저자: LearnWithPRT채널진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
워런 버핏 지표(시가총액/GDP)가 현재 미국 213%로 역사상 최고 수준이라 미국 시장이 극단적 고평가 상태라고 주장. 인도는 약 133%로 적정~고평가 구간이며 아직 극단적 고평가는 아니라고 평가. 미국 폭락 시 인도 시장도 영향받을 수 있다고 언급. 분산투자와 소액 분할 투자(SIP)를 권하고, 큰 금액은 신중히 투자하라고 조언. 시장 폭락 시점은 예측 불가하다고 명시. 비트코인·이더리움 급등을 언급하며 주의 권고.
다듬은 글
Guys, look here, this is NASDC, and NASDC is still open today. Now NASDC is an index of US tech companies. Let's look at SNP 500 in this way, basically what I want to show you, you are going to enjoy it a lot. It is still up today and the US market has been rising rapidly for the last six months. Now that the market is going up, should you invest in the US market at this time ?
There are many ETFs and mutual funds in India too through which you can invest in the US market. But then I was looking at the Warren Buffett Indicator today and I saw something shocking that I thought I should tell you about. First of all, if you go to the Buffett Indicator, you will see that the US market is extremely overvalued at this time.
The current value of the Buffett Indicator is 213%. Now when did this 213% last appear in history? Never. This is the first time in history that the US stock market is at 213%. But you might be wondering how to derive this formula? So the formula of this Buffett Indicator is very simple, that is, we divide the total stock market valuation by GDP.
So if we divide the valuation of the US stock market by the GDP of the US, then the value of this Buffett indicator will come out, which is currently coming out to be more than 200%. Now look at this graph below, this is a historical graph which shows that whenever its value has increased a lot. Now look at this 200%, I will show it to you below because when I was looking at this data, this was shocking.
When the dot bubble hit in 2000, the valuation of the Buffett Indicator was still in overvalued territory. Even when the Lehman Brothers collapsed, the Buffett Indicator indicated that the market was overvalued. And even at this time this indicator is indicating that the US stock market is overvalued.
But you will say, friend, what do we have to do with the US market ? We have to do with the Indian stock market. What is the value of the Buffett Indicator in the Indian stock market ? So I Googled it and according to Google the Buffett Indicator for India is around 133%. But what does it mean? 133% what?
See, if this indicator is telling that the value of Buffett indicator is less than 86% then the market is significantly undervalued and in history also whenever the market was significantly undervalued, that was the time to buy. Look at the graph that I just showed you here, see here when the market comes in the undervalued territory, that is the time to buy, from there the market gives a good bounce back, from there you get an opportunity to invest money in the market, but when the market is between 86 to 111% then it is moderately undervalued, from 111% to 135% the market is fairly valued, when the value of this indicator comes from 135 to 160% then the market is moderately overvalued and if the value of this indicator is more than 160%, it means that the market is significantly overvalued.
Meaning you should avoid new investments. If you are expecting very high returns from the market then this is not the right time. So if you look at this value on July 28, the day I am making this video, the value of the Buffett Indicator of the US stock market is coming out to be above 213%. This means that we have to be conscious.
Now the valuation of India's stock market is 133 or 23, so what should we do? Meaning, should we invest in the Indian stock market ? Yes, you can definitely do it. But if the US market collapses, it has a domino effect. Meaning, an effect is visible on the entire market. If the US market collapses. It is not necessary that if the US market collapses, India's market will also collapse.
But yes, there is a correlation that if there is a crash in the US market, then the Indian stock market also cannot survive. So what should you do ? You should invest wisely. Definitely, if you want to invest within the US, you have multiple ETFs in India. If you have mutual funds then people think that US is better than us.
We will invest there. There is no problem with diversification. But if you are investing a big amount then do SIP, make small investments, but if you are going to invest a big amount then you should invest carefully at this time. You can invest in the Indian stock market. This is still an opportunity for you.
The Buffett Indicator on S shows that our market is still not in extremely overvalued territory. So if you want to invest in the Indian stock market at this time, then you can go and open your demat account for free. You will find the link in the description and the pin in the comments. Do you think there could be a crash in the market ?
If it can come then what will be the reason for it? Look, we never know. We cannot anticipate when the crash will come? But yes, the markets are currently at an all-time high. If you look at Bitcoin and Ethereum, they are growing rapidly. But you have to be cautious because if any negative news comes then it can definitely have an impact.
So what do you think, can there be any significant crash or correction in the coming days? And if it can come then what will be the reason for it? Please do tell me in the comments. Finally, you can share this video so that people know that the markets are not in undervalued territory at this time and the US market is extremely overvalued.
People should know. So please share this video. I will see you in the next video. Till then subscribe to the channel. Click on the bell icon. Yugo Self Meet, and Jai
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