저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 피터 시프는 연준이 실제 금리 인상을 할 수 없으며 향후 금리 인하와 양적완화로 갈 것이라고 주장한다. 연준 전망: 연준은 금리를 올리겠다고 말하지만 실제로는 인상할 능력이 없고, 경기 둔화로 오히려 인하 쪽으로 간다는 입장이다. 정책 완화는 이미 시작됐다고 본다. 증시 및 브렉시트: 최근 주식 랠리는 브렉시트 이후 중앙은행의 부양 기대와 저금리 지속 때문이라고 설명한다. 시프는 여전히 약세 톤을 유지한다. 채권 버블: 채권 버블이 곧 터질 것으로 보며, 자신의 채권 펀드가 부진한 이유는 채권을 거의 보유하지 않기 때문이라고 주장한다. 과거 예측 논쟁: 2015년 말 금리 인상 전망 논쟁에서 자신이 가장 근접했다고 주장하며 진행자와 충돌한다.
다듬은 글
let's go ahead and move on to the fed and bring in Peter Schiff he is the CEO of Euro Pacific Capital thanks so much for joining us Peter you know of course the FED kicks off that two-day meeting today what do you expect the FED to do and how do you expect the dollar to move as a result I I don't expect the FED to do anything I think the only thing they do do is talk and the question is are they going to still be talking as if they're planning on raising rates or are they going to change their rhetoric uh to suggest that they're not even thinking about raising rates at this point I don't think they are I think they're they're thinking about cutting rates and doing more quantitative easing the question is are they ready to let the markets know that yet and I don't think so and so are you making any moves to position yourself ahead of what you think the FED will or won't say well I'm I'm not adjusting my positions I mean my positions have been that the FED has been bluffing and I think that they're finished in I think the easing campaign already started the minute they started to push back the expectations of when the next rate kites would happen because see a lot of people are worried that the FED doesn't have any ammunition to cut rates because they only raise them by a quarter point and they can only cut by cut once and then you know they're at zero I think what they're going to do to ease monetary policy going forward is adjust their rhetoric so they'll start you know talking about not raising rates as soon then they may admit that they no longer have a bias to tightening maybe they have a neutral bias then they can say they have a bias to easing and so by the time they actually cut rates they may have already delivered several rate Cuts before then so it gives them a little bit more room to work at least I think that's what they're thinking is very interesting okay we understand you're hanging on to your bearish tone like it seems you often are but we've had a nice rally and equities what do you think has been the momentum behind the rally that we've seen for stocks well I think it was the brexit I think when brexit happened and all of a sudden central banks started talking about more stimulus more QE and I think it was the brexit that really took the FED out of the game to the extent that anybody still believed that they were contemplating a rate hike brexit basically took all that off the table and I think that's what caused the rally was the idea that hey this is all good because it means all this extra uncertainty around the world means more cheap money and the the markets Rose for that reason there's been so much that's happened even since the brexit vote it's hard to believe that was just about a month ago Jim I believe you've got a question here for Peter Jump On In Peter Peter I actually agree with you that I don't think they're going to tighten this year the part I don't agree with you and I want to comment on is that every time I hear them talk it's like they're begging and pleading with the market to allow them to Titan I really think they want to Titan but I don't think the windows ever open and I don't I think they want a Titan for all the wrong reasons I think they believe that rates have been too low for too long and that has sort of somewhat of a corrosive nature to it do you genuinely believe they go to bed at night turn off the light and say to themselves when is the earliest I can start to talk about an easing yeah I I I don't think they want a Titan but they want the markets to think that they want a Titan because they don't want to let that cat out of the bag they see they don't want to pretend that it's a pH recovery no but they they actually did they did it one quarter point tiny they they've set us up a few different times why would they continually talk about it if at the end of the day want to ease is there something I'm missing it's it's it's the opposite of Teddy Roosevelt you know he used to say speak softly but carry a big stick but when it comes to rate hikes the FED has no stick so all they can do is speak loudly and hope nobody notices the absence of a stick so they want to keep talking about all the the rate hikes and how they're going to raise interest rates but the last thing they want to do is actually do that because then the whole economy will implode and then the markets will realize the box that we're in so instead they keep positioning as if they're about to raise rates but then they keep coming up with one excuse after another why they're not going to do it meantime they've been making up excuses for so long the economy has basically relapsed back into recession we're either there or on the doorstep of one and I think had the FED already raised interest rates a few years ago they would be cutting them right now based on how weak the the economy is Scott you're sitting there very politely but I know you want to jump in well I just Peter I you know last year you were on on our show and you said not only that they wouldn't raise rates but they couldn't raise rates then they raised in December and now our stock market is at all-time highs why are you right now when you were so egregiously wrong before well I wasn't egregiously wrong uh because remember if you go back to late 2014 let me let me finish when when if you go back to late 2014 the consensus among most of the people that came on your show was that by the end of this year year the FED will have raised interest rates between six and eight times I said they wouldn't raise them at all and it's going to turn out that they raised them once so I was far closer to being right by saying they wouldn't raise rates at all than all the