저자: Kevin · 외국인
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9월/10월 인플레이션이 예상보다 높게 나올 수 있으며, 원자재·중고차·임대료·임금·에너지가 동반 상승해 인플레 위기가 지속된다고 주장. 유가는 지정학·OPEC 감산·미국 시추 감소로 높게 유지될 수 있음. 인플레가 길어져도 테크/혁신성장주 매수 기회로 보고 기존 포트폴리오(테슬라, 엔페이즈, 팔란티어 등)를 유지·추가매수하겠다는 입장. 비트코인은 일부 매도 후 재매수했고 계속 보유 예정.
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this video is sponsored by check out the stocks and psychology of money group with options trading technical analysis long run investing analysis fundamentals also check out the real estate investing course property management do-it-yourself rental renovations and making youtube videos or selling real estate all those programs linked down below with a 41 off coupon code sad reality that inflation might end up coming in in october as a september reading worse than we expect in this video i'm going to break down exactly why and the catalyst for this we're going to talk about cars we're going to talk about oil wages important pieces that go into this and importantly as well we're going to talk about what i'm doing about it let's get started right after i mentioned that if you want to get life insurance in as little as five minutes just go to med kevin.com life and apple pay or android pay for it and that way if this ever happens level 99 slayer you get slate at least you got life insurance for your friends family or whoever you make your beneficiary check it out by going metkevin.com life and apple pay or android pay for it all right let's get started so first things first the bloomberg commodity index just hit a record high part of this has to do with the fact that we currently spend a dollar per gallon more on gasoline than we did a year ago we're also spending two and a half times as much money as we used to on natural gas food is up 33 worldwide commodities are through the roof cotton has been skyrocketing recently aluminum skyrocketed over 40 percent recently and commodities across the board are not only inflating in their price but they are staying high longer than expected for example take lumber with lumber we were expecting lumber prices to go up as we had supply shortages we saw this coming then we saw lumber prices go down and we thought to ourselves ha see inflation is transitory everything's going back down it's all good but folks there are weird things happening lumber prices skyrocketed to about 1750 lumber futures fell to under 500 to about 480 but what's weird is folks now they're coming up again going back to 642.
we are inflecting back up again certainly not as violently as we saw in april and may but we're seeing an inflection point up again but lumber's not even the one that we care about mostly right now because home building starts have started to slow down maybe taking a little bit of pressure off of lumber it's all the commodities together which have been skyrocketing staying at higher levels for longer than expected and they're not showing signs of relenting take for example the manheim used a vehicle index which is outside of the commodities index which is showing the same type of pattern we saw this insane run up in in used vehicle prices at the beginning of the year potentially as a result of all of the stimulus money that has flown into the economy despite the fact that factories shut down during a recession expecting that people would be saving money and buying less cars when exactly the opposite ended up being true driving up the cost of used cars and then leading them to skyrocket here leading into march but what's insane is take a look at this folks first we had a lot of economists talking about the iman heme index and about ah look it's inflecting down maybe it'll stabilize a little higher here at the shelf but eventually it'll just keep trickling down but folks look at what it's doing again once again it's inflecting up the same thing is happening with wages we're seeing wages go up and yeah we hope that productivity goes up to offset this but folks the things that we're expecting to be transitory are lasting a lot longer this creates issues look for example at oil kathy wood for example was cheering the fact that much like her expectations for lumber oil prices would come crashing down well unfortunately that has not happened oil prices have not come crashing down in fact if we look at a chart of brent crude just to see what the pricing is of brent crude we'll see we haven't been at these highs for years take a look at the view for brent crude we'll go out to the max view over here on the right and we're going to take this brent crude chart all the way to 2017 where we could see that we hit a peak of 83.91 here briefly in october of 2018 came crashing down at one point oil was trading negatively during the recession and we are straight back up to these high 2018 levels which is interesting because in the fall of 2018 is also where the federal reserve was talking a lot about raising rates to rein in inflation and this always creates the debate of wait a minute do we blame the chicken or the egg here what came first inflation and then oil prices going up or oil prices going up and then that leading to there being inflation because oil is measured in the cpi who knows but the point is you got used cars inflecting up you've got lumber slowly inflecting up again you've got oil prices inflecting up natural gas up food up a lot of inflationary issues pushing up kathy wood obviously takes the reverse argument it says but we're in longer run cyclical trends of deflation and i'm going to talk about my thoughts on this in just a moment but i want to pay a little bit of homage to oil which is something that i've not paid a lot of attention to because i'm not a commodities trader and so i wanted to find out why is it that oil prices are doing this are oil prices going to potentially be temporary right i expect that once we get our supply shortage dealt with that used car cr the used car crisis will abate and prices will come down but i want to know are we in it with longer or higher oil prices for longer and this is very important because it would keep inflation higher for longer and so the economist did a piece and indicated that there are three reasons we have higher oil prices one has to do with the start stop uneven recovery that we've been part of for example china was killing it now it's slowing down coming out of the recession uh and this is the coveted recession america is going full steam ahead and europe is trying to catch up to america but it's doing so slower while poorer countries have yet to pick up at all covet factory shot downs hurt a lot like taiwan shutting down factories losing nike about 10 days worth of production note it is worthy to mention that 50 of nike's footwear is produced in taiwan freight futures have obviously skyrocketed as we've got almost 80 vessels part uh docked outside of the port of los angeles when usually on average day we have one we now have 80.
