저자: RohitTated · 외국인
요약 보기
라케시 장존자 투자 전략(현금흐름 중시, 순이익 아닌 영업현금흐름)을 설명. 30~35x 영업현금흐름 기반 적정시총 공식으로 릴라이언스 적정가 약 3950 제시(현재 대비 약 3배, 시점 불명). 부채비율 낮은 기업, 이익 질, 추세 추종(trend is friend) 강조. 구체적 단기 매매 예측 없음.
다듬은 글
Hi everyone welcome to Stacks vs Rohit. Today you might see The Jhunjhunwala Blueprint written on the board. And that's right, today this video is on the strategies of Rakesh Jhunjhunwala ji. Some of his main strategies that he used for valuation. Today we will discuss how valuation should be done according to some of their proven methods.
And we will understand through actual examples whether that valuation method is right or wrong. Let's go. Let us understand what were the cash flow and compounding strategies of India's Big Bull. Look at cash flow, not net profit. See Net Profit on Books Profit can be shown by many companies. But unless the cash is received, that profit will not be called profit.
Suppose you are making a lot of sales. We are making so many sales. But your competitors are earning cash even though they sell less than you and you are not earning any cash. Your money is stuck in receivables. People are not giving you money. Why? Because you have implemented some such strategies in your business due to which your sales are happening.
Your competitors' sales are decreasing but they are earning money but you are not earning money and you are getting trapped in a trap. So this is a big red flag because of which you continuously keep increasing your receivables in the books. What is receivables? If you make a sale but do not receive the money, it appears as receivable on the asset side of your balance sheet.
Meaning you have to take that much money from your customers. You may have given some such offers to your customers that you may have given them a credit period of 180 days or 360 days due to which they got the sale but the money is coming after 360 days. Now if his intention changes after 360 days then it becomes your bad day.
Therefore, cash flow is important in business. If there is cash flow in the business then expansion in the business also happens easily. So this is what is written. Most retail investors invest only by looking at the net profit. You don't need net profit, Jhunjhunwala's secret weapon was free cash flow i.e.
cash flow from operating activity. Meaning, the cash flow generated from the actual business should be the major portion here and that particular thing you have to see here. Secondly, profit may be only on paper but cash flow is the real truth. Meaning, only cash flow will tell you whether the actual earning is happening or not.
That is why Jhunjhunwala ji said that here you should not only look at the net profit but also the cash flow. We will also look at cash flow here. The second point he said was that quality of earnings is most important. Just looking at the big profit numbers will not be enough for you here. Is there quality of earning or not?
Meaning, whether that profit will be sustained in future or not. What is the government policy going to be? How is his product? How is business? One should also know how to recognize the business. What is the future probability of business growth? All these things should be observed. Only then will you understand the quality of earning.
Now we will understand that if we take the example of Reliance Industries, their quality of earnings is A1 because there is diversification in their quality of business. If one business does not run, some government rule comes into effect in one business, some subsidy is reduced in one business, then the other business will take care of it.
So definitely being a conglomerate, the business of Reliance Industries is so diversified that your risk keeps reducing again and again. Why? Because their businesses are spread across different places and are diversified. So there are different ways to check the quality of earnings. We will discuss this later.
But you have to choose only those businesses which have high sustainable and scalable earnings. For example Reliance Industries. We will move ahead. Jhunjhunwala ji had a rule which we call the magic rule. And I had discussed this in my last video of Adani Ports and in that I had also told you how Junior Nola ji used to calculate the valuation here, fair valuation, fair market cap, so what is the formula for fair market cap here, its fair market cap is equal to 30 and 35x, if you take it conservatively then you take 30 into annual operating cash flow, where will you get the number of annual operating cash flow, come to the desktop, I have kept this Reliance Industries open on the screener here.
You will find the annual operating cash flow in this part. If you look here, this is the annual operating cash flow number and this is the annual number and you will see that the annual number is continuously increasing. It has reached 178703. Meaning if we multiply 178703 by 30 then its market cap will come out.
If we catch these 30, the market cap of Reliance will reach almost Rs 54 lakh crore. And let us check what the valuation is right now. Currently the valuation is Rs 19 lakh crore. Meaning if the price is 1390 per ₹1 lakh crore. It is 1390, which means you can multiply it here and see if its market cap is Rs 19 lakh crore, divided by 1390, then your number of shares will come to 1366.
