저자: Kevin · 외국인
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나스닥100 상반기 강세 후 하반기 긍정적 흐름 전망. 블룸버그 기준 상반기 S&P500 10%+ 상승 시 하반기 평균 추가 약 10% 상승 사례 제시. 단기적으로 3~5% 조정 가능성과 옵션 과열(콜옵션 거래 급증, 풋콜비율 13개월 저점) 리스크를 경고. 태양광 섹터는 과매도/과열 후 평균회귀 가능성 언급. 채권 금리는 연준 터미널 금리 약 5.29% 가격 반영, 인플레이션 기대는 안정적이라고 진단. 개인적으로 '올인' 입장 밝힘.
다듬은 글
so the NASDAQ 100 is set to enter the best opening six months to a year ever and a lot of folks are now wondering what does this mean going forward for the rest of the year and this is where the Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg have two separate pieces talking exactly about what our expectations might be going forward for the next well six months and let me just say this if you're a bear don't hold your breath you actually might really want to take a look at these and uh question your choices although who knows anything can happen these are just two articles uh in the wind and we'll see what kind of evidence they have to judge their credibility all right the first one where the stock market is headed after a wild first half and they've got five charts so let's see what we got here optimism a that the U.S Central Bank the FED is approaching the end of its tightening has helped transform the technology heavy gauge the NASDAQ from the 2022s market underachiever to the early Champion with a surge of 36 percent the Resurgence has defied Skeptics coming in the face of bank failures recession fears and the highest borrowing costs since 2007 but investors stuck with stocks well oral coming back to stocks in the sign of all these problems all right whatever so what do we got so this is uh here's the uh index here the NASDAQ 100 NASDAQ 100 has only existed for a little over 30 years this is It's a best first half ever uh they we've only been close about three other times and all of those times were in the first half for the 1990s you have this argument now that the Bulls are back in control but this is also something to be taken with a slight grain of salt because back in 2000 to 2003 we had the s p rally 20 off of its lows twice only to create new lower lows the next chart that uh the Bloomberg folks want to show us is that the S P 500 has eclipsed Wall Street strategists year-end projections that is also as some would say a red flag as we often get a mean reversion consider in covid right here we have this massive mean reversion uh that really took the shape of a v-shaped recovery you could see the red line is really what analyst expectations are so Market expectations are for an end of the year price Target those are sitting somewhere around 4 100 on the S P 500 right now you're already at about 4 400 so you've got some downside risk over here uh then you've also got the largest laggers so far this year consumer discretionaries I uh uh sorry uh last last year's biggest laggards yeah it was looking at them like wait a minute I'm reading this backwards my fault last year's biggest failures are this year's leaders it's obviously led by Tech communication Services consumer discretionaries these were the ones that failed last year they're doing well this year uh I actually expected Consumer Staples to do worse than this they're only at negative one percent so they're basically flat what's actually gotten hit a lot harder so far this year has been energy now I personally think that the mispositioning that we saw for technology in the first six months of this year is the same kind of mispositioning that you're seeing created in the Solar sector right now now keep in mind that's just a part of the energy sector but I really believe that the energy sector specifically solar has been completely forgotten it used to be a hot sexy trade everybody's like ah I gotta invest in solar I need my solar ETFs and I gotta get my exposure to panels and panel manufacturers and uh you know even like array which manufactures the mounts for panels or inverter companies solar Edge and face whatever even Generac got in the The Craze with with batteries that bubble popped hard but I think it's overextended to the point where there probably will be some mean reversion just like what we saw in Tech at the beginning of this year it'll come for solar I'm pretty well convinced especially since on Friday we believe based on some just initial research that we're doing solar will probably exceed earnings expectations this year and still grow in the neighborhood of 30 and 40 percent which is pretty remarkable we were talking about some of that research in the course member live on Friday remember you could get lifetime access to that link down below use click that first link there go to meet kevin.com make sure to join before Friday as we've got a large and massive uh price increase a coupon expiration happening on Friday as we release more lectures this weekend for all of the courses uh stocks that Psych the zero to millionaire real estate and more for the productivity and AI course which is very exciting anyway back to this so what does this mean going forward well a strong first half historically bodes well for investors says Bloomberg the S P 500 returns or here are the S P 500 returns when The Benchmark climbs at least 10 percent through June so think about that when you go from jn1 to June and the S P 500 goes up at least 10 percent what tends to happen on average well what you tend to get is well spoiler alert it's an extra 10 there they broke this out part by other years over here and the average is an extra 10 I don't know why they didn't write that average on this version of this but it's a good thing usually it votes to oh uh yeah it leads to another 10 in the second half which is remarkable knock on wood but on average