copper has skyrocketed partially because of mine closures in south america thanks again due to covid right so this is constant like covet pressure right we're seeing this over and over and over again but this sort of stop start of our economy affects oil because oil producers can't just turn the valve on or off or on or off or on or off it's frustrating so if they just keep production steady but lower then if prices go up great it just means more profits now usually what happens then is someone around the world just ends up turning on the tap to produce more oil american fracking companies frack more or opec produces more oil but everybody together is refusing to do that they're not doing that and there's potentially a reason for that we'll talk about that in just a moment but another factor that's affecting oil prices is the fact that you have governments pushing this green transition villainizing oil and really favoring natural gas as a transition fuel now this is not a video to talk about how we should transition or should not transition from oil to green energy i think the green energy has a long way to go before we can actually transition and quite frankly i get frustrated when i hear people on the green side make arguments like we should be 100 green today great but we don't have the chips we don't have the technology yet i can get behind batteries and windmills and solar all day long if they support and sustain our grids but as long as california keeps having power outages because california refuses to invest more in improving our natural gas efficiency while at the same time we're shutting down a nuclear power plant that supplies nine percent of california's electricity don't talk to me about not wanting oil and natural gas because we need it to survive as humans okay so again i'm a big bull on ev but it's going to take way longer than we expect and politicians just like to be all we're going green we're going to punish natural gas and oil it doesn't do anything when we can't get to the energy sustainability that we need yet i'm all for i want to make this clear more investments this is why lithium for example is up 21 but in part natural gas is skyrocketing because of this green transition push away from oil into green but we're not ready for that green transition yet so you're also seeing oil go up on top of that but look it's not just the stop and go of the economy especially with coveted shutdowns and things like that and it's also not just politicians pushing green it's also the fact that we've got a lot of crazy geopolitical tensions going on in the trade world which creates uncertainty remember uncertainty generally leads to pain in pricing and in oil pain and pricing tends to mean pricing of oil goes up like it's one of those things that goes up with uncertainty uh because it's it's uh it's a commodity that we use regularly when we have certainty that there's plenty of it then prices come down when we're uncertain about the future of oil like are we going to have enough prices go up and so here are just some examples that are helping mess things up russia is purposefully limiting the sale of gas to europe allegedly to help them get their desired pipeline through china and australia usually have a good relationship but now china has embargoed australia on their mining and farming expert exports increasing prices for materials and food leading to inflation in prices for things like iron ore coprocuts and aluminum oxide we've seen aluminum skyrocket europe's natural gas costs are up 80 percent since literally august which is a month and a half ago now iron has fallen about 40 percent but that's partially because china is reducing steel demand but now coal is skyrocketing because mongolia is in a coveted lockdown so it's like even if lumber or iron falls coal or other things just take their place in this sort of inflationary argument but these sorts of commodity uncertainties also lead to pain in oil for people who consume oil which means higher prices which is actually good for people who produce oil now oil is also over 80 because opec and its allies are being pretty disciplined in not raising more usually you have somebody who goes rogue and just starts producing more because they want to profit more opec is the organization of petroleum exporting countries it is a group of 13 of the world's major oil exporting nations opec wants to manage the supply of oil it's kind of like a cartel it's kind of like they collude to set the price of oil so they can all establish production and not go through these crazy stop and go waves of production on production off that's that's really bad for oil based it's hiring engineers and it's firing people or laying them off it's a mess it's a disaster so because there's so much uncertainty in economics and the commodities market right now just giving you some of the other examples that i have a lot of folks in opec nations are saying let's just keep production on a slow growth trajectory and if the price of oil goes up so be it we'll make more and again usually somebody breaks the rules and just produces more oil but right now everybody's being pretty much in agreement on this nobody wants to go through this stop and go so countries are agreeing with this this also follows the fact that we got an announcement that opec plus which includes some countries like russia are purposefully increasing oil production by about 400 000 barrels each day for about a month but they're going to do so gradually and quite frankly this current rate or this newly announced rate is nowhere near enough to meet the demands that the world has for oil right now especially as things start reopening see delta going away actually helps boost potential inflation concerns especially in oil again now the united states can try to negotiate it can do a lot you know saudi arabia is one of our biggest allies big member of opec but reality is america itself isn't drilling more and this is another big issue remember how earlier i mentioned that hey our oil producers are purposefully not producing more because of that stop and go cycle what they're doing instead of drilling more is they're paying off debt they're actually deleveraging and instead returning money to shareholders and this is why we're seeing energy stocks up about 40 they're doing stock buybacks they're raising dividends folks we have just 528 operating rigs in the united states right now that is half of what we had in 2019.