other experts who were saying oh six times seven times eight times you you go back and think of all the rate hikes that people thought were going to happen I knew that the FED couldn't raise rates the fact that they did one trivial quartero rate hike and then backtracked and took them all off the table proves that I was right because they said they couldn't raise interest rates without crushing the markets they raised interest rates the markets got crushed and the only reason the markets rallied back was because they stopped raising interest rates which is exactly what I said Peter you said they couldn't they did they actually responded raes once Market you asked me to let you finish you asked me to let you finish so you let me finish you said they couldn't raise rates they raised last December between the time that they raised and the end of the year things actually went really well if there was a problem between the first of the year in Janu and February 11th it had nothing to do with the fit it had to do with the Chinese instituting these really ill conceived poorly thought out don't hey poorly conceived uh ill ill-considered uh circuit breakers and then once those left once they canceled those our Market has rallied beautifully so you said they wouldn't raise rates you said they couldn't raise rates they did and our Market is at all Time Heist so because because they didn't ra because they stopped look this is what's ridiculous how many people came on CNBC and said oh the FED is going to raise the rates three or four times in 2015 three or four times in 2016 everybody was off by a mile I was the closest one who have come on on your network in the last few years nobody nobody got closer to me than how many rate hikes we would have I said zero and we got one everybody else was so far out of the park the fact that they stopped at one proves exactly what I was trying to say that they couldn't raise rates and the fact they thought that they backed themselves into a corner because they waited until December there were people who thought they were going to raise rates in March in June and September they were wrong all year I was the only one that was right I kept saying they won't raise they won't raise they won't raise and finally to try to save some credibility they did a trial balloon they did a quarter point face saving rate hike Demarcus fell apart and then they immediately backtracked and that's it and I still believe and I said this in December of last year that the next move by the FED is going to be an a cut and raate and so we'll see what the next move is because I still think the next thing the does is cut rates not raise them again Peter I I have one more question because you're let me ask one more question Coury because Peter says he's the most precient guy on CNBC Peter my question then is well that's a low bar Euro hang on hang on the europacific fixed income mutual fund is 300 basis points behind underneath underperforming it's Benchmark every year since its Inception 300 basis points that's double what somebody would get in the 10 years Hold On by by putting if if that you are so preent then how come your performance is so brutally bad okay so if you look at my value fund I'm beating my Benchmark by 40% year to dat it's the number one fund out of like four or five 00 funds so I'll tell you why my bond fund is underperforming because I don't own any bonds it's a bond fund that has no bonds because I don't want to participate in the bond bubble so when the bond bubble bursts my bond fund is going to be number one so the reason it's lagging is because I don't actually own any bonds all I have is very shortterm uh you know debt in foreign currencies but if you look at my Equity my gold fund was the number hold on look my gold fund was the number one fund this year my my value fund my dividend payers fund is I think number one or number two mutual fund in its category this year so you're picking the One Fund that's lagging and you're ignoring all the other funds that are number one and I tell you the only reason it's lagging is because I don't want to expose my clients to the biggest bubble ever in the bond market and when the bond bubble collapses and everybody else loses money the people in my funds are going to be sitting pretty or at least thank you so much Peter we really do appreciate you joining us a lively conversation as always we do appreciate and understand your view you should put up the graph put up the graph of all my funds that are R rated number one thank you so much really do appreciate we appreciate you coming on and we will look into your performance we do appreciate it Peter ship there of Euro Pacific Capital and the only reason the markets rallied back was because they stopped raising interest rates which is exactly what I said Peter you said they couldn't they did actually responded they raed rates once the market you asked me to let you finish so you let me finish you said they couldn't raise rates they raised last December between the time that they raised in the end of the year things actually went really well if there was a problem between the first of the year in January and February 11th it had nothing to do with the fit it had to do with the Chinese instituting these really ill conceived poorly thought out don't hey poorly conceived uh ill ill-considered uh circuit breakers and then once those left once they cancel those our Market has rallied beautifully so you said they wouldn't raise rates you said they couldn't raise rates they did and our Market is at alltime highs so you because because they didn't because they stopped look this is what's ridiculous how many people came on CNBC and said oh the FED is going to raise the rates three or four times in 2015 three or four times in 2016 everybody was off by a mile I was the closest one who have come on on your network in the last few years nobody nobody got closer to me than how many rate hikes we would have I said zero and we got one everybody else was so far out of the park the fact there or on the doorstep of one and I think had the FED already raised