저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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Peter Schiff은 이 영상에서 2023년 2월 현재의 고인플레이션 환경이 쉽게 끝나지 않을 것이며, 연준이 금리를 올리더라도 실제 긴축이 되지 않아 스태그플레이션이 올 것이라고 주장한다. 연준 정책 진단: 연준이 인플레이션과 싸운다고 말하지만 실제로는 여전히 부양적인 금리를 유지하며, 재정적자와 막대한 무역적자를 메우기 위해 결국 양적완화(QE)를 확대할 수밖에 없다고 본다. 대차대조표 축소도 실현되지 않을 것이라고 예상한다. 재정·무역 근거: 연간 재정적자는 약 3조 달러 수준이고, 지난해 사상 처음으로 상품무역적자가 1조 달러를 넘었으며 12월에는 1,000억 달러를 넘는 신기록을 세웠다. 유가는 배럴당 92~93달러이며 100달러 이상으로 갈 것으로 본다. 기술주 영향: 정책 전환은 기술주와 모멘텀주 거품을 꺼뜨릴 만큼은 되지만 인플레이션을 잡을 정도는 아니라고 평가한다. 기업 가격전가 메커니즘: 비용 상승분을 기업이 가격에 반영하는 과정에서 고객이 줄어 새 균형가격은 비용 상승폭보다 더 높아진다고 설명한다. 작년에 기업들이 가격 인상을 충분히 하지 못했고, 클로록스(Clorox)가 비용 상승을 전가하지 못해 실적 쇼크를 겪은 사례를 든다. 인플레이션 전망: 지난해 7% 수준이던 CPI가 2022년 이후에도 낮아지기보다 오히려 7%에서 10%까지 더 오를 수 있다고 말한다(영상 내 기간 표현은 2022년 기준으로 되어 있어 실제로는 2023년 전망으로 해석). 임금 상승이 물가 상승을 따라가지 못해 소비자들이 소비를 줄이고 더 싼 제품으로 이동하는 중이라고 본다. 투자 전략: 가격 결정력이 있는 필수재 기업(소비재, 유틸리티, 에너지 기업 등)에 포트폴리오를 기울이고, 배당을 지급할 수 있는 가격결정력 높은 기업을 보유하라고 권한다. 반면 재량적 소비와 고평가된 기술·모멘텀주는 조정 위험이 크다고 본다. 리스크/조건: 연준의 긴축이 실제로 충분히 이루어지지 않는다는 것이 핵심 전제이며, 이 전제가 틀리면 결론도 달라질 수 있다. 출연자 전망: 기술·모멘텀주 하락과 높은 인플레이션 지속, 스태그플레이션을 전제로 한 보수적 방어주 선호.
다듬은 글
people still don't understand is that this High inflation environment is here to stay because there's absolutely nothing to Fed is capable of doing about it in fact everything the FED does is going to throw gasoline on the inflation fire so fed monetary policy is going to exacerbate the inflation that we're dealing with I mean even though they're talking about fighting inflation they're not really going to fight it they're going to keep stoking the Flames just they're gonna you know be less aggressive what they're talking about doing is Raising interest rates but these are still highly stimulative rates of Interest it was in 2002 that the FED slashed rates to one percent to stimulate the economy after you know the NASDAQ bubble bursts they started you know the war on terror and all that stuff happened we had a recession and so Greenspan lowered rates to one to stimulate the economy now Powell's saying well we're going to raise rates to sedate the economy and it's still low and the problem is the budget deficits have exploded we're talking about maybe three trillion dollars a year now is what our annual budget deficit is the only way to finance that is for the FED to do more QE so even though it's talking about shrinking the balance sheet it's not really going to happen the balance sheet is going to keep expanding but not only do we have this huge budget deficit we have record trade deficits last year we had the first ever merchandise trade deficit to exceed one trillion dollars in a single year and in the month of December we hit a new record high we had over a 100 billion dollar deficit in December and these deficits are going to Skyrocket look at the price of oil now 92 93 dollars a barrel heading well above 100 a barrel this year we're at net importing all that a lot of oil that further runs up the trade deficit so there's no way to finance this the FED is going to be forced to print even more money so while it's pretending it's going to take the punch bowl away it's going to continue to spike it but it's not going to be enough to sustain the asset bubble so the change in monetary policy is a significant enough shift to prick the bubble in tech stocks and momentum stocks but it's not big enough to slow down inflation so we're going to have stagflation we're going to have a week in the economy Rising inflation and that is a very different investment landscape than the one investors have been used to over the past 10 20 years the manufacturers are going to have to pass on those higher costs to their customers because they have to operate at a profit so at a minimum they have to pass on the costs but what they end up doing is is actually passing on more than the cost because you have to find a new equilibrium because every time the company raises prices it does lose some buyers on the margin because we're all sensitive to price I mean if we weren't sensitive the companies would just Jack the prices even higher the reason that there's a lid on prices is because companies are looking for the optimal price where they can sell the most amount of stuff and make the most amount of money and so as you raise prices you start losing some of your customers so there's a sweet spot where you can have the maximum amount of profit well that all changes when your costs go up so when their costs go up they have to find a new equilibrium where they can maximize their profits but what happens are is as you start raising your prices you start losing some customers and so now you know you have fewer customers