It's Over.

요약 보기

항만 파업은 이미 끝났고 채권금리는 상승했으나 ISM 서비스 가격지수 등으로 인플레 재부각 우려가 있다는 진단. 9월 고용 지표(NFP 예상 15만)와 기업 실적 가이던스 확인 전까지는 강세로 돌아서기 어렵다며 현재 'naked bull' 스케일 4.1 수준이라고 함. 경기침체 가능성을 높게 보며 10월 쇼크 여부에 따라 소프트랜딩 가능성이 달라진다고 언급. 'Magnificent 7' 과열과 Nifty50 사례를 경고하며 엔비디아 밸류 부담을 지적. 실제 자산별 1~3개월 방향 예측은 명확하지 않음.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Well, it's over. No, not a coupon for a coupon that expires tomorrow at midnight. Oh my God, no. Not yet. We still have time. Strike at the port. The strike at the port is already over. It literally started on October 1st at midnight, which means the first, second, third. We did n't even last the whole 3 days.

02. We know that the Biden administration was actively involved in the negotiations. And not because the Biden administration is considered particularly skilled at negotiating, but because , frankly, they have to... er, they can't tell the longshoremen to stop the strike because that would portray the Biden administration and the Democrats as anti-UN, which would n't work.

03. And in return, somehow the Maritime Alliance was willing to agree to a 62% wage increase for shore workers over 5 years. I think there were some , uh, backstage deals, full of speculation, that greased the wheels a little bit from some politicians, which made it a little bit easier and more tangible for the Maritime Administration to go for it, because now it looks like a political victory for the Biden administration.

04. And the ports are open again, and people no longer need to stock up on toilet paper. Because after all, for the last, uh , 72 hours, everyone seemed to think that we were going to go back to COVID, and there would be massive supply chain crises. Treasury yields have actually gone up significantly, especially based on some of the data we're getting on the economy, and I think that's an important next step that we should be paying attention to because a lot of people, as we said yesterday, were afraid of new waves of inflation.

05. The stock market began to fall today as the Biden administration suggested they were working with Israel and assessing how to counterattack Iran. At first, markets breathed a sigh of relief that it appeared the Biden administration had urged Israel not to do this, but now it actually looks like they are working with Israel to figure out how to counterattack.

06. Obviously, this led to a stock market crash, as well as a rise in oil markets. The price of Brent is now around 7762, which is, to be honest, a little over 10% up from the lows we were at a month ago, and that could lead to some inflationary pressure. The port strike was another inflationary pressure, but it has passed, and hopefully the Iranian threat will also disappear.

07. Unfortunately, we have felt other inflationary pressures, for example in the ISM services report, which is not very good this morning. ISM prices came in at 59.4 up from 56, which is certainly hotter than last month’s 57.3, which is an expansion indicator. They just survey companies and ask, "Hey, did you have to pay more for this nonsense this month, or less, or about the same?" So you just get the average of 50, 0, or 100.

08. And the average shows you the cumulative total. It doesn't necessarily show how much more companies you pay. So you can have a higher percentage of companies, and they all pay 1% more per year. Nobody really cares about it. This is not exactly inflation. This is nominal. In fact, this is below the inflation trend.

09. But the way these surveys are conducted is to simply find out if you paid more or less? They don't really give a detailed breakdown of how much more you paid? So you get this inflationary momentum that makes people fear that a second wave of inflation is coming. Regarding the ISM services index, we got our, um, preliminary data on that.

10. We only received the final data for September this morning. We also got the instant PMI indices for S&P. They also went up a bit in the prices paid, but we already knew that a few weeks ago . But the point is, when you combine all three of these indices, yes, the PMI and the ISM, that is, the port strike and the potential Iranian counterattack, you get a lot of concerns about the return of inflation.

11. And so, in the near term, right now, if you look at the breakeven points of inflation, in other words, inflation, the market expectation is that inflation will rise again. Inflation is now at 2.2%, the break-even point, which is almost as high as it was around August 1, just before the carry trade disaster.

12. Now, once you remove those catalysts and get new CPI reports, like the one we'll get later this month, I think inflationary pressures will ease back up, mainly because I don't see it as a problem. Most of the inflation we see is either not being measured properly, like in these ISM reports, or there are these temporary catalysts, like geopolitics or a strike at a port that's already over, right?

