저자: TomLee · 외국인
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결론: 2021년 8월 증시 강세 전망, 특히 델타변이 정점 통과 후 회복주에 기회가 있다는 주장. [시장 전망] 코스피/S&P500은 2020년 3월 저점 이후 과거 대공황·2002·1987 사례 대비 회복 구간에 있으며, 8월 말 S&P500 2800까지 갈 수 있다고 주장. 현 상황을 강세장이라 부르기엔 이르다는 반론도 존재. [금리·델타변이] 델타변이 확산은 인도·영국 사례상 약 45~50일 후 정점을 찍을 것으로 보며 8월 중순 정점 예상. 이후 시장 공포 완화 기대. 미국채 10년물 금리는 100주 이동평균(약 1.27%) 부근에서 반등해 금리 상승 전환 가능성을 언급. 금리 상승은 경기 개선 신호로 해석. [연준] 9월 데이터는 10월 발표, 연준 회의는 11월로 연준 이벤트 리스크는 늦가을 이후로 봄. 최근 회의에 매파적 요소가 있었으나 비둘기파 기울기가 주식에 우호적이라고 봄. [종목] 카니발 크루즈: 2021년 초 대비 상승률이 25% 미만인 회복주로, 현재 약 30% 하락 상태. 시가총액 약 250억 달러. 매수 관심 표명. 특정 종목(Callaway 골프 추정): 5월 실적 서프라이즈(600%) 언급, 8월 실적 발표 기대. 화자는 옵션 매수 포지션 보유를 언급하며 한 달 내 10~20% 상승 기대. 윈 리조트(Wynn): 2020년 3월 이후 약 200% 상승 후 델타 우려로 최근 약 22% 하락. 회복 가능성 언급. [출연자 전망 요약] 시장 회복 조건으로 델타 정점 통과, 금리 반등, 연준 비둘기파 기조 세 가지를 제시. 영상 후반은 스폰서(GSX 코인) 홍보 및 유료 커뮤니티 광고 포함. [리스크] 경기 불확실성, 델타 확산 지속 가능성, 연준 정책 변화 가능성 존재.
다듬은 글
ladies and gentlemen three stocks that can absolutely blow your portfolio this month of august we will talk about that and prologue to this three stocks i will give you the base case okay why i chose this restocks because two of them are highly related to what will follow in the next two minutes okay on the market there's a lot of analysts but some are a little bit better some are a little bit worse my favorite people on the market that you can see on cnbc on other type of media are those that are really fact-based okay they are looking into the facts they putting all of the noise away and just focusing on what is really really great what really moves the market and how maybe seemingly bad situations are not though bad in the end of the day okay tom lee is one of those he predicted that the bitcoin will be higher than 25 000.
he predicted the uh s p will go higher and higher and higher every single month okay he went on cnbc every single month and said you know i believe because of this and this the s p 500 is going higher and it went higher but the most impressive thing for my personal opinion is that he called the bottom in march 2020 yes have a look in this video is this legit yes um i'd say that the way your viewers might want to question this is when did rallies fail in 09 02 and 87 and that is how much of the loss did they recover before it became a double bottom that level in the s p today would be 24.75 if this was 2009 so you never had more than a 25 retrace or if it's 87 and 02 it's a 38 retrace which is 2600 so the s p is beyond what would normally be hey this is the ceiling and you're gonna it's an inner bottom you're gonna retest a low and i think the key number is 27.93 because that means you've recovered half of your losses if we get to 2793 that's typically telling us we're deep into a bull market recovery and um you know something that i think we've been writing about is like you know these declines tend to be symmetric that's something that people think this will take a long time to resolve the faster you fall the faster your recovery historically you recover half your losses in half the time you fell so this means that we could see 2800 before the end of the month i know but it seems absurd tom frankly to be using the words bull market in the current environment just just because the numbers in in new york and maybe elsewhere too seem to be improving a bit there's a long way to go i feel uncomfortable almost using those words uh scott i agree it makes no sense um but i would say that i'm not going to try to tell the market what to do i'm going to try to maybe understand what the market's doing and there's three reasons this could be happening one is the crisis could be ending faster than expected um remember the white house originally thought two million mortality it looks like we're going to undershoot that the second is the consumer could come back huge which is why the retailers and the industrials are bouncing remember if you look at low market value per employee stocks they're the ones that got hit the hardest but they're the ones that will benefit from labor supply and the third is that you know policy makers acted quickly so if one of those three is true maybe this is why the market is staging a strong recovery so as you can see he predicted pretty much exactly the bottom of the market in march 2020 which then gave you the opportunity to really gain four 500 with stocks like tesla or other things okay so this guy knows a thing about two and he actually said the following just two days ago and here have a look what he is saying about the month of august we've seen the charts of the uk the case is peaking we've seen sort of a similar chart if you overlay that with i think it's missouri in terms of its caseload and so those those things are very promising in terms of data but in terms of your call that the 10-year yield will actually emerge from this critical juncture and go higher is that based on anything or is that just your belief that because it sounds like this whole bullish call for august is predicated on these two things and one of those things is is sort of just a hold your finger to the wind kind of call oh that's right i mean uh you know markets are unpredictable and interest rates are even more unpredictable so again i would i would probably be more appropriately saying i think the probabilities of rates perform rising more than consensus expects is what we think will happen in august if the delta