저자: RoaringKitty · 외국인
요약 보기
게임스탑(GME) 랠리가 거래량 증가에 따른 모멘텀 현상이며 실적보다 거래량이 가격을 움직인다고 주장. 피보나치 되돌림 저항(3057, 3694)을 언급하며 거래량 감소로 하락 가능성을 시사. 거래정지(halt)는 주문장부 얇음에서 기인하는 제도적 장치라고 설명. 공매도 세력이 큰 손실을 봤고 추가 상승 여지가 있다고 봄. 고점 대비 옵션 변동성 확대 가능성, CPI·PPI를 주요 촉매로 지목. 숏 포지션은 위험하다고 경고.
다듬은 글
well what a morning it was roaring kitty is back not just with the pump on GameStop which boy let me tell you about what's going on with those halts on the market because those are freaking crazy but folks you need to look closely at this he's got a video game controller and he's gotten a little bit more engaged this has led to a remarkable pump in GameStop stock but not just that just about 24 minutes before the filming of this video uh we had this this here of a black screen that all of a sudden turns into Marvel movies of enthusiasm and the Roaring Kitty growing his claws as the Wolverine you'll see that in a moment but this sort of cinematic effect was really seen by many as a way to shout out AMC as well in participating the rally I'll do it myself as the cover then you get uh this sort of shocked look by the suits right the suits freaking out oh my gosh there's the Roaring Kitty oh no the suits are going to get burned here comes the kitty with the claw coming out from volverine uh this has led to some incredible uh price action in uh well frankly the sticks let's take a peek at what's going on here and I want to talk some risks and some of some some of the details that are going on uh first let's go to gme and you really have to understand the Fibonacci retracement lines are are key here I teach this in my stocks and site group uh the cours coupon expires in two days you know the drill CPI day okay so we set this like weeks ago it's just convenient that this is around this time lot of people getting into trading now so we've seen a lot of new members join but something that you have to pay attention to is first you need to have your Fibonacci retracement lines drawn now what did I draw them to am I going to draw them to the 400 plus number no of course I'm not going to draw them the 400 plus number what are you going to draw them to you're going to draw them to the peak of the market what was the peak of the market we going to draw them to the peak of right here this peak November of 2021 those are the fibs that are in play right now none of the other fibs none of the 400 stuff none of that is in play right now these are what are in play and I covered this live this morning you could see us basically live talking about these sticks and when we broke out the thought was we could break 3057 and get then get to 3694 which is exactly what happened and as soon as we got rejected at 30 6.94 we ended up at the 3057 line now we're trading under it with declining volume which is not great if you are trading these you have to have to be very careful of a few different things number one declining volumes will hurt you on the upside always the way you get momentum stocks to go up is volume goes up you need the mainstream narrative to end the day today at 1:00 uh California time 400 p.m.
eastern time that the suits are getting getting burned uh Wall Street bets is back retail Traders Are Back Robin Hood stock will go up gamestock AMC cost uh maybe byd maybe Alibaba you know some of the traditional OG uh uh momenta movers will come back Lemonade's going up on nothing 18% today that company is out of freaking money they've got $300 million and more bills than they have actual cash to cover it uh you know they're they're still losing money every single month I love the company but I can't they're uninvestable to be why are they up they're UPC they're up 19% because of the momentum Can you short it no because the fundamentals aren't what matter here what matters is volume that's all it is volume is the fundamental driver here not the actual earnings reports now something else you have to be very careful of is if you're playing options uh volatility goes up extremely high when you get this sort of run uh and these are the average candlesticks here are the non- average you can see the gaps talk about halts in a moment and the manipulation of the S the the suits but something that you really have to remember is this coupon expiring is going to be a big price increase on Wednesday so make sure after CPI PPI you join before 11:59 you had all my buy sell trade alerts we've been green for quite a while now we've been doing really well we had a 500K win on Tesla we had another 50k win thereafter I don't always win and I don't promise that we're always going to win who knows maybe we'll hit a red streak but knock on wood we've been doing really well and if you want to see exactly how I'm hedging the market going into CPI PPI consider joining the courses before rather than after the CPI PPI data comes out uh in that Wednesday expiration but look when you're looking at options let me just give you an example okay so this morning I was looking at the $30 calls on gme they started at about $3.30 they ran all the way to about $12 during this hype now they started at $3.30 over here we're still well above that now but we're down to about $585 now so you've really gone from like a 4X to like a 70 80% up which is still good you know that's that's great if you bought those calls at open you're still up but the point is your most substantial movement in an option price if you're buying it comes from volatility