13. So, the CPI will be released on October 10th, robo- taxi day, and Tesla's chief investment officer literally just quit his job, a week before the robo-taxi event. A topic for another video, probably. I'll just say that this is very, very strange. But in any case, CPI inflation expectations are 0.1% lower month-on-month than the 0.2% we had last month.

14. The core CPI is expected to be 0.2 year-on-year, 2.3 year-on- year, and the core CPI is expected to be -3.2. These are very, very low figures. I want to go to the survey itself to see what that 0.2 is. How much do we round down? We round down from 0.23. So, so far we have only received 18 ratings. We usually get somewhere closer to 60, 50 to 60 marks.

15. So we're still waiting for some estimates. More estimates are actually on the lower side of the bell curve, which is, um, it's a little skewed, um, 1.5 times more likely for this metric for the baseline, um, compared to the month, than on the upper side. So most analysts seem to think it will be low, but it won't be the catalyst that's worrying the markets right now .

16. Markets will be concerned about the employment report coming out tomorrow morning. Now I'll be broadcasting this, obviously, on the Meet Kevin Market Live channel, absolutely free of charge. You can be there, and, uh , this market channel, uh, will be covering nonfarm payrolls tomorrow at 5:30 in the morning.

17. The current expectation is that there will be 150,000, which is good, but remember that the employment report is a lagging tool. Uh, actually what you're looking at is a leading jobs indicator . And when you look at companies, like this morning we looked at Dave and Busters, or, you know, in the live broadcasts for our course participants, or even when we look at companies in general, we see a lot of companies trying to cut costs by hiring fewer employees.

18. You even see it in the ISM services report. If you read the report that I did this morning, and I look at it , I'll say, "They say that companies are downsizing their workforce, either by hiring less, letting people, you know, leave due to attrition, and then not filling those positions, or, in some more limited cases, they're actually laying off or quietly laying off, like Amazon, everyone is going back to work in the corporate workforce." Please, some of you will leave.

19. This will increase our earnings per share . You know, this is all intentional and just shows you the difficulties of the economy where, you know, profits are not growing as fast as they used to and companies have to figure out how we can increase profitability. You know, another example here, I mean this one is a little more extreme, but Spirit Airlines is currently in talks with bondholders about possible bankruptcy.

20. you know, it's just news from the last few hours, and I posted a video on X where Jack, my then eight-year-old son, is actually doing a fundamental analysis of Spirit Airlines with me. You have to see it. This is incredibly funny. You know what? I will simplify the task for you. I'll play it for you in a minute, okay?

21. I think it's worth your taking a look . But first, I really want to focus on this employment report and what this employment report means and what it does n't mean. First, look, the jolts in the ADP report, they suggest that this employment report should be okay. So, I think Treasury yields have already reflected that it's probably going to be either advertising expectations or an employment report higher, but we haven't gotten QCW wage revisions and we won't for quite some time.

22. Remember, we got views up to March in August. Okay, it's five months later to actually get views. You won't get views for , uh, you know, for example, September, until, uh, you know, five months after that period, which is around February or March of next year. This is a bit crazy. So JPOW already recognizes this, and it recognizes that the labor market is likely to be a leading indicator of economic hardship, not through the employment report, but rather through individual data.

23. They actually stated themselves that they consider individual data more important than employment reports. Even if the employment report is important tomorrow, the market will trade on it. Don't get me wrong, the market will move wildly. But they look at individual data, and when they see this ISM report that says, you know, ISM services employment fell again to 48.1, for the third month in a row, that's what they pay attention to.

24. And when they see the job cuts in the challenger categories higher than expected, when they see the report on the number of jobs in the challenger categories as terrible as it was, these are the things that worry JPAL. Remember the three warnings he gave us? I actually compiled a list of such recession indicators on e-hack.com.

25. But in any case, he gave us three really important warnings . One warning was that the labor market is a better predictor of recessions than GDP. The second is that we must take into account that revisions take some time. We have already considered these discussions. But then, you know, he also gave us this weird pause about whether 50 would lead to a soft landing, and I think that really shows his concern about the job market.

26. So this employment report, I know I don't have much faith in this employment report, even though I know the markets are going to move wildly based on it. This is what I need to truly become optimistic. To truly become optimistic, I need to see these profits. First of all, we need to get rid of these other stresses.

27. We already know that we are getting rid of these other stresses, but then we see the profits of the companies. And I'm not really concerned about third quarter earnings. I am interested in forecasts. And if all the companies report and they all say, “We are growing so much. We are back to hiring. We are back to hiring.

