저자: The Motley Fool · 외국인
요약 보기
Shopify가 3분기 실적을 발표했습니다. 매출 성장률은 32%, 영업이익은 66%, 잉여현금흐름은 60% 넘게 늘었지만, 화요일 장 초반 주가는 10% 하락했고 장 전 시간외에는 최대 16%까지 밀렸습니다. 원문은 이미 높은 기대가 주가에 반영돼 있었던 탓이라고 짚습니다. 주가매출비율은 약 13배, 주가수익비율은 86배로 여전히 높은 수준입니다. 핵심 지표를 보면 총거래액은 29% 늘어 1,191억 달러였고, 2분기 32%보다 둔화됐습니다. 반면 결제 거래액은 35%로 더 빠르게 성장했습니다. 구독 매출은 8억 3,600만 달러, 가맹점 솔루션 매출은 29억 달러로 늘었습니다. 총이익률은 47.6%로 낮아졌지만, 영업이익률은 12.1%에서 15.2%로 올랐습니다. 4분기 매출은 30% 안팎 성장이 전망됩니다.
다듬은 글
Shopify just reported third quarter results and had a phenomenal 32% revenue growth rate. Operating income jumped 66% and free cash flow was up over 60%. Those are phenomenal numbers for any company. But the stock is down 10% early in trading on Tuesday was down as much as 16% pre-market. So what is going on with the stock?
Is this a buying opportunity? That's the question that I'm going to answer today. And before we get to the numbers, I think the first thing you need to understand with Shopify is this company is currently and is often priced for perfection. This is a look at the company's price to sales multiple currently at about 13.
That's even after the decline that you see today. That's after you account for the jump in revenue that they had in the third quarter. Let's also pull in two other metrics that are important for investors. Price to earnings multiple that is an astounding 86 right now. and price to free cash flow is about 68.
So, Shopify stock is priced for perfection and it's not uncommon for the stock to have huge draw downs as a result. Even small misses of expectations can cause the stock to drop. But let's take a long-term view of what's going on at Shopify because I think it's hard to look at this quarter and not come away extremely bullish on the company itself.
Now, does the valuation make sense? We'll dig into that more in just a moment. Now, as a reminder, if you're not already subscribed to the Miley Fool's channel here on YouTube, go ahead and do that. I'd hit that subscribe button and the like button. Make sure you get all of our content when it comes out.
Now, let's start with the key performance indicators for Shopify because this is what's ultimately going to drive the business longterm. Gross merchandise volume was up 29% to $119.1 billion. Now, that was a little bit slower growth than the second quarter when growth was 32%. So, you start to think about what are investors concerned about?
Is growth decelerating? That's never something that you want to see with a company and it is something that we're seeing with Shopify. So those are when yellow flags start to go up, red flags if they really start to decelerate. I don't think this is a huge challenge cuz a 30% growth rate is still phenomenal, but something to keep an eye on.
Gross payment volume was actually even higher growth, 35% growth. This is going to be the payments that Shopify itself is actually processing with shop pay. The business is bas basically broken into two pieces. Subscription and merchant solutions. So subscription revenue was $836 million for the quarter.
That was up from $699 million a year ago. And this is where a lot of their margin is coming from. So when you build a shop store, for example, this is the subscription fee that you're paying for all the services that you get. They're able to build all these things once and then sell them thousands, millions of times to customers.
That's where you get really high margins. But that's also why people choose Shopify. The other piece is merchant solutions. This is going to be the revenue associated with actually processing those transactions. A little bit lower margin, but bigger numbers, $2.9 billion worth of revenue in the quarter.
So again, the key performance indicators and the business segments are moving in the right direction, growing 20 to 30 plus%. The question for investors today is, is that growth decelerating? And is it meeting current expectations based on the stock price? That's the push and pull of where shares are at today.
