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Although the price of oil actually fell, things went really badly in the stock market. When the oil plunge helped us move away from the lows, the Dow Jones closed down 132 points, the S&P fell 0.17%, and the Nasdaq fell just 0.09%. The 30-year Treasury bond rate is at its highest in 24 years, a formidable competitor for stocks.
Although bond prices have still bounced off the daily lows as buyers, I think, are starting to think that weaker data is in store for us. Maybe it's time to expect a quick rate cut. Stocks need this. Dude, over 50% of the S&P 500 stocks are trading below their 200-day moving average, the worst market breadth since March.
More stocks in the S&P 500 are updating 52-week lows than highs for nine consecutive days. Only 1% of the index is at its 52-week high. 204 stocks fell 20% from their 52- week highs. In other words, over 40% of stocks in the S&P are in a " bear" market. Plus, there's the extraordinary story of the IPO of Oura, that popular health ring.
It was re-signed four times. Not good enough for management, which prefers to wait for a better moment. They blame market conditions. But the Nasdaq 100 index is only 1.3% below its all-time high. Could there be better market conditions? Okay, we have some slowdown in the strangest places. I enjoy reading these Federal Reserve reports on certain key regions.
Take the Dallas Fed report, which has the headline: “ Growth in Texas’ service sector activity has stalled.” End of quote. It goes on to say: “The income index, a key indicator of the state’s service sector, fell eight points to minus 0.9, with a reading close to zero indicating no change in activity from the previous month .” End of quote.
If things are weak in Texas, one can only guess how bad it could be in the other 49 states. The consumer confidence data released today is the worst in a decade. However, rates continue to rise . I think that could change if oil stays low or falls further, but I understand that people have been saying this wrongly since the bond sell-off began .
When I say we are losing the narrative war, I mean that something has changed with the AI and data center contingent, the biggest growth story of our era. The market has been holding onto these topics for what seems like an eternity. But now, looking at the seating chart at today's lunch with the president, which includes Jensen Huang from the world's largest company, Elon Musk, the world's richest man, Jeff Bezos, the founder of Amazon, and many other wealthy people, I think, "Oh no." I mean, who would dare say that this is a bunch of bigwigs feasting at the expense of those who lost their jobs because of AI?
Or oligarchs who are ready to kill us for higher earnings per share. A year ago, I would have thought that these are people who represent the best that we have. But now the critics, not me, but the critics are saying, "I quote, here are the people who want to sacrifice your work for higher profits." End of quote.
18 months ago, people might have said that these executives were employing tens of thousands of people by building data centers. Now we're thinking: " How much did they raise electricity prices?" How much water did they spoil? "How many towns have they just fooled?" Oh, and of course, the worst possible narrative shift occurred.
Two of America's most exciting companies, Anthropic and OpenAI, are now openly admitting that their products are dangerous to society. We hear that the document that Anthropic is preparing for a potential IPO is full of dire warnings, such as that Anthropic could cause mass death or the extinction of humanity.
The company could present, and I quote: “ existential threats or fundamental destabilization of global systems.” End of quote. Wow, can't wait to buy shares in this deal. More than 80 pages of the 261- page document are devoted to risks. Meanwhile, OpenAI is looking to raise $30 billion at a $1.4 trillion valuation—$600 billion more than its previous round, despite holding back on the new iteration, ChatGPT 6/ 6.1, due to the risks it poses, yes, to society.
How is this possible? Simply. The culture turned against these people and their products, and supporters were unprepared for such a reaction. They don't know what to say. Even though there is no empirical evidence— as far as I can tell—of jobs lost to AI, it has yet to demonstrate any real productivity gains.
We know that many leaders are now saying that overcoming an existential threat is a task that can be solved by engineering methods . Extremely smart people like Jensen Huang, George Kurtz from CrowdStrike, Nick Arora from Palo Alto Networks, he was with the president today. Top managers from Octa. They all proposed serious solutions that silence the proponents of the AI apocalypse.
It doesn't matter , because when the CEO of the most valuable private company, Anthropic, clearly states that his business could potentially destroy us all, it's hard to salvage anything. Listen, I'm not an apocalyptic pessimist. You know, I'm optimistic about AI, but companies need to start telling better stories.
Tonight we have Dina Powell McCormick, she's the president of Meta, to show the positive side. Thank you for being here. You know, a lot of people are focused on affordability and how they pay for everything , and your report talks about the growing number of households covering their expenses through investments.
Tell me a little more about that. This is true. Um, I think a lot of people feel that because the stock market is going up so much, it must be somehow related to consumer spending. But many people don't understand what households, families like yours or mine, are doing. And that's one of the really great things about our data—it allows us to see in detail what's happening to ordinary families.
So we analyzed investment accounts to see how much money is being withdrawn from them into checking accounts, from which people spend money, to better understand this issue. We discovered two very interesting things. First, the frequency of withdrawals and the amount of money coming from these accounts to cover expenses nearly doubled between 2019 and 2026.
And secondly, we found very important differences in who receives this money and who uses it. This phenomenon is most noticeable among older families and people with higher incomes . It's interesting that you mentioned people with higher incomes, as they would seem to be the ones most likely to have the investment returns that are driving this trend.
But does this data also show a generational trend? Yes, that's true. You rightly point out that people with higher incomes, of course, have extra money to contribute to retirement accounts. Before we begin, please subscribe to the channel. And if you need deeper stock analysis that is designed for members, join our membership to receive premium analytics.
once again force market boom really last? Because the fundamentals were very $54.23 billion versus the expected $51 billion. So, both revenues and profits turned out to be higher than expected. But the most forecasts . This is the stability of the cycle. The market has already seen Micron demonstrate extraordinary growth.
So investors are asking not only whether this quarter was good. They ask if it can remain successful for another year, two years, pproximately $61.5 billion in revenue next quarter. At the same tim. Reported adjusted gross margin for the fourth quarter was approximately 87%. And ain topics of discussion among investors.
But there is an important detail here. Lower gross margins do no. If the change is due I systems, investors may interpret it differently. The bigger question is what's happening with memory pricing. And according to analyst comments in this discussion, prices are still rising, and while it may be happening more slowly than before, the direction remains important .
That's why this earnings report is really about memory cycle length. significant losses when supply exceeds demand. So investors are naturally asking, " What will ultimately end . When producers increase changes. But this time, there is a major factor that could change the equation: AI. The amount of computing infrastructure being built for AI continues to expand.
And each new accelerator requires not only a processor, but also increase significantly. And so the growth of NVIDIA, hyperscalers, and AI infrastructure companies directly affects Micron. The more data accelerators . And now another level has appeared— generative AI. Traditional chatbots can answer questions .
She can continue working on multi-step tasks. And this creates significantly higher activity in the area of conclusions. And inference requires for more than just learning and emotions. The amount of computing required to actually run key the traditional semiconductor cycle.
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