저자: PeterSchiff—제목기준출연자,소속은자막내명시확인어려움 · 외국인
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결론: 피터 쉬프는 금 가격이 현재 조정(약 4,000~4,100달러대)을 거쳐 다시 크게 오를 것이라 보며, 은 역시 저평가 상태이고 금광주도 매력적이라고 주장한다. 금 시장 전망: 금은 최근 4,600달러 부근까지 올랐다가 4,100달러대로 조정받았다. 쉬프는 연준의 금리 인상 기대가 하락의 원인이었다고 보지만, 인플레이션이 금리 인상폭보다 크게 오르고 있어 실질금리는 시장 예상보다 낮다고 주장한다. 4,000달러 부근이 지지선이라고 본다. 인플레이션과 연준: 2026년 9개월 CPI 상승률이 4%이며, 연말 CPI가 5%대에 이를 것으로 예상한다. 이 경우 연준 기준금리가 여전히 마이너스 실질금리 상태로 남아 사실상 완화적 통화정책이라고 평가한다. M2는 연 6% 증가 중이며, 워시 연준의장 취임 후 금리는 25bp 인상 한 번뿐이라 '인플레이션 파이터'가 아니라고 비판한다. 국채금리: 쉬프는 미국채 금리 상승이 금에 역풍처럼 보이지만 실제로는 마이너스 실질금리를 키워 금에 순풍이 될 것이라고 본다. 2027년 CPI가 7%를 넘을 가능성이 크지만 기준금리는 5%를 크게 넘기 어렵다고 본다. 국가부채 이자비용이 연 2조 달러에 근접해 사회보장 지출을 넘어서고, 결국 연준이 QE를 재개할 것이라는 주장이다. 은: 은 가격이 최근 57달러 부근으로 급락했으나 쉬프는 60달러 이하를 바닥권으로 보고, 50달러가 과거 1980~81년과 2011년에 강한 저항선이었던 만큼 새로운 지지선이 될 것이라고 본다. 금/은 비율 기준으로 은은 아직 금보다 싸다고 평가한다. 금광주: 광산업체들은 지하 매장량 가치가 금 가격 상승으로 커지는 반면 주가는 저평가되어 있다고 본다. 금 가격 대비 유가 비율이 역사적으로 낮아 채굴 환경이 좋다고 주장한다. 다만 에너지·인건비·금융비용 상승은 이익을 빠르게 잠식할 수 있어 주의가 필요하다. 원유와 연준: 쉬프는 유가가 앞으로 오를 것이고, 단기적으로는 긴축 기대로 금에 역풍이지만 결국 재정적자 확대와 QE로 이어져 금에 우호적이라고 본다. 위기 신호: 쉬프가 제시한 신호는 달러가 유로·파운드·엔화 대비 약세를 보이는 것, 뜨거운 인플레이션 지표에 금이 오히려 상승하는 것, 금리 상승 때 채권이 오르는 것 등이다. 이런 신호가 겹쳐야 달러 신뢰 위기가 확인된다고 본다. 리스크 및 전망: 쉬프의 논리는 인플레이션과 재정 악화를 전제로 하며, 금과 은은 단기 급락 가능성이 크고 유동성 위기 시 매도 압력이 나올 수 있다. 쉬프 자신은 실물 금·은을 보유하고 가격 하락을 무시하라고 조언한다.
다듬은 글
gold. The gold market broke back down slightly below 4,000. I think it maybe traded below 4,000 for one day. I see a real dollar crisis, a sovereign debt crisis, much higher prices. Meanwhile, you know, gold stocks are earning a lot more money now than they were a few years ago. Even this is a highly accommodated Fed that this is not an inflation fighting Fed.
So despite what Worsh has said that has spooked the gold market, I think gold prices are headed a lot higher. I think the price of gold is going to outpace the price of oil. I I think by the time we get the next 3 months of data, we're going to see a five handle on 2026 CPI. The negative yield is going to get bigger, which creates an even bigger incentive to avoid the loss by buying gold.
It makes sense that that type of parabolic rise wasn't sustainable and we had a pullback. Now, anything below $60, frankly, I think represents the bottom. Now, I think that, you know, 50 is probably the new 20 for silver. Silver still looks cheap to me. Now, gold looked like it was attempting to rally, rising from around 4,000 at the start of August, over 4,600 by the end of that month.