if the first half is really good the next six months tend to be very good according to Bloomberg now this is mind-blowing but you know how everybody was complaining about the yeah liquidity crisis like oh liquidity isn't going to be here and socks are going to crash and nobody believed me that repos were just gonna fall to help refill the TGA the treasury general account that's exactly what happened well in addition to talking about uh two Bowl pieces uh that we're going to talk about in in this segment look at this piece out now stocks have upside potential while excess liquidity is now Rising yes yes I'll hide myself here for a moment now all of a sudden the mainstream narrative has flip-flopped it's gone from oh my God this should be a lack of liquidity too oh liquidity is rising this is going to be great for stocks in the second half make up your minds mainstream uh but then there there's also another indicator which we used about three to four months ago last it was really quite interesting uh it's this indicator that pretty rarely fires we last covered uh it's this indicator called the copoc indicator we last cover this about three to four months ago and it fired off a signal that maybe now is turning into buy time and that indicator is right here again and it is reiterating through an adapted version yet another Buy Signal what is the Wall Street Journal have to say about this because they also have a piece take a look at the next title of this one this one's kind of exciting too this bull market is just getting started Traders bet everyone wants a piece of the new bull market Traders are piling into bullish options bets that would profit if the recent stock rally continues and so this is where I would also just like to throw in a little bit of a uh two-sided heads up one heads up is that we're probably in a position where a pullback would be healthy some form of modest pullback would be very healthy and expected at this point that's a big deal so think about that because if you have a pullback which usually you do the S P 500 usually sells off by three to five percent somewhere around every two to three months and I'm not just making that up in fact Deutsche Bank had a piece literally saying that here is that piece I like to show you my sources uh right here modest sell-off now arguably overdue the S P 500 sells off by three to five percent on average every two to three months now in over three months since the last meeting full sell-off in March the duration rally is in the 85th percentile and a sell-off is now arguably overdue okay so what does that mean well what that means is if you're betting on options right now one thing to keep in mind is especially if you have near-term dated options you're probably going to paper hand them in a near-term sell-off so there's a high risk high risk of paper handing if you hold short-term options uh going into a potential near-term pullback okay keep that in mind now another thing for options is volatility right now epically low now that's great now you already know this if you've taken the stocks and site course but what do you want to do with volatility when it comes to options surprise surprise it's the same thing uh okay it's Buy Low sell High in other words you generally do want to buy options when volatility is very low every time you buy options you should be looking at stocks these are some of the new lectures that we're going to have coming out a new additional lectures since we already cover a lot of this but we'll have more lectures on this coming out this weekend but one of the reasons you want to buy with low volatility is because your options premiums on call options are a lot lower or even put options they're a lot lower than when volatility is high it's because the black shoals model for pricing options it's just the way it is volatility is one of the factors of pricing and you generally want to sell when volatility is high so what you want to do is make sure you are evaluating what the volatility levels are of stocks that you're considering investing in or not investing in right now and so you should be looking every time you think about doing options at a particular stock and say okay what's my volatility band over the last 30 days how does that compare to the last year and am I buying it a relative high or a relative low and that'll help you understand whether you should buy or sell the point of that is if we do have some sort of near-term pullback and there is potentially any kind of short-term volatility increase there could be some potential benefits and risk depending on what option which options you align with I guess the warning here is be prepared for some form of shorter term pullback before we get more rallying now in my opinion that actually tends to leave people trading a lot more than they buy and hold that is when you expose yourself to options which is what the Wall Street Journal is talking about here is that people are making many more bets on calls put call the put call ratio which is the level of puts two calls puts on top is now at a 13-month low 13-month low implies people are finally really going back to shopping calls shorting the market less via puts and as we see here Traders are piling into bullish options bets specially driven by Ai and Tech you should be careful if you are one of those Traders making those bets because you're more likely to trade problem with trading is that you're not going to huddle so you're exposing yourself to those taxes and if you get flushed out and then you get the real rally you might end up missing the vote that's some of the frustrating that's probably the most frustrating part about options now you