to try to average out all your fixed costs so the new equilibrium price where you can maximize your profits and ends up being even higher than just the increase of costs because you have to make up for the loss of customers so what happens in an inflationary environment is businesses keep selling fewer and fewer products at higher and higher prices and those customers that can afford the higher prices keep buying and those that can't well they go without the products last year though businesses didn't raise prices enough that was the problem because you had the federal chairman and all the economists were telling everybody oh don't worry about these Rising costs this is all transitory right and so the business owners believed the economists they absorbed these price hikes in their own costs because they didn't want to just raise their prices if it was just you know a one-off thing if it was just higher costs for a few months they probably figured you know what we'll just eat that you know it's not worth raising prices losing out to our competitors and knowing playing our customers you know we'll just ride it out because you know it's temporary but as we got to the end of the year and now these companies look back like look at we just got the earnings on Friday for Clorox and Clorox got killed like new down 10 52-week low why'd it get beat up well they missed why they missed because their costs were up a lot and obviously they didn't raise their prices nearly enough to cover the increase in costs and so I think a lot of these businesses that were kind of con into this false sense of complacency on what was happening now they have a lot of catching up to do not only do they have to get ahead of the curve for 2022 to start factoring in Rising costs for 2022 but they got to catch up for all the Lost ground from 2021 so they have to raise prices a lot and that's one of the reasons I've been saying that rather than 2022 you know CPI and you know number coming down from the seven percent we got last year 2022 is probably going to be higher now you're going to go maybe from seven percent to ten percent first of all wages are rising the problem is they're not Rising as much as prices so right people are running out of ammo but some people are not buying stuff look what's happened recently to Car Sales I mean car prices have gone way up and so car sales are coming down I mean people are buying fewer cars you know it's happening in the real estate market I mean the prices went way up and so fewer people can afford to buy them so they're still trading but you know not as many people can afford the buy now certain things like food I mean people are going to keep spending money on food but they change what they buy right they don't buy as much steak they buy more you know Hamburger right so they're not eating as well as they would like to because they can't afford some of the stuff that they used to be able to afford they have to trade down it's going to happen across the board that people are going to buy cheaper stuff or less things and it's probably already happening it's just going to happen for as the inflation gets worse you want to skew your portfolio to stuff that people have to buy not stuff that they buy because they want to right so people have to buy certain products right and so you've got much more pricing power if the consumer has to buy where you're selling versus a discretionary item that you know if he has any money left over you know he'll buy that but you know but first he has to take care of what he needs before he can start buying you know what he wants and so yeah if you look at a lot of the stocks that we own those are the companies a lot of these consumer companies or utilities you got to pay your electric bill you don't want to be in the dark I mean you can use less electricity you can you know watch how many lights you leave on you can adjust your thermostat but you're going to buy electricity no matter what you're not going to you know live in the dark and use candles so these companies are still going to sell that energy right your gasoline people are still going to drive cars they may not drive as often but they're still going to drive maybe they're not going to take a long vacation or maybe they'll carpool but you're still going to buy gas so these oil companies are still going to make money but you know you buy these things that you know people are going to keep buying and you can raise your prices your costs go up and you raise your prices and you can stay ahead and you can pay dividends and absolutely you have to be in companies that have a lot of pricing power
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