at the same time you've got biden talking about maybe cutting his push on biofuels to prioritize other issues and you've got hsbc forecasting that we could see pain in oil until 2025 folks this is nuts some of these inflationary factors are just going to be more persistent we hope that the supply chain issues wane and this video wasn't much about the supply chain issues that we did talk about the manheim used vehicle index this video is mostly about commodities unfortunately commodities make up a big part of inflation and so we might continue to see inflation from the energy side now when we look at inflation we generally look at headline inflation and then we look at inflation like cpi less energy we do that on purpose so we could try to extract the crazy volatile fluctuations that we get in energy but lately inflation and commodities have kind of been moving in sync and that's because at the same time as we're having these issues in commodities we're seeing rents increase in some cases 10 to 15 percent year over year we're finally seeing rents move up at a higher pace we're seeing those used car vehicle prices go back up that's going to hurt we were expecting used car vehicle prices to go down to offset rents but now we're seeing both of these go up and we're seeing wages go up plus energy go up plus food go up the inflation crisis persists and so even though i've been very hopeful for september and october readings of inflation to come in lower than expected we might be in a situation where we actually end up having higher expectations for inflation right now we're expecting to see inflation come in at a headline reading of 5.2 percent this data comes out next wednesday it's the cpi release it's possible we're going to beat this again month over month inflation expected to come in at 0.4 we might beat these numbers and here's what that means for our investments if inflation comes in hot again the typical trade is crypto rotates up and tech stocks rotate down that is the typical rotation that is what i would expect however that is not changing ironically my investment thesis my investment thesis is stick with the teflon tech and innovative growth companies the enphase the etsy the tesla the companies that benefit from the innovations and transitions of our world because in my opinion even if this inflation crisis lasts longer than expected all it's going to mean is i'm going to have more of a longer term by the dip opportunity in my favorite investment opportunities again like envase tesla palantir you name it my innovative growth companies yeah these have higher earnings multiples but that's because they've got innovation and growth they're not making cheap lame frozen food and sitting on an aisle somewhere and having to convince their customers to come back every single month just to try to meet earnings these are companies that have recurring revenue these are companies that have real and actual growth and solve real problems that we have in our society not pump people full of cheap salty foods and so without being salty about inflation i want to make it clear i'm staying the course i'm going to keep loading up on what i believe in i'm probably not going to sell my bitcoin again now for some of you who didn't hear that i did sell my bitcoin just to lower my cost basis which i successfully did thanks to the evergrand news i sold my bitcoin at about 44.8 and i rebought most of my crypto while bitcoin was sitting around 41.9 so i got a little bit of an adjustment to the downside there probably wasn't worth the risk it worked out but i also like trading i enjoy the challenge that worked out great but i probably will keep my crypto and continue investing in real estate as my two hedges for my innovative stock portfolio now i've got a big position of my stocks in tesla end phase right some of these high growth companies and some of them are part of the green energy in fact both of these are part of the green energy transition which is great but they're going to suffer potentially from the chip shortage and other issues for the near term uh near term could be the next six months it could also be the next 12 months so we'll see if their growth is and ends up being capped because of some of these inflation headwinds potentially we're going to see treasury yields rise but so far treasury yields have been stable which somewhat indicates that bond markets expect inflation to stay high longer and as a result the 10-year treasury is staying stable but we're not actually expecting an inflection point to the upside so again we'll probably stay in the same sort of windy situation where we are where inflation just remains high you have the consistent headwinds against uh technology stocks which creates buy the dip opportunities you have some back wins for crypto which is good not super strong but maybe helps us kiss stay above 50 000 on bitcoin and overall i think the investment thesis stays solid the longer of an opportunity we have to buy the dip the longer of an opportunity we have to go make money and then invest in so folks these are my thoughts on what has happening with the inflation crisis no matter what happens i am staying the course with my thesis and i see opportunities of inflation actually helping me get discounts on the companies that i want because even if this inflation does last much longer than expected six to 12 months longer maybe even 18 months longer or two years longer i'm game i'm in it for the long run a minute to win it but i'm going to stay away from call options on these particular companies that i'm making those long investments in i'll go for shares or sell puts and then if i get a signed share it's great if i can farm the credit that's also grea want more insight
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