could play that you can play you know certain strategies for options so if you really know what you're doing you can play it just well just obviously be aware of some of these risks uh this uh this particular Wall Street Journal article is is a little bit more surface level when it comes to options but take a look at this chip stocks average daily call options volume we're at the highest level that we've seen since basically the beginning of uh the pandemic and we even beat the call option frenzy of 2021 in chip stocks which is a pretty pretty remarkable that we've beat that for really the last two months in a row here and then if you look at this particular chart here call options volume tied to the S P 500 I mean even these in 2023 starting actually in about November of 2022 which was a perfect time to do it you've seen a call option bets really Skyrocket so pretty impressive uh but also a a risk factor nearer term I think that's some of the uh the beauty about owning maybe in the money options or longer term or um just the shares is is you don't have to worry so much about those individual fluctuations mostly because I you know I think some folks are under the impression of oh you buy an option like 45 days out which is usually a pretty profitable time to buy options and your goal is to try to make a lot of your money within the first 21 days usually if you're buying but anyway you you know if you go through a week of red or two weeks of red and you're now two weeks into your uh uh 45 day options you know you're at 30 you've got another nine days for your strategy to play out after weekends it's like oh start getting a little nervous so in other words be careful now the good news is longer term these pieces are pretty bullish and we are seeing inflows that are pretty strong into the market I mean go back to Deutsche Bank for a moment and consider this right now you have a discretionary investor positioning uh slightly down especially as we've seen some money taken out of uh exchange traded funds in Tech over this last week following 13 weeks of inflows what do we have we're actually only about a quarter of a a quarter one standard deviation above the average for positioning right now so so we've seen this shift recently sort of like a z-score measure ignore all that crap point is we we starting to Trend back to being more bullish on the market going towards overweight most investment advisors are actually still underweight now that's a separation right this right here talks about Investors themselves retail and then institutional investors and your fund managers stole about 32 percent underweight the market which is really incredible so something else to keep in mind now uh as far as markets overall in Deutsche bank's opinion they think that uh most of the discretionary positioning right now so retail investors choosing where to be with their stocks most of it is geared towards the reality of a soft Landing so if we don't get a soft Landing this is going to hurt but I think a lot of us are quite well aware of that it also seems like we'll have some form of a muted reaction from this Mutiny in Russia and bigger catalysts will really be how long is higher for longer although quite frankly even that I'm not sure if that's the real Catalyst markets care about right now and it seems more like markets care about what's going to end up happening with earnings will earnings beat or will earnings Miss I mean the terminal fed funds rate right now is projected to sit at uh let's see here let's grab it here and then let's look at the five-year break even as well so terminal fed funds rate right now still sitting at 5.29 that's only slightly pricing in one more rate hike that's really not a big deal uh you also have uh let's see here you've also got the five-year break even five year Break Even very well anchored down to 2.16 that's actually pretty good uh it'd be nice if it were falling really you might have to end up getting another raid hike from the FED to get this to push down uh markets are now seeing the terminal rate as of today terminal rate uh being priced in for November and then your first Cuts pricing in for March with uh probably a full percentage points of cuts priced in for November of 2024.
of course that pricing metric could change and we'll see how earnings hold up between now and then but so far there don't seem to be horrible red flags from the Mutiny don't seem to be horrible red flags from oil or energy no horrible red flags from Commodities no horrible red flags on inflation we do have an inflation Catalyst this week pce coming out on Friday we'll talk more about that later but uh beyond that this is uh I'm very curious to see how the week starts off here came off a little bit of a rough four day week last year or last week and uh fingers crossed we have a little bit of a stronger one here but again any kind of near-term pullback totally expected with the rally that we've seen so far so uh don't get nervous I I personally am uh I'm all in yeah I'm uh I know that makes me biased but I'm looking at the bear arguments every single day and nothing scares me and you know just like in January of 2022 when I put all the pieces of the bear puzzle together everybody knew the entire world knew within 24 hours like oh my God this is a poop show uh and um and uh I will always be the first to let you know when I change my mind as much as they're going to be some people who hate me for changing my mind I'll always change my mind uh after all I am wearing a suit and uh sitting with that pants on with a Hello Kitty coffee mug so uh then again consider the source I suppos
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