But since then, of course, we've seen a sharp selloff and now down to around $4,100 and change. What are your thoughts on that price action? Why do you think that rally failed to hold up? Well, I think the markets were surprised by the higher thanex expected inflation data, which you would in think intuitively is actually a bullish for for gold.
But it caused the Fed to have to change the market expectations from rate cuts to rate hikes. And in fact, the Fed delivered the first quarter point hike um in a recent meeting. And I think it was the fears of a tighter Fed and higher rates that caused gold to surrender the gains uh from that uh bounce.
But I think that we're retesting and building solid support around that 4,000 level, which is where gold initially fell to after hitting a new all-time record high about 5600. Gold, the gold market broke back down slightly below 4,000. I think it maybe traded below 4,000 for one day, maybe two tops, uh, before recovering.
And this time around, it hasn't even been below 4,000. It's been below 4,100, but it still held uh a forandle. So, I think that gold's getting ready for another big move up once the markets recognize that these rate hikes are meaningless, that they're not going to represent any kind of headwind for gold because the rate hikes are much uh smaller than the increase in inflation, the unexpected increase in inflation.
In fact, inflation has already increased by much more than the Fed is even contemplating that they might raise rates. So, real rates are actually much lower than the market expected them to be. So, the gold price should be much higher. Gold's correction may be exposing a dangerous misunderstanding about what actually protects purchasing power.
Peter Schiff notes that gold fell from above $4,600 toward $4,100 as markets anticipated tighter Federal Reserve policy, but nominal rate hikes mean little when inflation rises faster. The contradiction is that supposedly restrictive policy can still leave savers losing ground in real terms. Investors should watch inflationadjusted yields, not headlines alone.
Next, Peter Schiff exposes why rising Treasury yields could ultimately strengthen gold's bullish case. I want to talk about the Fed for a moment because the traditional belief of course is that rising yields are on both treasuries and of course a raise in the Fed funds rate is bearish for precious metals.
However, at this point, even if you're getting north of 5% on a Treasury bill, you're not outpacing the real rate of inflation. Considering how cooked the CPI and other government inflation statistics actually are, do you think rising yields, if we do see more rate hikes, if we see a higher yield on the US Treasury bills, are those currently one of the headwinds holding gold back?
And if so, could we see further downside ahead if we do see the long-term treasuries, the 20 and 30 year, get to that 6% or above on the yield? Yeah. Well, I think it's the misperception of what those rising bond yields imply that is a headwind for gold for now, but that misperception is going to clear up at some point.
you know, if you look at the CPI and as you mentioned, it's it's a flawed measure because it under underestimates what's actually happening. But so far in 2026, during the first 9 months of this year, the CPI is up 4%. It was up 2.9% for all of 2024, which was the the last year under Biden. Uh it was 3.4 for in 2023, Biden's, you know, second to last year.
So, we're already above both of those years and we got three more months left. I think by the time we get the next three months of data, we're going to see a five handle on 2026 CPI. And so, by that measure, the Fed funds rate will still end the year negative. that is not a uh you know a restrictive monetary policy that is highly accommodative and in fact the highest inflation got in any calendar year under Biden was 7% in 2021.
A Treasury yield above 5% sounds attractive until inflation quietly destroys the advantage. According to Peter Schiff, 9-month inflation of 4% in 2026 could leave monetary policy effectively accommodative despite rising rates. The deeper issue is whether bond investors are being compensated for purchasing power losses or merely accepting them.
For retirees holding cash in fixed income assets, that distinction can reshape long-term wealth. Next, Peter Schiff unravels why higher yields may signal monetary weakness rather than economic strength. I think there's a very good chance that 2027 will be higher than seven, but I doubt the Fed funds rate will be much higher than five.
So the the the negative yield is going to get bigger. Uh which creates an even bigger incentive to avoid the loss by buying gold. So, you know, rather than a headwind for gold, I think the rising bond yields are going to be a tailwind because they're not going to rise enough to offset the loss to inflation.
And in fact, as rates rise and more US government debt matures and needs to be rolled over and you get this upward pressure on the cost of carrying debt, the most recent government numbers showed 1.4 trillion now is the annual tab for interest on the national debt. But that number gets bigger every month and you know sometime next year it's going to hit two trillion which means it will be bigger than social security.
Social security is 1.7 trillion right now. Of course that number is going to get bigger next year as well. But interest on the national debt is now the second biggest government expense but the fastest rising government expense. So, at some point, the Fed is going to have to not only stop hiking, but actually ramp up the QE program because there aren't going to be enough private buyers uh for negative yielding treasuries.