variant starts to roll over so i think interest rates and cases and markets are all kind of connected here but really over the next couple weeks we think that plays out favorably for stocks hey tom i'm obviously concerned like everyone socially about delta variance i'm not worried about the long-term impact on the economy frankly i'm a lot more worried about the fed's role in the market so as you look to the next couple months because it's all about the fed and and you know lal brainerd was out there late last week and i think her voice is probably as loud as it's ever been relative to her place in the fed about you know the fed's got to wait for at least september data um that probably doesn't come out till october there's not a fed meeting until november i mean doesn't this give you kind of the view that the fed is not in your face until probably late october november uh yeah tim that's a great point i mean markets really should worry about the fed because the fed is one of the most important influences on the market and while last week's meeting might have had some hawkish surprises ultimately the fed can't you know the fed has no crystal ball greater than the markets and if you can't see around the delta variant and the hesitation it's creating among corporates and even opec i'm not sure that anyone should say the fed is suddenly more hawkish i think it does give the fed a dovish tilt and as you know dovish tilt is great for stocks so as you can see he actually looking into two things first is the uncertainty that can in the end give a relief for the market of the delta variant so and actually he is going into following okay this was posted by his research company fund strat and here you can see that the delta actually surged went off of the peak in about 50 days in india then the same was observed in the uk for about 45 days okay and then it peaked and went uh downwards and the same is expected to be obviously done in us as well so here you can see expected peak will be 14 of august so this will be a relief for the market okay so second thing that he's talking about is the bond yield as you know we are falling quite heavily over the last couple of weeks which always gives us indication that the economy is not that well okay but he believes that there's actually an um important part that we are crossing right now as you can see the yellow here is the 100 week trading average and he believes that we should bounce off of that we are there currently at around 1.27 the current one is about uh 1.17 so as you can see very very close here and he believes that around that we will bounce off and we'll see higher bond yields which is then a sign of a great economy or greater becoming economy and therefore higher stock prices so this is the best scenario okay that he is envisioning in the corn market condition this means that there are very very interesting recovering trades possible for this year okay because you know those are the most let's say pushed back stocks when there's delta variant you know fear on the market is coveted not over will there will be more and more coming uh what about travel and here we go to the top three but before we dive into that let's go into the most interesting crypto that i ever talked about as you know i'm partnering with gsx because those guys are really working hard okay if you haven't heard about the gsx it is a brainchild of apollo fintech which is a established blockchain company they did already projects for governments they issued a different kind of currencies very experienced team very hard working very very smart in their new upcoming products and activities that they you know trying to keep on the gsx community quite active okay and they are coming out with uh very very much interesting things but if you haven't heard about gsx let me quickly explain it to you in 10 seconds basically it's a growth coin and stable coin combined on the one side it will grow because the backing assets gold and gold mines that the ceo stephen is contracting for gsx and apollo fintech is actually backing the currency so you have like a basically a gold standard that also is very very tremendous important for bear markets okay so you can see here where the beauty is there okay as more assets are added and you know we are talking here about the billions of assets that they want to have the assets backed the gsx currency so much that the essence will represent a one dollar gsx coin price okay which is a huge opportunity if you consider that the gsx price is currently four dollars so really really undervalued if you see the whole road map okay but that to the side they actually came out with you know bonus on your uh purchase of gsx they also came out with competitions where you can you know win uh lamborghinis uh when you purchase more and more gsx and now they came out with a game yes with a game where you can actually play and you will get real gold when you collect the same in the game the game is like beautifully made you know everything that gsx is touching is high quality so what you are waiting for go with the link into the description and purchase some gsx it is as easy as ordering a pizza i'm promising you that and once you did let's go back to the vlog so the first stock out of three is carnival cruise why do i like carnival cruise that much first you know i talked about this stock when it still was at ten dollars okay i said