저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
요약 보기
Yardeni는 상승장이 아직 남아 있다고 본다. 주도 동력은 공포가 아닌 실적 모멘텀(FEMO)이며, 생산성 향상이 성장·저인플레·실질임금 상승을 이끈다고 주장한다. 과거 저점 매수 기회가 여러 번 있었다는 점을 근거로 들고, 지정학·부채 리스크는 역사적으로 매수 기회였다고 강조한다. 다만 진행자는 리스크 프리미엄과 콜옵션 거품 가능성을 제기했다.
다듬은 글
Yardeni is betting that earnings momentum and economic resilience can overpower every valuation and macro concern still hanging over this market. That confidence may sound visionary, but it also reflects the exact kind of consensus-defying optimism that can turn a powerful rally into a dangerous melt-up.
and 10,000 by the end of the decade. Tom Lee recently has said best couple of years that we're going to see in the stock market in his lifetime or something similar to that. You've got some Yeah. You've got some non-obvious reasons to make that case, don't you? Well, I think it's actually the obvious reason and that is it's earnings, yeah.
You know, I've I've been recently talking about FOMO versus FEMO. FEMO's fabulous earnings momentum and that's really what's been driving the market, not FOMO, not fear of missing out. So, it it it it almost makes sense. I guess when I said not obvious, I meant given what's right in in your face that causes people to think, "Oh my god, stocks are you know, all the things that make you the the people that build the consistently build the wall of worry that the market climbs."
Yeah, I I think what's been largely missed is the resilience of the economy. You know, the the economy's kind of like Rodney Dangerfield. It's it's been getting no respect. we got to figure out what is responsible for that. We know it's the greatest economy in the world. It it always will, always always has been, but then what else is it?
AI? Is it Is it deregulation? I think you know, it was but in 2024 that everybody was talking about American exceptionalism and then that kind of the whole thesis kind of fizzled out in 2025, but we have amazing capital markets. There's a tremendous amount of capital available for innovation that's driving the technology revolution.
The technology revolution is driving productivity and productivity is fairy dust. Makes everything better in the economy, better growth, lower inflation, real wages go up, and profits are great. I mean, in you you you look at the rest of the world, and all you got to do is look at the leading companies in any industry, especially technology.
Over over the last even 20 years, even back to Google or I mean, even anything in involving the internet, and then you got Amazon, then you got social media, and you got meta, and and now you've got AI. I, it's all happening. Biotechnology or or pharmaceuticals. It's all here. Yeah, it's all here. Why?
Well, I think this is still a very entrepreneurial society. There's a lot of people that are constantly looking at opportunities to come up with better products, better services, cheaper, better. And what we do creative destruction better than anybody else, you know, famous economist and way back when by the name of Joseph Schumpeter said that, you know, that's what entrepreneurs do is they
He said a lot of smart things, especially about the permanent leisure class, which which it ends up being so well off that they think they don't need capitalism and don't realize capitalism is is is where it came from. There are people pointing out that in terms of risk premiums that or premia that we're at a point similar even to the to the bubble, though.
There are There is froth, there is call buying, there there may be some disconnect between fundamentals and the lofty level of the we've already had a few crashes, right? I mean, we had a a crash at the beginning of last year. It turned out to be a great buying opportunity. We had a crash in March, turned out to be a great buying opportunity.
I mean, the market one was in the the pandemic at 2,300 on the S&P. Yeah, I mean, that was an amazing buying opportunity. So, I I think there's a tremendous amount of wealth in the US on a global basis that wants to invest in the US, and I think there's um our is what's driving it all. The the the thing that we're the unknown that we don't know that the the unknown unknown.
That's a crazy term, but what what is it? What what's looming that could cause a big problem is Uh well, I I think it's on the geopolitical Nuclear holocaust is always there. Yeah, I mean unknowns unknowns are unknown, uh but uh known unknowns uh we know about the possibility that China will uh invade Taiwan.
I mean, that that would be a calamity, but it would be a calamity for China, too, which is why uh $150 oil might be a calamity or or not not so Well, I I think oil prices are going to be coming down. Yeah, I Look, geopolitical crises have traditionally been almost always been great buying opportunities.
Market figured it out this time around as well. The the shooting was still going on right through the end of March of March 30th, we made a low and it's been up up and away since then. I'm just trying to think of a a perfect storm of uh issues with China, issues that bog down in Iran, higher interest rates, $40 trillion of debt.
I can paint a scary picture if if you want. debt story has been around for a long long time. I've been doing this for over 45 years, and uh the the the perceptions that uh debt is going to create a calamity just hasn't happened. One of these days uh it's it's conceivable, but uh you know, the reality is um the the the the Treasury and the Fed can always finagle things.
That's That's what happened in 2023. They the Treasury said, "Okay, we'll issue more bills and we won't increase the amount of bond issuance." Um now, we've um uh you know, I'll I'll worry about the debt when the when my friends with the bond vigilantes The Fed might be raising rates. Well, look, the thing is as long as somebody's buying the debt, that's also the flip side of debt is wealth.
You know, I mean, a a lot of people that are very concerned about debt are saying, "I don't want to be in the stock market. And then you ask them, "So, where do you want to be?" They say, "I want to be in 10-year Treasuries." I said, "How does that make any sense?"
댓글 0