28. We are back to hiring. We are back to hiring ." Fantastically. In September, I don't know what it is , but in September it's very common seasonally to see a pop-up in the employment report, uh, or sorry, in the Jolts report on vacancies. These pump pop-ups seem to happen regularly in September . But what concerns me is that, you know, after you've got this in anticipation of a potential strike at the port, temporary or long-term hiring, or new orders, uh, or something like that.

29. So, you have stocks before the strike at the port. I understand that the strike at the port is now over, but have you potentially artificially moved a bunch of demand to September and now potentially find yourself in a hole right before the election? And what will that do to the layoff plans for January?

30. Overall, not so much. November, December, maybe, but people want to get through the holiday spending season, and then layoffs come. So I don't think we're out of danger. Uh, and my point is also that when you look at someone like BCA research, this is the same company that told us that investors' ability to allocate cash is at an all-time low right now .

31. Households and investment firms, which make up the majority of money markets, are actually the same as companies that have access to this capital. But look at this. They say a recession is imminent and that is driving tech stocks down, as is the Nifty50. Good. Well, it might be a little parabolic and extreme, but that's okay.

32. I'll simplify this a bit, because I'll start by saying that the coupon is valid until tomorrow, right? Visit meetme.com. You will receive live analysis for my course participants, and we will have Q&A sessions together. This is really great. Come by before the coupon expires at 11:59 p.m. This always adds value.

33. The goal is that whenever you have a question about something, you can always reach me in these live streams for course participants. We love to chat there every day. Thank you. By the way, Jeff, I see I just signed up for the platinum subscription. Kenneth signed. Todd, Timothy, thank you very much for participating.

34. I am very grateful to you. And to everyone else who has joined us in the last day or so. Thank you very much. Okay, let's start by remembering that you get lifetime access. You pay when you get forever. This is a great deal on Kevin.com. Recession is inevitable and favorable. Okay, what are they saying here?

35. The rise and fall of Nifty50 stocks in the 70s is a cautionary tale for investors in the Magnificent 7 fanaticism. Nifty50 was essentially about a bunch of stocks that generated pretty crazy returns. Magnificent eh 7 may not be the reincarnation of Nifty50, but investors can learn from past manias and panics.

36. And they point to what's happening now with a cautionary tale and a warning about groupthink, which, frankly, has made a lot of these companies , specifically targeting Nvidia, a little rich. They say that the phenomenon of the 1970s may not be an accurate blueprint for what is to come. Um, but when you combine index weighting, regulatory oversight, valuations, and the current state of the economy, they seem very bearish, especially considering they think and expect an imminent recession.

37. Now, I, I just want to be very clear about my perspective on the recession. I think that if there is no shock in October , the probability of a recession will decrease. If it's in February, maybe March 1, then we'll probably have a soft landing. So one of the problems that I have as an investor, and I think it's always important for everyone, is to look at yourself and say, "Hey, what's your problem with investing?" One of the problems I have is that I see trends really early and I just start really early and then sometimes they still have a hard time getting through and then they do really well , right?

38. I am not guaranteeing or saying that this is always the case . I'm just saying that sometimes, you know, it's like, okay, you bought the dip, and it's like, wow, it keeps going down. Sometimes this happens to an investor, and then a question arises, and you think, “Oh, okay. Yes, I haven't reached the perfect bottom, but this is where, as I said on the channel, I've become more optimistic because of these trends and new orders, I also want to be cautious and take into account this increase in demand.

39. And I have absolutely no idea how much of this demand growth has occurred compared to other years, where some of the data we may get for September can be very distorted, and it artificially creates the impression that the economy is stronger than it actually is. I'm not trying to sound like a bear, because I think I could say that all the time.

40. It's like, "Oh, the data is good. Well, then they must be wrong." I think it just sounds like an exhausted person. But we knew this strike at the ports was coming since June, and I think a lot of companies saw this as a really big problem. 50% of the goods and services coming into the country are delayed because of these port strikes, and, you know, port strikes, workers go back to work on Friday.

41. So you'll have five days of downtime or something. Uh, and they're only taking a break until January, and then I think they want to continue negotiating, but since they have a deal and you know everything's fine at the moment, it looks like they'll be back to full swing. But anyway, you know, what worries me the most is what if the recession does happen, but a little later than expected.

