저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 단기적으로 닛티(Nifty) 반등 가능성을 보지만 장기 강세장은 아직 확인되지 않았고, 원유·금·은행·바이오 등 섹터별로 방향이 엇갈린다. [시장 전반·닛티] 닛티가 며칠간 장중 하락 후 반등하는 패턴을 반복하며 단기 바닥 형성을 시사. 목요일 아침까지 반전이 나오면 1000포인트 반등 가능성, 그 경우 손절선은 최근 저점 아래에 설정. [뱅크닛티] 아직 약세 흐름. 반등 후 하락 가능성이 있어 은행주는 당분간 회피, 반등 시 숏 관점 제시. SBI 등 공공은행은 반등에서 상대적으로 덜 오를 것으로 봄. [릴라이언스] 52주 저점 부근에서 반전 가능성, 2830 부근까지 재반등 후 2년 내 조정 가능성 언급. [원유·금] 원유는 62달러 돌파 여부가 핵심, 돌파 시 80~115달러 가능성. 금은 장기 강세이나 단기적으로는 매도 신호, 10~12% 상승 후 조정 뒤 20~25% 추가 상승 가능성 언급. [바자지파이낸스·바자지파이낸스서브] 10년간의 강세 사이클이 끝났다고 보며 향후 5년간 재상승 어려움. 반등 시 숏 관점. [섹터] 소형 제약·소형 IT 매수 관점, 대형 IT는 회피. 자동차·정유·비료 관련 섹터는 후순위. 정밀화학·일부 소형 화학주 40~75% 상승 가능성 언급. [출연자 전망] 단기 반등 강조하나 장기 확신은 제한적. 지수 상승 시 대형주 중심 매매 시사.
다듬은 글
The biggest big bold thing is what will I give tomorrow, whatever the market orders me, whatever the market gives me, I will have to tell that. So Russia, which had created such terrible uncertainty with the entire world for the last one year, today there has been a big breakout in the Russian stock market and stop loss is there for everything, it seems that this breakout has a very quick moving power of 70 to 80%, such a quick moving power, if in the next two to three months the Russian market increases by 70 to 80%, does it mean that the war in Ukraine is over, so till date the market has seen only negative uncertainties in the last three months and it is possible that from here onwards positive uncertainties can also disturb the market because mother of all there is a recession and the market is not becoming recessionary, but the market has become recessionary, it means it has been a little while, it has happened for once, it may happen in the future also, but for now, just look at what has been happening for the last four days, if I could show you this chart on my screen, both the previous tax rates of Nifty.
What is happening is that the market goes down in intraday and after coming back it gets banded at the sense star, then it gets at the gate, then it goes down again, after coming up it gets banded, then after opening a gap down ceiling and going down it gets banded at the level again. I have been testing the market for the last 3-4 days by pushing towards the lower stars in intraday, brother of the people, but the market is not losing since last day, I am talking strictly about short term trading, so it is possible that if not tomorrow then the day after tomorrow such a firm reversal may happen that once again Nifty rallies by thousand points, poor poor and I am using the word rally, long term bull market is still not triggerable.
Yesterday patterns have not been found that stoppage should be placed in every trade, so let's say a rally of 1000 points, if you are expecting a rally according to this chart, then what will be the stop loss here, if I could talk to you again on Thursday and by the time the chart has given a form reversal, then whatever minimum star the market would have made, it has not yet come till the upcoming reversal, friends, if If you want to invest your money in the market, then join Angel Broking right now because here you get good advice and reliable surveys and opening an account here is also absolutely free of cost.
So join Angel Broking today. The account opening link is in the description. Open your account today. Because if the market band crosses above 1730 today, then I will take it today itself. If the band does not cross above 1730 today, then my guess is that there might be a bullish trend from Thursday.
Tomorrow could be another day of disappointment for the market. So whatever lowest star has formed till now or any star below this, before the reversal, I will take a stop loss on it and I am doing it with a thousand point mark. How do you know it might become even higher? Okay, so whatever low is formed till Thursday, let's consider it a star plus.
Then whatever will happen in Bank Nifty, Sushil ji, because Bank Nifty had tried to show some strength, but it has continuously made load losses, after that it has definitely made a decline. So, look at the continuous lower losses that are being made on the chart of Bank Nifty right now. The pattern that we have seen till now, this blue XXS from time to time, is almost a completed collection pattern in our hands.