going up and that comes with momentum so if you're trading this I I I mean I hate saying this phrase but the fundamentals of the earnings reports and what they're selling does not matter what matters is the volume and when you get a bleed out in volume the price will bleed down always I mean not guaranteed you know hashtag and don't sue me bro but you it generally always bleeds down now what about volume uh and Holtz okay so this is something that's heavily misunderstood okay okay these are the halts that we had today GameStop times between halts so it opened and it got halted after 5 minutes 46 seconds then it was halted for 5 minutes it was open for 138 halted again open for 156 halted again 23 seconds 26 seconds 24 seconds 24 seconds 2 minutes 13 seconds 2 minutes 22 seconds now it's obviously open again and a lot of people look at this and they rightfully so they look and go oh my gosh this the suits are are ruining uh the momentum and and to some extent this is true I'm going to explain why that is true to some extent uh and then I'm going to explain why it actually happens so let's take a look at this so what you have to understand is stocks trade with an order book so basically on one side let's say I have you know 10 people and each of them are like I want to buy or I'm just going to do five people here just to keep this simple for me I got five people who want to buy a th000 shares of gme and I'm just going to on this side I'm going to write buy okay that's what I want to buy uh and and this is basically what people are bidding okay it's kind of like on eBay when you hear bid think eBay bid buy okay uh and then ask is the sell uh you know these are obviously the spread between the prices the bid and the ask but this is generally what the seller wants again think eBay so I'm just going to write sell so if I have five people that are each like I need a th000 shares of gme At Any Price Market Market let's say currently it's trading for uh $25 and I get people throwing in Market orders because that's what people do when they're freaking out and they want to buy the shares you know this person's going to set a limit for let's say $27 limit uh this person's going to go limit at $28 I don't know this person's going to go for a $30 limit okay let's say I have no sellers what happens if I have zero sellers nobody wants to sell GameStop stock what happens to stock nothing it doesn't move because there is no transaction there is no last price to report because there's no transaction now what happens I'm just going to go crazy here okay to be extreme to make the point what happens if a seller comes in and says I'm going to sell one share at $40 and it's just one shair is the $30 limit going to execute no is the $28 limit going to execute no is the $27 limit going to execute no is the $1,000 Market order going to execute that depends is this an All or Nothing trade okay you could check the little box on your brokerage and let's say that's an all or nothing well there's only one share available so that will not trade if if it's all or nothing because obviously I can't fulfill a th000 chairs I can only fill one chair let's say the other one is not all or nothing well this person is going to get one share that fills so this is going to go down to an order book of $9.99 and one share is going to trade at $40 well now all of a sudden and again I'm doing this to be extreme like an extreme example here but this is roughly how it works now the last reported price is $40 it was at $25 so all of a sudden the market moved up $15 on one share that's obviously not sustainable but let's say another share gets put out at $50 another one share now and then the same person executes right now the last price is $50 it's up another 25% woo okay that it's not a real Market because you don't actually have a balanced Market what you have is one share changing the price for everyone's valuation and everyone's share which is great if you're a buyer in this case is bad if you're a seller but remember the same goes in reverse when prices are falling the same is true in Reverse so how did stock exchanges try to solve this remember an exchange change is just the place where the buyers and sellers meet right so stock exchanges tried to solve this with the Lo okay what does that stand for Limit Up limit down basically when a stock trades for let's say $25 what they'll do is they'll create a limit up and they'll say we have a band at $28 and we have a band at $22 and we will accept trade within those bands so we're here we'll accept trades within this highway see it even looks like a highway we'll accept trades in this highway okay as soon as you get that one share that trades above 28 within a specific time frame you know X number of minutes or whatever as soon as you get one share that trades above that 28 within that specific time frame because of a thin order book this is an example of a thin order book you get what's known as a halt think about it like the traffic cop showing up saying whoa whoa whoa whoa hold on hold on what's the point the point of halting is simply to say all right we got one seller at 40 you enter in a hold and you try to create a balanced Market can you get 1,000 shares being sold at 29 can you get a th000 shares being sold at 31 then the halt uh is lifted and then all of a sudden what happens well now you could actually see the buyer at a $30 limit right