And if we go back to our PPT, if we divide 1366 by this, then the actual fair value price of Reliance will come to 3950, which means almost 3x of what it is trading at now and you will not be surprised to believe that Reliance is doing really well and if the Indian economy grows, then you can see the price of Reliance going up to 3950 and I have no doubt in this.
But again, all these valuations here are future valuations. Therefore, we do not know when this price will come. But we had to check the fair value from the cash flow which was the method of Jhunjhunwala ji, from this the fair value of Reliance is coming out to be 3950. I had shown you the fair value of Adani Port in which its market cap was coming to Rs 50000 crores from which we calculated the fair value.
Actually the price was coming to a target price of Rs 2200. So if you have not seen that video then go and watch the video of Adani Port. We have created that video with excellent PPT and have also discussed the valuation methods in it. Let's move ahead. Two pillars of strong business. What has Junior G said about the two pillars of a strong business?
High Cash Generation and Low Dept. So again we had this example in Adani Port. There was high cash generation and also low debt. Meaning, choose such companies where cash flow is very strong. Operating cash flow is consistently in the positive and never decreasing. Secondly, his dept levels are low.
So when there is high cash flow, there will be no need to take loan and the interest will reduce and PNL will automatically improve. So you can choose the best companies here. Check the return on equity. I mean, what does it really mean ? He explained that return on equity is equal to net income divided by shareholders' equity.
The efficiency of a company is measured by how much profit it earns on the shareholder's investment. Debt to equity ratio is the meter of risk, meaning I said that one should invest in the company which has less debt. Is the company borrowing more than it owns? Having a low debt equity ratio is crucial for survival and growth.
Total debt divided by total equity will give you low debt, your day to equity ratio will be less, if here our day is in the numerator, hence if it is low day then it will actually be less and it should be less than two. Is PE ratio a science or an art? Actually Big Bull has said that price to earnings ratio is not just a maths.
This is your science and art at the same time. They understand what science and art are. Science means it defines numbers and art means it defines business understanding. So you do not have to just look at the PE number, how much PE is coming for the company and what is the industry PE, we have compared it and after comparing it, we have created a complete valuation method there.
But you also need to know the understanding of business. All these things have to be seen whether the quality of earnings is sustaining or not. According to that you have to define the PE ratio there. Rule number one buy the right seat tight. Maharaj Ji said that if you have chosen the right company then the market fluctuations should not affect you.
You have to say bye right and stay sitting there. You will see the magic of compounding in 5-10 years. But this is a very difficult task. Rule number two is trend is friend. Always follow the trend. And the trend that is going on, let's say right now a bearish trend is going on, then do n't take too many bullish chances.
Don't buy too many shares. Don't do too much activity. You may suffer losses in the market. But if the trend is bullish then you have to be aggressive. You have to take more trades and you also have to book more profits there. You don't have to catch falling shares falling knives. If a share is falling, then there must be some reason behind it and if you are not able to find the reason then there must be some reasons which FII or DII would be aware of and due to which you are seeing the shares continuously falling there.
Invest only in those stocks which are already in uptrend, where breakouts are coming and where you see the fundamentals as per your expectations. The Mature vs. Big Bull Mindset What does a mature investor do? He only looks at net profit and what does Bigbull look at? Looks at free cash flow. Absolute looks at earnings numbers.
Looks at the quality of earnings. Here it is defined just by looking at the numbers. Only Maths understands EPS and PE. Considers PE as science plus art. What is a beginner's doubt? What to do if the company 's profit is high but cash flow is low ? This is absolutely a red flag. This means that the company is selling goods but the money is not coming into the bank.
Always rely on cash generation. Meaning, manipulation can happen here but manipulation will not happen here. If money is coming into your bank account, you will definitely see it. So what is Jhunjhunwala ji's five step blueprint? Here's what we created for you. Focus on cash flow. Second point 30 35x rule, I showed you the market cap.
Introduce the actual operating cash flow coming in yearly from 3035. You will get to know the real market cap. Divided by number of shares. You will get the target price. The company should have a low department. Buy right set tight and trend is friend. This is Jhunjhunwala's five- step blueprint which he used to select shares.
So what's your ultimate takeaway? Real wealth in the stock market is n't built solely on numbers. Choose the right business quality plus cash flow. Buy at the right valuation of 3035 off pcs and let the most important compounding do its work in time. So these were the five rules blueprint of Jhunjhunwala ji which I explained to you in the video here and if you understood this video, if you found something inspiring in it then please subscribe to my channel and like this video and keep watching Stacks V Rohit
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