Now, if gold bugs are lamenting right now due to a drop in the gold price, silver stackers are even more upset as we see the metal plunge to around $57 after soaring to triple digits earlier in the year. I've personally been a buyer at these levels. I'm wondering if you're seeing this as an opportunity to accumulate and how low do you think silver could go in a worst case scenario?
Well, I mean, I think that $50 is the support because I think that was the resistance that basically uh was holding the market back since 1980 81. Uh it acted as very substantial resistance in 2011. America's debt bill could become a bigger threat to savers than a temporary market crash. Peter Schiff argues that annual federal interest costs could approach $2 trillion, potentially pressuring policymakers toward renewed quantitative easing.
That creates a brutal dilemma. Higher rates make government borrowing more expensive, while easier money risks worsening inflation. For investors, neither cash nor bonds automatically guarantees preserved purchasing power. Next, Peter Schiff exposes why silver's $50 level could matter far beyond a routine correction.
And even as gold initially rose from 2,000 to 4,000, silver still couldn't get above that. It wasn't until gold really finally had that, you know, 4 to $5,000 rally that all of a sudden silver went from 30 to 125. It was just an explosion uh with a breakout. It makes sense that that type of parabolic rise wasn't sustainable and we had a pullback.
Now, the pullback was actually bigger than I had expected when we were trading at those levels, but I didn't think that it would be out of the question. And I think that anything below $60, frankly, I think represents the bottom now. I think that, you know, 50 is probably the new 20, you know, for silver.
And you know, we're going a lot higher. So, it's been a bigger correction than what we had in gold, but um silver still looks cheap to me relative to gold, even though it's not as cheap as it was. You know, it was 100 to1 at one point. It was over 100 to1 when when when you know, gold was uh at the highs and silver was still you know, below 30.
It was at 20 and barely above 20 even. Gold and silver equities also taking quite a hit recently. What are your thoughts on the gold and silver miners here? And how do you view physical metals versus miners in terms of portfolio allocation? Well, you know, there are different uh types of investments.
I look at gold, physical gold and silver as money as just being a store of value. They're not investments per se. They're just a way to preserve your purchasing power. I think that gold and silver mining companies as a an investor, as a stock market investor, I think these businesses are undervalued because I think investors just don't understand how much higher the price of gold and silver will be in the future and how much money these companies are going to make, not only on their mining operations, but how much more valuable their reserves are going to become.
Silver's violent reversal reveals how quickly momentum can turn against investors who confuse a breakout with a permanent flaw. What Peter Schiff is highlighting is the historical importance of $50 resistance and the metal's dramatic surge toward 125. But a sharp decline alone cannot prove that a bottom is established, especially after speculative buying accelerates.
Investors must weigh potential upside against volatility and downside exposure. Next, Peter Schiff reveals why miners could offer greater leverage to rising metals prices and greater risk with much higher metal prices. So, I have a lot more mining stocks uh than I just have physical metal because I I think I'm getting a much better deal on the gold that's still in the ground than buying what's already been mined.
Given that my outlook doesn't really march match uh the the conventional wisdom of of of future gold prices, I I see a real dollar crisis, a sovereign debt crisis, much higher prices. Meanwhile, you know, gold stocks are earning a lot more money now than they were a few years ago. Even though the price of gold has pulled back, look at where it is.
And even though oil prices are high in dollar terms at, you know, over $90 a barrel, when gold is over $4,000 an ounce, historically, that's a very cheap relationship between uh gold and oil. And and and oil is, you know, a major cost component of mining. But since the price of gold, this has risen more than the price of oil.
Uh I it's a great environment for these gold mining companies. And I think gold prices are headed a lot higher. I think the price of gold is going to outpace the price of oil. I think both are headed higher actually. So I think oil prices are going to go up. And in the short run, rising oil prices have again acted as a headwind for gold uh because the markets perceive that as meaning a a tighter Fed.
But ultimately, higher oil prices are going to be mean a looser Fed because the Fed is going to accommodate those higher oil prices with bigger budget deficits and more quantitative easing. And that's going to be bullish for gold. We're going to have more inflation as a result not of the pri rise in the price of oil, but as a result of the the monetary policy that the Fed will pursue uh as a result of the increase in the price of oil.
