저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
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아요디야 라마 사원 개관 이후 종교 관광 붐으로 도시와 항공·교통 산업에 큰 경제 효과가 기대된다는 주장. 3분기 실적은 전반적으로 미지근하나 자본재 쪽은 양호, 소비 쪽은 약함. 은행권은 예금 이탈로 NIM 압박이 있으나 대출 성장으로 상쇄 가능. 중국 시장은 큰 폭 조정 후 이익 성장 부진, 인도는 이익 성장 10~15%로 시장 지지. 인도 밸류에이션은 과거 저점 대비 높아졌고 정부 지분 매각 등 수급 변수 언급.
다듬은 글
let's get you a very interesting conversation that we had uh this is a conversation that Anu had with ram Agarwal in aoda he's there for the you know inauguration of the temple and they spoke about a wide ranging uh you know discussion on various parts of the market where he really sees the possibility of religious tourism in India thanks to the ram Mand in aoda so listen in this is snippet of that very interesting conversation it's wonderful the temperature here is 5° we are feeling must be less than five I think right so we are at at the at the banks of suu river and we are feeling as if we in the top of Himalayas uh absolutely foggy wonderful it is I think the day is expected to be bright and sunny Temple inauguration was absolutely picture picture perfect Modi came Yogi G came all the trust uh authorities uh Logistics many important thing is they have International Quality airport and uh roads are beautiful I stayed in ad ban uh they're also very good so all the all the uh all the facilities are good and river side is developed very well I think this city is on the way to become one of the spots in the country and it will rise like rocket I'm sure and uh so I think uh a new Temple Town is in making of course Aya is an old town but uh Now new AA is coming up around the temple and uh uh the kind of people who are going to come so it's going to be interesting to see how how this uh city rises and what the heart is do to harness the potential of uh uh what do you call religious tourism absolutely uh you got a chance of course to see the temple with the with with the chief up chief minister Yogi Adat and he was there of course with the entire industrialist Lobby how was that experience uh that was I mean I think we there we reached there by 9 9:30 and uh actual function happened about 2 33 or something like that so it was 6 7 hours of this thing beautiful uh in the open on the backdrop of the temple and uh when the temple got opened was the first I we the first round of 2,000 people to enter and uh it is fully decorated I think it sometime it was most special occasion so the right now I think Temple is deed up with all kinds of flowers beautiful flowers and this weather so I think it's a very unique d and we had a peaceful Das out there I went twice actually and uh I mean really I I think uh uh what I would say a great place is uh absolutely has come into being absolutely hisorical moment absolutely historical moment a word on the market Ram given that you know we are of course uh uh today we had a good opening for the market we had a bit of a correction after HDFC bank's numbers uh but what have you made of the earnings picture so far and the market I have seen the Aggregates I mean my uh head resarch is not willing to cut the earnings so far but it looks bit tepid in the sense that uh uh the overall aggregate earnings because of consumers and all are not the growth is very U you know kind of weak so I think um let's see uh the the demand side looks to be little weaker but as the earnings progresses the Automobiles and other sector defense and capex goods companies they report Capital Market companies they report so I think let's see the I mean we are in the earning let's wait for 10 15 days more and get the Aggregates uh but uh but doesn't seem to be a blowout quarter to be but uh the concerns on banking uh is it uh is it I mean genuine do you think uh uh it's it's something which could derail the market a bit not derail the market it can slow down the earnings growth in the uh bfsi side because the the deposit movement deposit accretion to the banking system is slower particularly the low cost deposits of s that savings account is low is the weak rather because people are preferring coming to the capital markets and uh looking at stock market kind of options for alternative deployment and that that kind of reduces the mix of the deposits and raises the cost of the deposit and liability so so the Nim is under pressure and if Nim is under pressure what is the Saving Grace is that demand loan demand is good so you can grow at 18 20% because system growth is 15% so you can grow at 20 25% in terms of volume and that gives you some operating leverage so the combination of volume and operating leverage that help that cushions the pressure on the name and hence profitability could be saved but uh how bad this uh deposit flight will be in the Years Day quarters to come that only time 10 okay uh since we are in aodha and we've been talking a lot about the travel and the tourism and all these kind of stocks and they've seen a big rally whether it's the Railway stocks whether it's the airport stocks Airlines I mean we have only one proper listed stock now uh what do you make of that yeah so see as far as travel is concerned you have seen the kind of possibility I mean just aoda I think between Mumbai and aoda and I don't know all the Metro cities they'll connect to aodha I think they can have probably few hundred flights daily you can do morning evening you know shuttles you can do and you can just develop huge economic boom for aodha and the AV industry just out of one city and there are so many cities where people have faith and uh reasons to uh so I think the possibility for uh this kind of economic development is huge and U I think there's a momentum in the economy there's a momentum in the government tax revenues that leading to what you call capex boom and uh the continuity of this regime uh so I think we'll see in June July whether there is a further push there will be I'm sure they will further push and then they have not used one of the one of the tools that is the divestment uh divestment tool securitization of the government Holdings that that portion I I'm sure in 24 25 budget there will be a lot more push valuations are attractive now in fact uh 6 months back it was a lowest in the history and now it is probably highest in the history I think governments must and it is also necessary to cool the market down to bring the sanity and uh so I think there will be very interesting they'll have earnings growth uh good demand but also uh one should be careful the government flow will come that's a very same view that you put Mr Ral one last word since you are someone who talks to fi also you have a AMC of your own you have a large institutional brokerage and some part of retail brokerage as well you basically know about the each and every uh sort of investor in the market right now we have seen a lot of uh uh retail in flow we have seen some fi outflow uh what's your sense about this year see I today morning I was reading the the what you call decimation of Chinese market it is economy is doing fine 4 5% growth is there so econom is not in such a bad shape but I was reading the thing they saying that they lost 20% of the market I think $6 trillion they lost in last uh one one and half years and uh I was looking at this few companies there no company I mean I looked at few companies they they all are single digit multiples 11 9 10 P multiples but there's no earnings growth and earnings have slowed down I think aggregate consens earnings are down by 7 8% forward 12 months uh just the contrast is India where earnings go is 10 15% so and that is what is holding the market so what is important is to see that earnings continue the demand doesn't weaken in the economy so capital good side looks good but consumer side looks to be a little weaker so I think authorities and the budgets I think will take care of maybe interest rate Cuts will also cushion the consumer demand interesting conversation over there
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