctions, and higher long-term yields that cannot be explained by inflation or Fed policy.
Such a combination would have serious consequences. One month of bond sales against the backdrop of a general inflow of dollar assets does not meet this criterion. So gold is giving a warning, but perhaps not the one most people think of. Central banks want more insurance against inflation, conflict, and financial sanctions.
They become less likely to depend on a single reserve asset. But recent data suggests that they are adding alternatives while continuing to use the dollar system, rather than abandoning it instantly. Keep an eye on Treasury data on international capital flows, central bank reserve reports , real yields, and the dollar index.
These indicators will tell us whether this is diversification or the beginning of something much bigger. So far, the gold rally is real. The conclusion about the collapse of the dollar remains unproven. This video is intended for educational and informational purposes and not as personalized financial advice.
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