Let's also not forget about how well positioned Shopify is for the future. They talked about this on the conference call. Agent shopping is not something that's a big volume driver today. But Shopify is building out the tools and the infrastructure to make it a bigger piece of their business. So when somebody goes into a chatbot like Muse, maybe ChatGBT, and says, "Hey, you know what?
I want to order a new shirt. I need something for a home construction project." They will be able to go out and find the correct product. Shopify wants to be able to surface those products for those agents and make the purchasing process extremely seamless. This is why you build on a platform like Shopify if you're a merchant.
So, I think these are the tools that are going to be driving the company in the future, but they haven't really hit the income statement or the bottom line yet. The bullcase here is this is going to be more ways to discover products on the Shopify platform. they have the infrastructure and if Shopify's tools become embedded in a lot of these agents and how they're running that's going to be a phenomenal position to be.
The bare case is this may not actually drive as much value to those merchants. A big p piece of Shopify's business has been building that merchant solution and then the subscriptions and the ongoing relationship that you have with the customer. If agents are just making purchases for you, maybe that doesn't have quite as much value.
So, we'll have to see how this plays out. This is not a big piece of fin the financials yet, but it is something that I think Shopify is extremely well positioned for in the future. So now let's take a step back and actually look at where the business is today because I think when you take a higher level view of Shopify, things are moving in the right direction in almost every case.
Here a little bit of a busy chart, but what you have with the green column is the quarterly revenue for Shopify. You can see 32% growth rate. That's the blue line there. That growth rate over 30% not something that a lot of companies can do. compounding revenue over a long period of time. The one little bit of a red flag here, and this is where Shopify has not met expectations this quarter, is gross profit margin.
That gross profit margin 47.6%. That's down from a year ago and down from 2 years ago. So that margin is not moving in the right direction, but the offset of that is the company's getting much more efficient. Operating margin a year ago was 12.1%. This quarter it was 15.2%. So that's how you get Shopify increasing their operating profit and their free cash flow much faster than their growing revenue and their growing revenue at a 30 plus% growth rate.
So compounding in all the right places. That's the margin expansion that we want to see as investors. That's how you earn the kind of high multiple that Shopify has typically had. So what's next for Shopify? Well, management expects fourth quarter revenue to grow in about that 30% range. They expect gross profit to grow about 20%.
So, we're going to still see the gross profit pressure that I mentioned earlier. Those gross margins going are going to likely continue to come down. Operating expenses expected to go up nearly 30% and free cash flow margin consistent with the quarter a year ago at about 19%. So, the positive here is Shopify is expecting to continue to grow really rapidly, but there is a little bit of pressure on margins and on the bottom line on free cash flow.
So, not maybe not quite the operating leverage that we saw in the third quarter. So, where does Shopify sit for investors today? Well, free cash flow is really strong at $2.7 billion over the past four quarters. But remember, this is a company with an with a $180 billion market cap. So, it's hard to argue that this is a cheap stock today.
If this is a company that has been sitting on your watch list, you've been looking for a buying opportunity, I don't think this is necessarily a bad moment for Shopify. But remember, this is the kind of company that if the economy turns south, if tech stock starts to start to sell off, a lot of these high value companies, high multiple companies could get hit first.
After 2021, 2022, when things were really hot in the market, Shopify stock fell about 80%. Now, not saying that that's going to happen in the future, but the multiple is hardly a no-brainer buy with enterprise value to sales at about 13 today. Even on a forward basis, the price to free cash flow is about 60.
So, not a no-brainer price, but if Shopify shares continue to pull back, this is one of the bestrun companies in the world. Not a lot of companies can grow and compound their revenue at 30% year after year the way that Shopify does. And I think when you look at that agentic future, the company is really, really well positioned.
I'm not a buyer here today because I think the stock is still priced for perfection. But let us know what you think in the comments section below. Don't forget to subscribe to the MLY Fools channel here on YouTube. Thanks for watching everybody. We'll see you here next.
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