42. That is, right now the markets seem convinced that the market will go up immediately after the election, because, frankly, that's usually the case. Okay, great. So what happens if everyone buys before the election, and then after the election people say, "What does this mean?" and the market goes down towards the end of the year because people are taking profits or doing something else , I have no idea, you know?

43. It's all like a crystal ball. But at some point, the risk is layoffs, and the trend for companies, the leading trend for companies, is to hire less, not more. So while the employment report tomorrow is important, I don't think it can completely turn me into a bull. Now, if we get a really good jobs report in early November and we get really good guidance from companies, in other words, you know, we get third-quarter earnings, and then companies say, "Dude, fourth quarter is already looking great." Because remember, we're already in the fourth quarter, right?

44. So most of the gains will happen, you know, in two to three weeks, four weeks, two to four, two to five weeks of the fourth quarter. So they'll be asked at the earnings conference, "Hey, how are consumers doing?" How are things in macroeconomics? How is the economy doing? If they say: " This is something like summer, we are getting worse." I'm going to ...be a bear.

45. You know, right now I'm probably at level 4.1 on the "naked bull" scale. If those profits come in and they say, "Dude, this is a lot better than the summer." We don't know what happened in the summer, but everything is better. Inflation has decreased. We sell more. This is great. Maybe it's officially time to reverse positions.

46. So, uh, and believe me, I really want to turn the tables. I just want to be very honest with you. Uh, when you're a bull, everyone loves you because you tell everyone how things are going to go up. When you're a bull and everything is going down, everyone loves you too because you tell them everything is okay.

47. But when you're a bear, everyone hates you. When things are going well, it's because you're the opposite. And when things go down, people hate you because you make money and they lose money. So being a, uh, bear is extremely difficult. Uh , I just...I just can't help myself . You...You can view my list of recession indicators at e-hack.com.

48. I broke them all . Well, anyway , I promised to show you a video clip about Jack. So, I'm going to do this, uh, after, uh , I'll just quickly mention, uh, if you're interested in wealth consulting, we think we've come up with a better phrase: wealth strategist and, uh, financial concierge. That seems like a long name.

49. We had to come up with a better name. Maybe you could leave a comment with a better one. But a wealth strategist and financial concierge. This is roughly who we consider ourselves to be. And we think so because we do much more than just advise on stocks. I mean, right ? For example, today I was talking to a team about people, you know, and they own businesses, or, you know, they have social media brands, or they have product companies, or they want to sell a company, or they want to sell a lot, or they want to solve a code problem, or something like that.

50. Like all of these things combined with trying to solve all of these problems with taxes, stock splits, diversification, retirement–it's so much. And so we really do all of this, and we really enjoy it. So thank you to those of you who, uh, signed up for stockhack.com, and the name should probably be something more inclusive, but whatever.

51. Uh, check it out on stockhack.com if you're interested. Uh, sign up for a free introductory call to see if this service is right for you . And, uh, with that in mind, let's listen to the amazing Jack and his commentary on Spirit Airlines now switching to BK. And I'll hide while we do this. Do you know who Spirit is?

52. Wait, Jack, tell us who Spirit is. Very bad airline. Why? What makes her so bad? She's just like that. She's just like that. OK. Yes. What color are the planes? Yellow. Wow. OK. OK. OK. Well, let's see. Uh, you want to see if they make money? I already know that it's not. How do you know that? YouTube.

53. Um, let's find out for sure. Um, operating income. So, how much money did they make? Okay, let's look at this. Operating income is here. Do you see this number? Mmm. So, uh, it's in the thousands, which means you actually need to add three digits to that . Isn't this madness? So, do you know what this number is ?

54. This is how much money they made, for example, from tickets , food sales, and the like. Um, is that 1250? Ha? I understand this number. Yeah, that's a pretty big number, dude. So that's a thousand. That's a million. That's a billion. So they make a billion dollars. They, they raised $1.2 billion. Do you know how much they spent?

55. Let's find out. All of this. All of this. Dude, you're a comedian, dude. Um, Jack, you're wrong. They didn't spend it all . They spent so much. Wait, which number is higher? Again? Wait, isn't that higher? Yes. If only we had Jack at the helm instead of politicians, we could have a balanced budget. Anyway, thank you very much for being here.

56. Good luck to everyone. Good luck with the employment report tomorrow. See you later. Goodbye and good luck. I can't promote what you've what happens. Greetings, friend. . Although to evaluate a securities k, be sure to read the ppm at houseack.com.