저자: Finance Now · 외국인
다듬은 글
if the smartest people in the world are now selling their core holdings that they told you they would never sell and you are not reconsidering your position on things you're either much smarter than them or you're being really really reckless is that i really don't like this culture that's emerged via twitter mostly where you all of a sudden have to be this maximalist that basically falls on their sword and never sells in order to be legitimate and i think that that's a really dangerous place to be so you know look if i take a much much bigger step back let me put solana in the context of crypto and let me put crypto in the context of the markets and where we are today at the end of the week after you know uh qt earnings uh in november of 2021 we have the stock market at absolute all-time highs ripping we have crypto at absolute all-time highs we have the art markets i don't know if you guys saw phillips and christie's and sotheby's this past week at absolute all-time highs we have inflation at a 30-year high we have 10-year break-evens at a 25-year high we have you know one point somewhat trillion dollars that we just approved last week weekend we're still horse trading on another three you know 1.8 trillion dollars of stimulus that we're going to put in and so when you and then you have i and i think the the most important thing which is the two most important founders of our generation the two smartest people who have really consistently won elon musk and jeff bezos have collectively sold more than 11 billion dollars of their holdings this year alone and if you can't take all of that and decide for yourself what's right for you and your family you're doing yourself a disservice i think it's important for me to never sort of like you know be forced to tell folks whether i'm buying or selling although i'm willing to do it in moments where i think it's important but i think it's really important to understand the context and so i think like these folks that like think derisively about individuals who are managing risk i think it's really naive and i think it's um it creates a lot of missed opportunity for them as well if the smartest people in the world are now selling their core holdings that they told you they would never sell and you are not reconsidering your position on things you're either much smarter than them or you're being really really reckless but what's so funny is half the people on twitter spend all their time in crypto lens saying things like never going to make it have fun staying poor they're extremely jason as you said tribal i'm not sure that they're doing first principles analysis of these things they've gone they've got exceptionally lucky yeah some of them are exceptionally good but many people broadly speaking have gotten exceptionally lucky and i think a little bit of it is getting to their head where they become you know very virulent against people that they think you know whose perspectives may actually be negatively affecting their position without actually understanding what david said which is these are incredibly deep liquid markets and one person's opinion is can't do much of anything we spend a lot of time actually before we do anything is that's the only thing we've been looking at you know and syndica fractal a lot of the stuff that we've done deso is purely driven by developer interest when we see developers in the open source ecosystem building things on top of the stuff making stuff that's composable and usable by other people and building infrastructure you know we don't really second-guess that because they are spending their the most important currency which is not monetary capital but human capital and so when enough developers so i i've always thought you just follow the developers and as more and more projects get started you just have to unemotionally support that i think the writing is on the wall which is bitcoin is gold ethereum looks like it's trending to be silver and solana could be the first but there will be others that come after it of real developer ecosystems that can be built on top of it the other the other thing that i would offer up to people for them to think about is before you blindly go and rush into crypto one way in which i try to think about these things is in the following way you see these projects get started all the time and i would view each of these projects as a mini economy and really try to think what is the economic value of what's happening under the hood so simple example you know helium is an interesting project that's trying to build a completely decentralized you know 5g infrastructure right render is a really interesting uh project that's trying to build a completely decentralized you know graphical processing infrastructure right gpus essentially in both of those things you can quantifiably economically measure what the value is that people get right in the case of render you're basically displacing an aws instance and so um that has a price and a value and so you know for render to be valuable there's an economic value that it replaces if you're joining a hotspot that has an economic value where you hadn't necessarily have to pay you know to get internet connectivity if you all of a sudden are on the helium network that displaces a measurable economic quantum understanding that is probably and taking the absolute value of that is the best way of really understanding which projects have potential so if you take those two ideas and marry them together where is their developer interest and where is their measurable economic activity at the intersection of those i think are the really compelling projects that can win there's a the all of these things are intertwined and so you know if you want to just bear with me for a second like when when this let's go to the the entry-level economic job right so you're a barista at starbucks or you work at mcdonald's and you're making 17 to 20 an hour what that does it it shifts labor and eventually there are other people that are entering the workforce or you know may shift jobs and essentially it just causes this leaky bucket effect where everybody else has to then accommodate itself so you know you have a guy like uh you know you have a company like amazon which is now going to pay 25 or 30 dollars to keep folks right because otherwise they may say oh you know if i make 15 or 16 an hour i'd rather work at mcdonald's it's not back breaking work blah blah so then they start to um increase the amount that they pay they increase their benefits and the like didn't i saw this thing this week there's a crazy thing that's happening though which is it's now pulling people from non-traditional job classes into those jobs there are teachers that are leaving teaching to go work at an amazon warehouse there are firefighters that are quitting being a firefighter to go work at an amazon warehouse because you make the same or more plus you have all of these other benefits and the job is structurally a lot easier and so people are making different optimizations and to that point i think we talked about this and nick you can put it in the group chat in reddit as an example there is more engagement in the subreddit around having a simple work life than there is now in wall street bets right so there's been a structural cultural change where people need to get paid more to do the same amount of work and then at the same time you have all of the all of the supply side getting more expensive fertilizer makes corn more expensive lumber makes house prices more expensive chip prices makes the iphone and cars more expensive or completely backlogged you know yesterday poker sunny was showing us he bought a tesla and the delivery period october of 2022.
yeah it's freaking crazy so i i think that it's a it's this is the beginning of a persistence in 1980 we changed the goal posts for cpi so even as a measurement to know what we look at and i think jack dorsey tweeted this out so nick you may be able to find this tweet but you know we changed the measurement of how cpi measures and so if you go back to the original measurement uh it looks like inflation in cpi is uh much more pernicious than we would otherwise think it if we just look at the the new cpi that we that we started to look at as of 1980 so um that's another sort of like point we did this we did the same thing with i just go back to what i said earlier who had given up the two smartest people that we both know are net sellers
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