Now as soon as the reversal is confirmed, we will put a level of completed collection on this fall. Now the bend etc. that has come before this, it is not necessary that this bend will come back with time. This one leg of this collection will end and become a connector move. If we assume it goes back to 42200 and after that, if Bank Nifty again gets swallowed up to 26000, then it is okay to proceed conservatively for once.
For now, if I get a reversal by Thursday morning, then I will estimate a move back to 4000. And if we talk a little about the long term, everyday the market is giving more money. In the long term, so very quickly I will give you the bread thesis of some sectors. I do not want to sell Done Cement shares.
Whenever they come, there is a big boom in each individual bike. Now your tyre stocks have been added to that list, auto and There are only two heavy bets from the bank and I think if there will be a rally in Nifty of 1200 points then Reliance can go on the front foot and bat that even if 2200 reaches 2900, it can show a new high price and Reliance will show such a new high price and the index still shows a rise of 1200 points, so some sectors will be big laggards on which I come last, small pharma, small IT, buy them when the signal comes, do not sell them, I will ignore big IT, there is selective selling in autos also, there will be selling in banks after the rally, then all the manufacturing stocks, all the non-MC engineering manufacturing stocks, I think all of them have already shown a Nifty price of 12000-13000, there are stocks from all over the world in which if you take a view of 6 months to 8 months then there is a rise of 50 to 70% and after that you can look at fertilizer stocks, refinery, etc.
which then Nifty and banks Nifty, if I listen to myself for once, then there are papad and chutney in our bhajan, which should be seen last, right now the creamy picture is being formed, charts are being made, so many are being made, whatever came in the Do side Nifty in the last 20 days, it was spun, Nifty I also did a lot, the momentum of almost 3 months got wasted, sir, how do you propose Nifty I I, you cannot trade only Nifty IT, so in such a situation, what is your opinion on big stocks like Infosys, 30s, Tech Mahindra, right now, look at these, for once, all of them are oversold, if we just talk by making Infosys Columba, you will see, the chart of Infosys is sold for once and as soon as this latest Do train line breaks upwards, then this shortsale will be taken on them, as soon as this line breaks, all three of them, Infosys, TCS are almost in this situation and I think in the next round, if once again I wouldn't be surprised if Infocity shows ₹1400 reaching ₹16500.
Furthermore, even if such a rally occurs, I believe that in the subsequent phase, whatever Nifty may reach, 18, 18, 300, these big capitals will create a new low. So, once the rally from 1400 to 1700 is considered a rally of about 15-17%, I will play it in today's party as well if the market reverses, but the long-term story is right now, you are not talking about the bottom tomorrow, Sushil Sir, and now you are saying that yes, if there is a pullback in the market, then you should play the big players of Nifty for a plus.
Well, Sir, you were just commenting on Bank Nifty, almost after the budget, I mean, because of the debt Adani issue, some government banks were quite substantial, and especially SBI Sir, what you were talking about, who will have the strongest contribution in the pullback of Bank Nifty, or else You have taken SBI in isolation.
Who will rally the most in the upcoming rally? Or are you talking about the next 6 months, who will dominate this rally? So, the upcoming rally will be faster than the rest of the market. In banks, a stock like SBI may rise by 10% and Punjab National Bank may rise by 11-12%. After that, if I feel that after this rally, if it falls by another 20%, then I will not give banks a part-time in this rally.
I will stay away from banks. And if this rally happens, then look to short them at higher levels. If we cannot short them with both hands like Arjun, then we should put some banks on the waiting list so that when this rally is over, we will short them. So, I will stay out of banks in this rally also because the amount is limited and when the maximum outperformance comes, it is important to buy that stock now and in this way, we will buy all the banks and especially SBI, hence we will not go long on them.
Okay, Sushil ji, you had talked about Reliance, please see its chart once. Show on the screen why you are doing so much and after the buy chase, see that today only the rally started in Reliance but yesterday itself it almost made a 52 week low and why are you trying to price it, sometimes it happens, see for free, the reversal has already happened, it is almost close to Grihasthundoji or you can definitely consider it as threshing out, today your film is over, if the stock goes up and breaks the trade line, then for once, at this hour today, no one can go short, which is gone after looking at the charts, now if we look at the larger picture, then you will also see that Reliance is from its old time brother around 2800 or can catch this scam, this is continuously Reliance, from around 286070 to yesterday's lowest star of 2200, in this band, this has become WX and this may be from here in the long term book market in Reliance It may start, which I cannot predict right now.