Mining profits can rise even when gold prices stall, but that advantage depends on costs remaining under control. Peter Schiff's argument suggests miners may be undervalued because their underground reserves could become more profitable as metal prices climb. Yet, expensive energy, labor, financing, and operational setbacks can erase that leverage quickly.
Investors comparing miners with physical bullion must recognize they are buying businesses, not simply metal exposure. Next, Peter Schiff exposes how an oil shock could pressure the Fed into policies that strengthen gold. And so, if we do see a crash in the broad market, do you think gold and silver and related equities will take a big hit?
And in such an event, do you think it's prudent to keep extra cash on the sidelines right now? Or do you think it's more, you know, time in the market versus timing the market that makes sense here? Well, I wouldn't be worried about your physical precious metals. Even if we're to go down temporarily, I don't believe it would stay down.
And it may not go down at all. Maybe this is as far down as we're going. You don't know. Uh, and it depends on how preemptive, you know, the government's going to be. When are they going to recognize the problem and and come out with the big guns, right? The big QE program. Are they going to wait till after everything crashes or early in the crash, recognize what's coming and try to get ahead of it?
So, you don't know. So, my my thought is always to just hold your gold and silver. Don't worry if the price goes down because you're not selling it when the price is going down. You're holding it because we know eventually not only will the price be way up, but it may be what we need uh as money. It may be the only thing that actually buys something.
Uh when we have to purchase goods or services from other people, gold may be how they want to be paid or silver. They may not want dollars. We don't know what the dollar is going to be worth or you know if people will be willing to exchange valuable goods and services for what may be worthless pieces of paper.
The gold and silver will always have value and so people will be willing to trade value for value. they just not may not be willing to trade value for nothing. Uh and that's you know one of the reasons I'm developing my T- gold platform is to really get out in front of that so that when people own their gold and we have it stored for them that we actually are creating a mechanism that makes it easier to use your gold as a a medium of exchange to actually conduct uh 24-hour day, 7-day a week commerce in gold.
Whether you're paying somebody gold for their goods and services or whether they're paying you gold in exchange for your goods or services, the real danger in a market crash may be selling protection precisely when everyone suddenly wants it. According to Peter Schiff, physical gold and silver could retain purchasing power through monetary turmoil, while renewed quantitative easing might eventually support prices.
But investors should separate that thesis from certainty. Metals can fall sharply and emergency expenses still require liquidity. A resilient portfolio needs both protection and flexibility. Next, Peter Schiff reveals why gold's potential role as money challenges conventional assumptions about financial security.
What specific indicators would you say will reveal that we've crossed from a normal precious metals bull market into an actual dollar devaluation or confidence crisis? Now, a lot of what you've laid out seems to point in that direction. Um, is there any other parameters that you're watching that would point to dollar devaluation or confidence crisis?
I think one thing is you need to see the dollar actually losing value against its fiat counterparts. So if you see the dollar weakening against the euro, against the pound, against the yen, uh that would be one indication. Another one would be when you start to see the gold market responding to hotter than expected inflation numbers by going up, not down or when you see the bond market rising when interest rates rise, not bond yields, not falling.
because that will be a strong indication that the markets are figuring it out, that traders are recognizing that, you know, higher inflation numbers are not just a sign that the Fed is going to have to fight harder to beat inflation. They're confirming that the Fed has already lost the inflation fight, that inflation is won, that the Fed can't fight hard enough to beat it.
That is the problem. That that that is the actual reality. But the markets still don't get that. They see, oh, inflation is higher than we thought. Oh, the Fed is just going to have to be more aggressive. But they can't be. They they put themselves in a box. Look, uh, Worsh has been Fed chair for 5 months, and during those 5 months, the inflation numbers have gotten progressively worse.
Yet, we've only got one 25 basis point rate hike. That's it. Meantime, the balance sheet is bigger now than it was 5 months ago when he took office. and money supply M2 is growing at a 6% annualized rate. This is a highly accommodated Fed that this is not an inflation fighting Fed. So despite what Worsh has said that has spooked the gold market about his resolve and how the Fed is going to do whatever it takes to bring inflation down, so far what it's doing is is pushing inflation up.
So they forget about what they say. Look at what they do. The clearest warning of a currency crisis may arrive when markets stop reacting to inflation the way policymakers expect. This is where Peter Schiff's thesis shifts toward confidence itself. A weakening dollar, rising gold prices after hot inflation data, and persistent monetary expansion could signal changing investor expectations.
Still, no single indicator proves a crisis is underway. Several signals must converge.
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