like this is a great rebound stock during the health crisis i said you know go and buy carnival you would have now 100 more money because you know it's just like a great company the saudis actually have put a lot a lot of money into this company plus i think it's after all of the cruisers maybe one of the best because of the management team because of the fleet and so on and so forth so let's have a look what happened since delta was a thing in the world and as you can see since about beginning of june the stock lost 30 percent 30 percent and tom lee said something very interesting he said i believe in higher prices and and the relief in the markets after delta which then means okay he buys everything that haven't done 25 or more in the year-to-date performance and let's have a look what carnival cruz actually did okay so let's rewind to about first of january and here we go fourth of january was the first trading day of 2021 and the stock did four percent okay four percent so he says the you know let's say the cap for him is what made 25 or more he's not touching because he thinks that you know there's all the potential gone but those companies that did you know less than 25 and our recovery stocks are a huge buy and undervalued so i think this is a great company to hold if you are interested i think that they will do pretty well after all the relief and the scarcity and everything is done from the delta variant so this is a very very nice company 25 billion dollars in market cap very interesting stay tuned for the next one so the next one is actually a stock that i will made an option trade but i really think that this company is really great for the months of august because if the earnings which is a little bit confusing because nobody knows when the earnings will be there there is some you know yahoo finance it's saying it's in two days then you know uh the company or earnings whispers saying it's in the ninth of august and so on and so forth so i believe in the next couple of days the earnings will come which then means that the stock can go higher let's have a look what they actually have done over the last earnings okay the last earnings were around of um if i'm not mistaking 9th of may okay so let's have a look if we can find it here real quick so here 9th of may they came out with an earning surprise which was 600 percent okay so as you can see the wall street seems to underestimate uh callaway here in a big way which i'm also betting with my option trade so which means in the effect of actions if you buy the stock for the months of august i believe that you can maybe get out with 10 20 just in one month let's see if this really happens because uh you know as you can see over the last couple of uh two months we are on the downhill spine but good news can change that from one day to another and again what they have done after their last earnings ninth of uh may till the 11th of may we got up 5.4 and then even a couple of days later 17 and a couple of days later even 24 okay if this happens again and you can see that you know it could go higher if you see the chart a little bit here then i'm pretty much uh interested okay so this is number two of three let's go to the number three stock that i believe can explode in august before we go into number three i want to make sure that you are informed that i have two products okay you can join the community here and pay monthly and get discord access where i'm posting exactly this kind of trades or you can get the master class which you get 35 of with space 35 where i'm explaining everything okay how i become you know financially and dependent with stock investing what i'm looking into stocks how i found out about tesla before anyone else and made thousands percent of profit and uh you know if you want to just have lifetime access to my discord this is the product for you so if you just got money and want to invest in yourself to become better and be part of the community check it out now the last stock is also a recovery stock okay and it's actually coming from the us and it actually is one of my favorite buildings to be inside i went there the wind casino in las vegas beautiful i mean you know i get goosebumps when i'm just talking about this building it has the best parties it has the best design it's so beautiful it was made by steve wynn one of the biggest guys in las vegas and finally you know the stock went absolutely ludicrous over the last couple of months since march 2020 here you can see almost 200 percent and since the delta variant you know they lost a little bit right i mean you can see you know in the last couple of two months they lost about 22 with the fear that you know delta variant coming up you know the hospitalization and so on but this can be according to tommy the past and therefore i'm thinking that this is a very quality business if you are investing into casinos i really like to invest into those beautiful casinos because think about it if the prices are a little bit higher for win win can go down with the prices and then you are thinking well i paid for the let's say mgm which is like a medium luxury building or i pay the same that i paid last year for mgm and go to the win so i definitely go to the win right if i have the money so you know i think that this is always quality is one of the best business plans you
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