저자: SkylerJames · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 영상은 캐시 우드/ARK 펀드에 대한 비판이며, 역방향 ETF SARK 매수는 권하지 않는다. 주제 1 - 테슬라 효과: 2018년 캐시 우드가 테슬라 4000달러를 외치며 강세를 주장했고, 2019년 말 테슬라 사업 턴어라운드 이후 ARKK가 테슬라에 약 10% 비중을 두며 주가 상승을 견인했다는 주장. 주제 2 - 펀드 성과 및 비용: ARKK 5년 성과는 2020년 3월~2021년 3월 기간을 빼면 시장 대비 두드러지지 않으며, 보수율 0.75%가 비싸다는 평가. 테슬라 외 성과도 약하다고 주장. 주제 3 - 고점 매수·저점 매도: ARK가 Zillow 급락 전후 매수 후 대량 매도, Virgin Galactic 저점 매도, Nvidia 40% 급등 후 매도 등을 사례로 듦. 잦은 매매가 수익률을 떨어뜨린다고 주장. 주제 4 - 역방향 ETF SARK: 숏 전략은 승률이 낮고 분산투자 취지와 맞지 않아 매수하지 않겠다는 입장. ARK ETF 중 4개는 무시, ARK-Q는 비싸다고 평가, ARK-W만 인터넷 성장 테마에서 예외적으로 긍정적. 출연자 전망: 장기적으로 인터넷 성장에 강세지만 ARK 펀드 자체에는 부정적이며, 특정 종목 방향성 예측은 명시되지 않음.
다듬은 글
Do you believe in innovation? How do you feel about Cathie Wood and Ark Invest? I’ve got big news for you if you’re a fan of Cathie, and even BIGGER news if you disagree with her strategy. That’s because there’s a new ETF that returns the OPPOSITE of her flagship fund: the Ark Innovation ETF. Should you be interested?
I’m Skyler James, welcome back to the channel. I have two unique reasons as to why maybe you should. My reasons are way different than other people’s, so it’s in your best interest to hang around until the end to hear it all. This new ETF is from Tuttle, and the ticker is S-A-R-K. Short, Ark. Simple enough.
And just so we’re all on the same page, when we say SARK, S-Ark, what should we call this? Let’s call it S-Ark. S-Ark is an inverse ETF, meaning it delivers the opposite of the Ark Innovation ETF. If Arkk goes up two percent, S-Ark goes down two percent. Ark down three, Sark up three. Simple, straight forward results.
Now take a look at the chart of Arkk and see why some people are calling this a good idea. The ETF is about break-even, year to date, but look at the 5 year. If we take out the twelve months of March 1, 2020 through March 1, 2021, shareholders aren’t outperforming the market or getting much value for the 75 basis point expense ratio Cathie is charging.
But this isn’t an argument of Arkk versus the S&P 500. This is an argument for or against inversing the returns of Arkk. Now stay with me, because like I said, my explanation is a bit different than other people’s. Other analysts, other commentators, they’re going to tell you not to buy Arkk for one of several reasons.
I can bet you on it. They’re going to say things like: the price to earnings ratio - the p/e - is bonkers. They’re going to say the ETF is all revenue stocks and not income stocks. They’re going to tell you that investing in innovation has ended up a losing bet in the past. And all three of those things are true.
They’re going to tell you the ark funds have performed terribly this year - which, as a whole, they have. They certainly aren’t standouts. And these other commentators will show that fund outflows are confirming that investors like me and you have been running for the exits. But my message is different.
I have two things you should understand. It’s the Tesla effect. And it’s buying high and selling low. Let’s start with the Tesla effect. Back in the days of our ancestors, so so long ago, Tesla stock was unloved. The year was 2018. Yeah, I’m making a point that just three years ago the majority of Wall Street wasn’t backing Tesla.
There were a handful of analysts, economists, and money managers with a contrarian opinion, but most of Wall Street didn’t love Tesla. Cathie Wood - analyst, economist, and money manager - was the loudest in the room with her contrarian stance. She boldly went on TV and said Tesla to 4000! This is when it was trading for two hundred dollars.
Tesla to 4000! It takes alot of guts to go on TV and say that. So what happens? Late 2019, Tesla The Business turns a corner. Suddenly - Wall street thinks Tesla could actually become something! But what is it worth? Nobody knew. Analysts and observers were looking at Tesla and saying “we’ve hated it for so long that we haven’t asked ourselves what the company is worth if they get their act together!” So this is just my opinion, but these analysts scanned the landscape looking for people who were already bullish on Tesla.
And they landed on Cathie. They looked at Cathie’s ETFs. And they saw that her conviction was so strong, that she was willing to dedicate ten percent of her actively managed ETF - A-R-K-K - to Tesla’s stock. THIS, in my opinion, is how Tesla ran from 200 bucks to 3000 plus in 18 months. Pre-split of course.
Without Cathie as the cheerleader, would this have happened? I can only know what you think if you leave a comment down below. And don’t forget to subscribe if you like this content. Let’s take the Tesla idea a step further. Cathie’s bullish call solidified her reputation as a diamond in the rough investor.
If she “knew” Tesla could be worth thousands a share, what other stocks does she see potential in? Could Teledoc have a Tesla-like run? Could Zillow? Could Square? And if we look at the performance chart, this thinking, this gambling - almost - that Cathie could 10x ALL the stocks in her portfolio really started to get traction.
And that run lasted until February of 2021. A couple months into 2021, people started to leave the party. The punch bowl was empty. The music wasn’t cool anymore. Look at the fund flows for Arkk. Fund flows and performance trace each other pretty well. June of 2020, people start giving more investment dollars to Cathie.