interest rates a few years ago they would be cutting them right now based on how weak the the economy is Scott you're sitting there very politely but I know you want to jump in well I just Peter I you know last year you were on our show and you said not only that they wouldn't raise rates but they couldn't raise rates then they raised in December and now our stock market is at all-time highs why are you right now when you were so egregiously wrong before well I wasn't egregiously wrong uh because remember if you go back to late let me let me finish when when if you go back to late 2014 the consensus among most of the people that came on your show was that by the end of this year the FED will have raised interest rates between six and eight times I said they wouldn't raise them at all and it's going to turn out that they raised them once so I was far closer to being right by saying they wouldn't raise rates at all then all the other experts who were saying oh six times seven times eight times you you go back and think of all the rate hikes that people thought were going to happen I knew that the FED couldn't raise rates the fact that they did one trivial quartero rate hike and then backtracked and took them all off the table proves that I was right because they said they couldn't raise interest rates without crushing the markets they raised interest rates the markets got crushed so they'll start you know talking about not raising rates as soon then they may admit that they no longer have a bias to tightening maybe they have a neutral bias then they can say they have a bias to easing and so by the time they actually cut rates they may have already delivered several rate Cuts before then so it gives them a little bit more room to work at least I think that's what they're thinking is very interesting okay we understand you're hanging on to your bearish tone like it seems you often are but we've had a nice rally and equities what do you think has been the momentum behind the rally that we've seen for stocks well I think it was the brexit I think when brexit happened that all of a sudden central banks started talking about more stimulus more QE and I think it was the brexit that really took the FED out of the game to the extent that anybody still believed that they were contemplating a rate hike brexit basically took all that off the table and I think that's what caused the rally was the idea that hey this is all good because it means all this extra uncertainty around the world means more cheap money and the the market Rose for that reason there's been so much that's happened even since the brexit vote it's hard to believe that was just about a month ago Jim I believe you've got a question here for Peter Jump On In Peter Peter I actually agree with you that I don't think they're going to tighten this year the part I don't agree with you and I want to comment on is that every time I hear them talk it's like they're begging and pleading with the market to allow them to tighten I really think they want to tighten but I don't think the windows ever open I don't I think they want to tighten for all the wrong reasons I think they believe that rates have been too low for too long and that has sort somewhat of a corrosive nature to it do you genuinely believe they go to bed at night turn off the light and say to themselves when is the earliest I can start to talk about an easing yeah I I I don't think they want a Titan but they want the markets to think that they want a Titan because they don't want to let that cat out of the bag they see they don't want to pretend that it's a pH no but they they actually did they did it one quartero tiny they they've set us up a few different times why would they continually talk about it if at the end of the day they want to ease is there something I'm missing it's it's it's the opposite of Teddy Roosevelt you know he used to say speak softly but carry a big stick but when it comes to rate hikes the FED has no stick so all they can do is speak loudly and hope nobody notices the absence of a stick so they want to keep talking about all the the rate hikes and how they're going to raise interest r rates but the last thing they want to do is actually do that because then the whole economy will implode and then the markets will realize the box that were in so instead they keep positioning as if they're about to raise rates but then they keep coming up with one excuse after another why they're not going to do it metime they've been making up excuses for so long the economy has basically relapsed back into recession where either let's go ahead and move on to the fed and bringing Peter Schiff he is the CEO of europacific capital thanks so much for joining us pet you know of course the FED kicks off that two-day meeting today what do you expect the FED to do and how do you expect the dollar to move as a result I I don't expect the FED to do anything I think the only thing they do do is talk and the question is are they going to still be talking as if they're planning on raising rates or are they going to change their rhetoric uh to suggest that they're not even thinking about raising rates at this point I don't think they are I think they're they're thinking about cutting rates doing more quantitative easing the question is are they ready to let the markets know that yet and I don't think so and so are you making any moves to position yourself ahead of what you think the FED will or won't say well I'm I'm not adjusting my positions I mean my positions have been that the FED has been bluffing and I think that they're finished tightening I think the easing campaign already started the minute they started to push back the expectations of when the next rate kites would happen because see a lot of people are worried that the FED doesn't have any ammunition to cut rates because they only raise them by a quarter point and they can only cut by cut once and then you know they're at zero I think what they're going to do to ease monetary policy going forward is adjust their rhetoric
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