here this buyer can get matched with this uh this 31 can match over here with this guy or potentially the other one depending on which was entered earlier and you still have that $1 so you can get some of these trades that go through but then that $1 one potentially throws you out and gets you into another halt so the whole point is to try to create more balance between the buyers and the sellers that's the whole point of the halts now obviously if you have a halt on the way up and you're waiting for more sellers to come in obviously that limits the movement to the upside so yes the rules of the game do limit this the movement to the upside in a thinly traded Market they do also limit the downside though in a thinly traded declining market so the benefit works both ways now obviously this is where then we wonder but what about like the suit shorting GameStop Yes Yes uh you're at about well as of this morning you were at about 25% of uh a float that was short you know short sellers lost like a billion dollars on uh GameStop today it was crazy and they might lose more because when this story goes mainstream you could continue to see a a movement to the upside on uh both GameStop but also AMC AMC moving up quite nicely as well 32% on the day because of the gme movement very good rivan's also up about 10% lemonade still holding on to 6% 16% rather this is very common that you get this sort of momentum movement now is it the broker dealers that are ripping people off like is it the Robin Hood the Vlad the Impaler of stocks is it you know wee or whatever that's halting no usually who makes these rules are either the NYC NASDAQ uh or dtcc uh and these entities are basically operating as what are known as SRO or self-regulatory organizations they're basically authorized by the secc to keep markets orderly so these entities create the rules that the broker dealer have to follow and that's where you get you know Robin Hood that gets hosed because the rules and the formulas hose them now you know does that mean you know that Robin Hood wasn't sitting there and trying to encourage the short sellers to win because they make money from Citadel and Kenny G gave him a not going down that direction at all that's that's not what we're saying at all simply saying that these rules are established by these entities broker dealers have to follow them could there be biases in other directions from the suit of course but I find it very interesting that uh today we had this pretty remarkable Fibonacci retracement pattern here and I would highly encourage you watch volumes volumes today obviously very high the highest we've seen we're at 95 million of volumes but go back the past you know month basically before this the highest volume you got was on earnings of about 17 million shares traded but otherwise you were sitting at 1.5 to3 million shares 1.5 to3 million shares no volume Vol no volume no volume no volume all of a sudden you start getting volume volume 36 million 48 million 24 million 25 million boom 95 million could that volume continue sure absolutely especially as this gets more and more mainstream media attention more people make videos about it uh so we'll see it's very exciting to watch and uh you know I'm excited to play it as well so I'm I'm personally watching I I I have a very hard time uh ever encouraging that anybody goes short on these I think that is the perfect way to absolutely get hosed and creamed and destroyed and and wrecked uh obviously they're going to be are like no I I want to go short I mean I'm I'm looking at a $30 uh puts and uh $30 puts in like the last maybe hour uh in this mostly sideways trading as soon as we had a candle here I looked at the $30 puts they're trading for about seven bucks and there's not a lot of liquidity on them well since then we've come down quite a chunk more more and you're at maybe $730 so cool you at like a four or 5% move on a very very risky trade nah that's not that's not very delicious uh calls right now pretty expensive as well I'd like to see the volatility chill a little bit but that volatility could explode again over the next few days obviously we'll be watching it very very closely CPI PPI will be a huge Catalyst huge Catalyst I'll be covering those obviously extremely closely uh and I will also be sending before CPI and PPI comes out I'll be sending out an exact strategy for what I'm going to do as CPI hits so when CPI hits people will know who are in the stocks and pych group what I plan to do uh double down sell uh you know go long whatever it is I'll have a plan before cpii and then once CPI PPI comes out we'll execute probably at Market open unless we get uh you know a certain direction and it makes sense to actually hold hold it who knows what that references from now engage the reversing engines I don't know why that one's been stuck in my head for so long anyway uh so look buckle up this is going to be an absolutely crazy week we could literally have uh CPI and PPI come in soft if they come in soft GameStop could actually moon on a good CPI read so vle up this is going to be a really really fun week now make sure to subscribe and make sure if you're not part of the market live Channel yet you're part of that as well so we got the main channel here and then Market live I go live every day the market is open uh with rare exceptions and uh we'll see you there soon thanks so much have a good one
댓글 0