It is possible that it may go back and come back again around 2830 and after that, within the next two years, it may become useless. So, I am a slave to these patterns. If you want to invest in the market, then join Angel Broking now because here you get good advice and reliable service and opening an account here is also absolutely free of cost.
So join Angel Broking today. The account opening link is in the description. Open your account today because global markets also follow a couple of charts. If you have followed them, one is gold, the time is continuously rising here and the other is crude. If you have followed the chart, very good. You have asked two very good relevant questions.
I will try to load both of them on this screen. So, look at crude, it is a very important one, very important one. I am going to talk to you, while I am talking to you, I will load the other screen. There is a critical thing for the dollar in it, until it breaks 62 and something in both of them, if here again It creates a reversal, confirmation of both those things is still pending, if you look at the chart of A fruit in front of you, then just like Nifty has been struggling for three days, repeatedly trying to go down but is unable to break the band below, crude has also started giving those signals and if you look at the larger pattern, this flag pattern which is forming between these two blue lines, then almost without breaking 62, if the root turns, it will go to 80 once and if there is a breakout above 80, then it can go back to 115 and this chart is even more clear on the MCX chart, if crude does not go below 5500 on MCX and goes back to 9000, then there is a big bullish potential in crude, on the other hand, Russia can end and thirdly, all the refinery stocks are learning that first of all take me, how these three things will add up, I do not know, that is why I am looking at crude in a rally, what will happen if it breaks 62, if it breaks from there, then the next three tax games If it comes back above 62, then it is a very interesting time, the next 7-8 days should be watched very carefully and as far as gold is concerned, in the long term, we are in a wild rally and in the short term, gold has become a sell signal for short term trading, those who have training long should definitely buy it and aggressive traders can also short it and after around 10 to 12% rise in gold, when a new reversal will happen again, I think it will move by 20 to 25%, back to a completely new miraculous price, now it will become right, gold is not running and will give collection back only once, okay so two, if you see, I forgot to ask you a question, two important hi, I have seen on the new B2 Sir, Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, this time this story has completely collapsed, Bajaj Financial, Bajaj Finserv is on the back foot, there is a 52 week global, what is your view on this, Sir, you have asked a very beautiful question, we will show you the analysis on this in detail in some other discussion again.
We had taken this analysis view almost two and a half years ago and it remains true till today that the 10 year honeymoon of Bajaj Finance and Bajaj Finserv has ended and I do not think that their time will return for the next 5 years and in that, such a big rally was seen in one phase in the last 12-13 months and after that, the rally of 40-50% to 60% that also we fed to our subscribers, so now if this rally happens in the overall market, then whatever comes in it, we will try to stay on the side and after it starts, we will give it back.
I think that from time to time, very big rallies will come in Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, that people cannot leave that story, but that whole valuation cycle, that whole theatre, is over, so now those who are its lovers, I will find it very bitter and brother, if you love money more, then on the upper star, we will wait for the sale of Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, short sale.
You will make more money by doing this, once there is a rally of 8-10-12%, let it come, so let me take one last question from you because for two days we discussed the sector, chemicals and also two-three small sectors, you were saying that there are a lot of stocks there, so any two-three stocks on the chart which you can show which you think are good, you have to take it seriously here, time is precious for you people, so let's say within chemicals, money will be made in two-three stocks of fine organic chemicals, and then your fire, graphite, GNFC, we are not paying attention to the rise in Deepak Nitrite and Naveen Fluorine, but except these recent visible stocks, all the side pocket stocks, be it Sudarshan Chemicals, the charts are bullish in all of them and why will there be a rise of at least 40-45% in these chemical stocks and 70-75% in many stocks across the board, how will it come, what will happen with China, that has been told in the coming time and in this way your SOC It is a manufacturing stock, you should leave out ABP Siemens, the recently visible stock is a bigger cap than anyone for the overall market and the stocks which have shown a placement of ₹12000 will take away unsung money, so in the next discussion I will prepare a lot of stocks with you and go long actually, whatever you want, take the risk of losing, ok Sushil, thank you for joining us, it was nice talking to you and more in the future
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