Arkk runs up and up until February. Retail traders continue buying Arkk - buying the dip - into March. But from then until now - fund flows are net negative. Now that was a fun trip down memory lane, but I want to just wrap this up so you have the full picture in just a couple of sentences. Analysts didn’t like Tesla stock, Tesla turned it around on the business end, investors followed Cathie’s lead and price target, Tesla became a self-fulfilling prophecy, investors poured money into Arkk, looking for the next diamond in the rough, while artificially inflating the value of Arkk’s holdings, and when Tesla became fully valued earlier this year, investors headed for the exits.
Let’s take Tesla out of the equation. What other outsized wins does Cathie have? Like, did we need Cathie to tell us that Docusign was going to increase in value during the lockdowns? Or Teladoc health? All in all, there’s not alot to like about the Ark funds considering the price they charge investors, and their performance history OUTSIDE of Tesla.
The second reason we should be thinking twice about Ark ETFs is that management has a tendency to buy high and sell low. Actually - back up - their main bad trait is constantly trading in and out of positions. Cathie goes on TV and says “it’s a great strategy, we provide liquidity in the market.” That’s what she says.
But we all know that frequent trading ends up with a lower brokerage balance compared to just buying and holding. You don’t believe me? Go trade in and out some of your winners and get back to me, let me know how that works out. Again, comments section down below. There are two stocks I want to draw your attention to.
First, Virgin Galactic. Now this company has a LOT of problems. Cathie and Ark liquidated their position in the high teens, the high teens! When the sentiment around the company was at its very lowest. Isn’t that injecting emotion into investing? Don’t we know that’s a bad strategy? Selling low? Now a second stock to look at.
Check out Zillow. Zillow was a top Ark holding for a long time, years. It checks off the Ark boxes: it’s internet, it's gaining market share through innovation, it has iBuying - Zillow offered what Ark wants in a holding. As I record this, Zillow is recovering from a monumental drop in its share price.
Thirty some percent. Ark management’s approach went something like this: stock is starting to slip, buy more! buy the dip! The next day: Oh shoot that was a mistake, sell and sell ALOT. Like, millions of shares. The day after that: sell everything we have left, another million shares. Ark sold 5 million shares AFTER the stock lost 35% of its value.
One week’s time, down 35%, Cathie sold her entire position. Would you sell low like that? I mean, I know some aggressive growth investors who trade like that. But do YOU run YOUR portfolio like that? I don’t. You could be Warren Buffett or you could be my buddy from high school, either way, I’m going to tell ya, that’s not the way to run a portfolio.
Because markets overreact to news all the time - in both directions - up AND down. I prefer to sit tight and let the dust settle. I DEFINITELY don’t expect someone I’m paying for money management to get emotional like that. Isn’t this how it always goes? You go down these Ark and Cathie Wood rabbit holes and forget how you even started.
She DRAWS emotion out of us, and whether we agree with her or not - it doesn’t matter. She’s one of the things that makes investing fun. I’m just not giving her any of my money! So - S-Ark. Do you want to own this inverse ETF to go against Cathie and her picks? I think broadly speaking, shorting stocks is a loser’s game.
It’s extremely challenging to win consistently doing that. And to short 50 stocks - 50 stocks that someone else has chosen! it’s like trying to catch a falling knife. We talk about ETFs being good investing tools because they offer diversity, and that investors can minimize losses by holding ETFs. Doesn’t shorting or inversing an ETF sound a direct contradiction to that?
So I won’t be buying S-Ark, but I’m not buying any Ark ETFs either. And as a bonus - If you want my opinion on the 6 Ark ETFs, I say ignore 4 of them completely. A fifth - Ark-Q - I say is ownable but too expensive for what you get. You don’t get anything special with Ark-Q but she’s killing you on the fees.
Ark-W is the one exception to my anti-Ark stance. I’m very bullish overall on the direction of the internet, and how it’s weaving more and more into our lives, and I think Ark-W captures it nicely. Again though, the fees are killer, and you could probably get similar performance from less expensive ETFs.
Check out my 2022 ETF video for some good ideas. Thanks for watching and I’ll see you on the next one! -- end //My message is that Cathy Wood and Ark Invest buy high and sell low. They do it all the time! They buy high and sell low, and we know this because they publish their trade history each and every day.
Bravo! for the transparency. But they trade constantly and they make bad trades. As I record this right now, one of the big themes of the week in the stock market is Zillow. Zillow’s stock dropped some twenty percent the other day, after on an earnings call, the CEO said they were ending their I-Buying program for good, along with a 500 million dollar write down.
Zillow, before this massive share price debacle, was one of Ark Invest’s highest conviction names. They held it in X number of their actively-managed ETFs, name them here, It was the blank biggest holding in the ark sphere. And Ark owned this much percent of zillow. Like, Ark was ALL IN on zillow. The Ark Innovation Fund, A-R-K-K, was this much percent Zillow at the start of 2020.
This much in the late spring. This much in the days leading to this I-Buying collapse. //The day before Zillow tanked 20 some percent, Ark actually bought more shares into the weakness. And then unloaded at the stock’s low point. Ark has done this in the past with Virgin Galactic too, selling at under 20 bucks a share just before the stock shot up to 50 bucks.
She’s sold nvidia as that stock jumped 40% in a month. That’s fine, capturing profits, but are we saying nvidia is out of runway? We think that a company with a 750 billion dollar market cap is maxed out? Maybe in your grandfather’s stock market. Not in 2021 with the metaverse, crypto, AI, self-driving and gaming.
Take tesla from the conversation, all 100% of us recognize her call being right. Take out Tesla. What else has she won on? In fact I follow her moves pretty closely. Not as close as I’ve used to, I’ve more or less completely given up on her at this point. But there was a peculiar trend. She often bought high and sold low.
And that’s a real ice pick to the foot when you trade as actively as her fund does.
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