저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
비트코인 가격 급락을 사전에 예측할 수 있었다는 주장과 함께 후행지표 대신 주문 흐름(order flow)을 봐야 한다는 내용. 주제 1: 후행지표 vs 선행지표 진행자는 이동평균 등 후행지표를 자동차 백미러에 비유하며, 주문 흐름 같은 선행지표가 방향 전환을 미리 알려준다고 주장함. 주제 2: 거래량·주문 흐름 분석 방법 Tensor Charts 플랫폼으로 캔들을 끄고 가격대별 거래량을 확인하는 방식을 시연함. 최근 60분간 매수·매도 체결량 비율(카운터 비율)을 보면 매수세가 소진된 것을 알 수 있다고 설명함. 주제 3: 가격 진공(price vacuum)과 하락 전망 매수 거래량은 강했으나 가격이 더 오르지 않았고, 이후 거래량이 줄어든 상태에서 가격이 올라 호가 얇은 '진공' 구간이 생겼다고 봄. 매수자가 소진되어 하락 추세로 갈 것이라고 주장함. 주제 4: 결론 가격·거래량·참여자 행동을 보면 예측이 가능하며 이를 하면 이긴다는 취지로 마무리함. 특정 목표가나 기간은 제시되지 않음. 출연자 전망: 비트코인 단기 하락 전망(구체 목표가·기간 없음).
다듬은 글
I want to talk about what has happened with the price of Bitcoin within the last few hours, and how you could have predicted it. A lot of people use lagging indicators. I compare that to looking at the rearview mirror of your car to figure out which direction the car is going. But there are actually leading indicators that could have told you Bitcoin's price was going to drop.
If you really want an edge in your trading, you want to look at the signals that tell you there's a bend in the road. There's a signpost that says the road is going to turn, or that it's a straight road, or whatever is going to happen. There are signposts in the market that say this is what's going to happen, and those signposts are really the market participants. If you understand order flow, if you understand what the market is doing, you can predict what's going to happen with price.
There will be moments when you can see that there is absolutely no way price can go up now. And when you have that much certainty, that's when you should be placing a trade. Without talking about it too much, let's go on-screen.
If we're just looking at a normal chart, I don't get much information. I get the open, high, low, and close of what's happening with price, and I can see volume down here. This volume chart is actually pretty good because it shows me how there was volume, but it was a lot less than before. So we can see a real divergence going on here. Interestingly, what you can do with TensorCharts over here is turn up the opacity. Once I do that, I can turn off the candlesticks, which are on by default in the charting package, and now I can actually see what's going on in the market with volume. I can see volume at certain prices. I can see the volume was a lot stronger up here.
The other thing I can do is set a window over the last 60 minutes to see how strong the buy volume was and how strong the sell volume was. If I click on this little chart icon, it gives me something called the counter ratio. That ratio shows me how many buyers there are compared to sellers. What I'm looking for in this example is a contradiction. I can see a very strong buying multiple over here, with far more buyers than sellers in the market. The candlesticks shot right up, and there's a lot of buy volume over here, but it didn't push price any higher.
Interestingly, when you get back over to here, you can see there's less volume, less buy volume, and the price went even higher. So it basically went into a price vacuum. The market had been very, very quiet. In the overall context of the market, it's now very clear that the buyers have been exhausted. The normal buyers in this market are gone, unless someone new comes in and, for whatever reason, wants to buy a ton of Bitcoin, and even then they would eat up even more if they asked. The market is pretty thin, and a vacuum has been created.
So what happens next? You could have predicted it: price just goes down. The whole point is to show you that you have a real edge over other traders if you look at the order book, at the concentration of buyers versus sellers, to predict a swing before it happens. We can see that price was exhausted over here, that the buyers were exhausted, and of course it went into a downtrend. Look at price, look at volume, look at the market participants and what they are doing. If you can do that, you win.
I want to give a special thank you to David from TensorCharts for developing this platform. Until the next video, I really hope you got some value out of this. If you have any questions, definitely leave them in the comments. Take care, and we'll talk soon.
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