저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
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신흥시장 투자 전문가 마크 모비우스는 신흥시장의 수익성과 지배구조(ESG) 개선 흐름이 투자 기회라고 주장하며, 이를 위해 자신의 새 운용사 Mobius Capital Partners를 설립했다고 밝힘. 신흥시장 성장률은 선진국의 약 두 배이며, 연초 이후 신흥시장 지수가 FTSE 대비 8~9% 높은 성과를 보이고 있다고 설명. 중국 정부가 국유기업의 지배구조와 공시 개선을 요구하는 등 정책 방향이 긍정적이라고 평가. 인도는 성장률이 중국을 넘어섰고 시장이 성숙·유동성 증가 중이며, 향후 수년간 노동 인구 유입이 큰 기회라고 전망. 미국 시장은 밸류에이션이 높아 고점 우려가 있으며, 미국이 폭락하면 신흥시장도 영향을 받지만 보통 일시적이라고 봄. 연준이 올해 3차례 금리 인상을 할 것으로 예상되며, 금리 인상의 신흥시장 영향은 사례마다 달라 일관된 상관관계는 없다고 주장. 달러 약세와 신흥국 강세가 신흥시장 달러 수익률에 도움이 된다고 봄. 과거 1988년 Antofagasta 투자 사례를 들며 지배구조 우수 기업의 성공 사례로 소개. 특정 한국 종목·지수에 대한 언급은 없음.
다듬은 글
now little earlier I was talking about retirement with the head of the Peru but though we no talk of it with my next guest in fact after 31 years at Franklin Templeton including his executive chairman overseeing 50 billion dollars worth of funds and at the age of 81 he's just got a new job but it's still investing in emerging and frontier markets I speak of course of the legendary asset manager dr.
martin mobius whose new firm Mobius Capital Partners will be launching funds soon so why are you setting up on your own after all this time well I see a tremendous opportunity to focus on ESG environmental governance social aspects of investing and because we've been confronted with that in emerging markets from the very beginning and now as an opportunity to break out and do something new and more intense in that area it's interesting you know you were talking about antha Gaston in the program that was one of our first investments in emerging markets in 1988 it was a way to get it to Chile and it's very interesting the way that has involved a good example of a company that did a terrific job in governance they were very open and they expanded very nicely but it's interesting though that you're enlightened on environmental social and governance issues I mean one doesn't often associate that with emerging markets talks exactly if very often you have real problems in all those issues and that's the reason why we think there's an opportunity because there's a growing awareness in emerging markets about this and in fact you're seeing governments moving in the right direction good example is China the Chinese government has come out and said look to their state-owned enterprises you've got to improve your governance you've got to have better disclosure and therefore hopefully increase your profitability it's amazing in some ways we're still talking about that given the very obvious links between poor investment performance and bad corporate governance exactly and this is where we've learned the hard way I mean there are many cases we've lived through in all the years we've been in emerging markets where you know bad corporate governance resulted in a real disaster where the disclosure was not there and we were confronted with real problems but presumably you're doing this as well because you've identified already need among clients who want to get exposure to these markets but also want to be seen to be investing in the right things exactly so you have a situation now where there's a growing awareness of the profitability of emerging markets emerging market countries are growing at double the rate of the developed countries and of course if you look at the performance particularly recently I mean just comparing the footsie to emerging markets index puts you down emerging markets up by eight and nine percent since the beginning of the year so there's a tremendous opportunity to have good investment returns but we also realize that if we want to even improve those returns we've got to do something about governance and about these are the issues we mentioned returns I mean emerging markets last year returns something like 37 percent I mean feels a bit low for the market now you're absolutely right it's something we have to watch very very carefully and of course if you look at the u.s.
US does look top you know in terms of valuation in terms of many many factors the market is high and of course if the US market crashes emerging markets will be affected as well but this effect by the way is usually quite temporary and of course we're moving into a right tightening environment the Federal Reserve probably gonna raise rates three times this year historically speaking that hasn't been great for emerging markets either well you know any interesting we did some studies on that we found that yes in some cases higher Fed rates was bad for emerging markets but there have been other cases where higher federates resulted in a higher performance for emerging markets so there's no clear predictable distinction correlation with these factors so hopefully you know this rate rise will be very gradual which is way it looks at this stage of the game and interesting enough the US dollar are getting weaker and emerging market countries getting stronger also helps emerging markets performance in dollar terms I mentioned China has been one market where governance is being strengthened where are the other markets that you like the look of right India India of course is a huge market potential growth as well India is actually growing faster than China now and the Indian market is now getting much more mature much more liquid and a lot of things are happening on the governance arena that is quite good Mike wells from Peru was telling me earlier today million people are going to enter of working age again I went to the workforce every month in age rate the next few years I mean show you the stunning opportunities are available it's quite incredible it's a grueling job though yours going you know visiting these markets wearing out shoe leather why are you still doing it at 81 well I love it I love travel I love meeting new people being in new places in fact I just returned from Chile from Santiago Chile and again it was a great experience for me because I see the changes that have taken place over these years I mean when we first invested in active aster I was with the chairman mr.
Lukic in the town of Antofagasta and it was a derelict town there was a brewery behind us we were walking in the city and it was a brewery we noticed behind us that was as well derelict and he said I'm gonna buy that brewery and make it a success and that's exactly what he did one of the richest countries in the world of course exactly gonna leave it there I'm afraid maybe it's great pleasure to have you on the show hope you come back again thank you Anna
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