저자: JimStewart · 외국인
요약 보기
버핏 관련 이야기와 경기·시장 전망을 다룬 인터뷰로, 명확한 대상 자산에 대한 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측은 나타나지 않음. 주택 경기: 주택 지표(신규 주택 건설·주택 매매)는 최근 약했지만 금리 하락과 주식시장 회복으로 반등 가능성이 있다는 언급. 주택 섹터는 많이 침체된 상태로 보임. 버핏 투자 환경: 가치투자 기회가 여전히 존재하지만 12월 고점 대비 주가가 낮아진 상황에서 대형 딜이 무산된 점이 언급됨. 다나허의 GE 관련 인수 사례 언급. 경기 불확실성: 정부 셧다운, 주식시장 변동성, 무역 불확실성으로 약한 지표가 나왔으나 일시적인지 장기 둔화인지는 불명확하다고 봄. 중국과의 무역 합의, 주식시장 안정, 저금리 지속 시 문제들이 일시적일 가능성이 높다는 쪽으로 기울어 있다는 견해. 크래프트 하인즈: 브랜드 기반 경쟁우위에 대한 의문과 SEC 회계 조사 이슈가 버핏 모델의 약점으로 지적됨. 경영진의 정직성을 중시하는 버핏 원칙과 충돌 가능성 언급. 회사 주가가 하루에 크게 하락한 점은 충격적이라고 평가. 출연자 전망: 전반적으로 경기와 시장 상황이 '꽤 괜찮아 보인다'는 낙관적 톤이나 특정 자산 방향은 명시하지 않음.
다듬은 글
he has a great window into what housing is doing and will do perhaps what you make of he does I mean I the we know the numbers have been very weak lately which surprised me a little bit in January because suddenly the Stars seemed to align you know we had a nice stock market recovery through the mod simultaneously interest rates going down that's a prescription for a boost and new home construction and and and residential sales that we just haven't seen it yet so I think that is that's a little surprising but you know this looks to me like this isn't this is buffett terrain there's some if you're looking for values out there the housing sector looks to me like one that's pretty depressed given in theory it should start picking up so you think it may be the the challenges of finding something to buy or not as great as he makes it seem well I've been wondering about that I mean we all know that at any given moment something is a bargain out there and he is a value investor stocks are reasonably hot they're not as hot as they were at their peak certainly December if you're a value investor I would have thought might have opened up some interesting possibilities I know he said that he had a big deal inside that didn't come together maybe that was kind of based on some some attractive valuations in December but you know we see the day Danaher found something that they thought was a good buy from from GE a company which Buffett knows very well because I wondered will he look at that you know what was why wasn't that an attractive proposition so I think the deals are out there if you you know if you have the guts to step up to other I wonder how murky the data is right and we're getting a GDP read that's been delayed later this week we obviously had a string of weaker than expected numbers last week when we had this government shutdown we had all that volatility in the stock market all of this trade uncertainty I just I wonder how much of it is temporary and how much of it you know is potentially a sign that we're gonna see some longer-term weakening here in the US I mean do you have any sort of inkling or gauge when you when you look across your universe well I think one of the key questions that you hit upon or all the things that you mentioned temporary or longer-term and we still don't know about that they could be temporary we got a you know a China deal if we get a stability in the stock market and maybe even hitting new highs if we get continued low interest rates like that then those problems are all going to be temporary those are all very positive both for economic growth for future earnings and in turn for investors and for the stock market the and I think we've been tilting towards the idea that they are temporary which is one reason why the stock market has done as well as it has but it's worth remember we don't know yet for sure and once we do know for sure it'll be too late because that then we'll all be baked in to the stock prices so you have to just make some intelligent bets here my own gut feeling is things are they're looking pretty good does the craft episode reveal certain liabilities in Buffett's model I think so I think too glaring ones first which you know quite a few people have talked about is his his idea of what's the competitive advantage what's the mode around this company which is always its consumer brands and he's a big believer in the power of the brand I don't know we've got a new generation coming up here I don't think you say the word kool-aid and they like you know run to the refrigerator it's some of these things are getting pretty scale I'm not sure that all brands are created equal coca-cola maybe almost unique unique category so I think the brand strategy is in question and he's kind of acknowledged that secondly more fundamentally you know the Kraft Heinz is now under investigation from the SEC for potential accounting irregularities and when Buffett wrote in his letter that he's seen many issues like this over the years where management decides so let's just tweak the numbers it's one time and then we'll catch up the next quarter well that is the road to ruin from any companies and of course he didn't say anything about just being Heinz crap but I wonder in the back of his mind is he worried about something like this and again we don't know yet all we know is that they're looking but that goes to the question that he's always put so much importance on which is the integrity of management he has always said the only one invited in invest in companies that are not only well-run but that are ethically run where because of the character of the people in charge you don't have to worry about something like this and it seems to me at the very least he's got to be worrying about this and wondering about what horses he put his money on there didn't quite verbalize it today but we'll see how is it thinking of also how the whole story of all I think that's gonna be a lot more beyond that and is a fascinating story if you could see a stock of a company like that drop that much in one day is a shock you
댓글 0