저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 빌 애크먼의 넷플릭스 손절은 단순한 고점 매수·저점 매도 패닉이 아니라, 예측 가능성을 잃었기 때문에 가치투자 원칙에 따라 나온 판단이라는 해석. 사건 개요: 애크먼은 2022년 1월 약 350~409달러 구간에서 310만여 주를 매수했고, 4월 약 130달러 부근에서 매도해 약 4억 달러 손실을 기록했다고 언급됨. 구독자 흐름: 2022년 1분기 약 20만 명 감소, 2분기 약 100만 명 감소로 2.2억 명 수준, 3분기 240만 명 증가로 회복. 발언자는 한두 분기 실적만으로 판단하기는 어렵다고 봄. 애크먼 서한 해석: 넷플릭스 경영진에 대한 신뢰는 유지한다고 밝혔고, 광고 요금제 등 사업모델 변화가 장기 구독자 성장·수익성·자본 집약도 예측을 어렵게 만들었다고 설명. 핵심 문제는 실적 악화가 아니라 예측 가능성 상실이라는 점. 교훈: 발언자는 이해하지 못한 투자 대상을 계속 보유하면 가치투자자가 투기자로 바뀐다고 주장하며, 판단이 틀렸다고 느끼면 실적 악화 여부와 무관하게 빠져나오는 것이 원칙이라고 강조. 리스크/조건: 해석은 영상 제작자의 관점이며, 주가 전망이나 매매 권유가 아님. 영상은 2023년 1월 게시 기준 과거 사례 분석. 출연자 전망: 애크먼은 넷플릭스가 여전히 우수한 기업이라고 본다고 서한에서 밝혔다고 소개했으나, 영상 자체의 종목별 가격 전망은 없음.
다듬은 글
hello my fellow investors I want to present here a very valuable lesson for value for Value investors on Bill eckman's next Netflix trade I don't think Netflix or black need any presentation so let's just get through the story back in late January headphone manager Bill Ackman to Netflix stock price plunger as a 1.1 billion Bank opportunity so Wednesday nosedive with a stack falling 30 in early hours which is the question is he hunkering down or doubling down so what was the story whenever Ackman is doing he certainly took a substantial hit following the company's first quarter earning report when next week's revealed it had lost 200 000 subscribers and the first three months of the year and expected to lose 2 million more this quarter exactly how big a hit He took is a nucleus number when Ackman revealed their purchase he didn't say what he paid but he did note that he bought more than 3.1 million shares between 20 and 21st and January 26 when the stock was in was in the 351 to 2 4 to 409 range so you don't know the exact number the exact price he paid for the stock but we know that he bought it um in between these dates at the uh somewhere in between this price he later on the next quote he sold it so let's just see here um somewhere over here this is this a chart of Netflix some over here he bought the stack uh we're here in January in this around these days he bought the stack after it went down from 700 more or less he bought it around 380 400 some over here the next quarter on somewhere between April 20 somewhere over there he sold the stack so he bought over 3.1 million Stacks it's reported that he lost 400 million dollars so that means he sold he sold the stack for loss of around 130 per share right three million shares 100 loss per share would make it 300 million dollars 300 and 1 million shares sorry 3.1 million shares would be somewhere somewhere around 130 per share he lost so I was waiting to see uh what's going to happen afterwards and to analyze this whole story was a bit all over the news everyone was speaking about it or making fun of him and I wanted to see I said I'll wait let's wait a few quarters let's see what's going to happen and let's analyze this whole thing so this is the 10K from 2021 and we can see over here the Netflix uh paid membership and Atlanta period so this all these numbers are in thousands so in the end of 2021 they had 221 million subscribers or memberships the way they call it and he bought it over here somewhere after I know exactly when he bought a bit in January so this is more or less but he was uh what he was seeing the next quarter this is the 10K for the next for March 2022.
so they uh Netflix and the last thank you from March 2020 2022 they reported a loss of 203 000 subscribers so when that to 221 Global memberships and some over here in April around April 20 he sold the stack at a loss what happened afterwards this is the 10K from June 2022 they reported another loss of almost a million subscribers went out to 220 million subscribers and the next thing this is the last 10 queue from September 30 2022 they gained 2.4 million subscribers so and we were seeing as if this whole trade was a classic by high sell low like a panic trade like you sold it because he didn't know what's going on he didn't like the numbers he just sold the stack right away after a quarter of he bought it 400 million dollar loss he could have waited on the numbers would have gone bad would have gone back up everything would have been good it doesn't uh fit a great value investors this was a kind of a mistake because one quarter two quarters have bad numbers you saw the stack so I'll I actually was trying to look into it I read his annual letter why when he bought the stack why he bought it he praises the company's management he explains everything why he likes a stock okay very nice and good what was the reason he sold it and I think this is a very very valuable lesson for Value investors and and I think that's why it's such a great investor Blackman so this is his letter to the shareholders on why he sold the stack so this is from April 20 2022.
dear person Square investors today we sold our investment in Netflix and he continued on to explain why he sold it while we have a high regard for Necklace Netflix management and the remarkable company they have built in light of the enormous operating leverage inherent in the company's business model changes in the company's future subscriber growth can have an outsized impact on our estimate intrinsic value in our original analysis we viewed this operating leverage favorably due to our long-term growth expectations for the company yesterday in response to continued disappearing disappointing customers subscribing both Netflix Netflix announced that it would modify a subscription only model to be more aggressive and going after non-paying it sorry customers and incorporate advertising and approach their management estimates will take one to two years to implement while we believe these business models changes are sensible and it's extremely difficult to predict the impact on the company's long-term subscriber growth future revenues operating margins and capital intensity we require a high degree of predictability in the business in which we invest due to the highly concentrated nature of our portfolio while Netflix business is fundamentally simple to understand and out of recent events we have lost confidence in our ability to predict the company's future prospects with sufficient degree of certainty based on Management's track record we would be we would not be surprised to see next we could continue to be a highly successful company and an excellent investment from its current market value that said you believe the dispersion of outcomes has widened to a sufficient large extent that is challenging for the company to meet our requirements for core Holdings so I think this is a major major important lesson for Value investors he doesn't say that he lost faith in the company's management he doesn't say he thinks the company's outcome will change he has no problem with what the management is doing his problem is that he requires a high degree of predictability and he sees that he can predict the company's future the way he thought he could in the beginning so basically what he's saying is we thought we understood the company we thought we understood the industry and that's what we based our investment upon now that we see that we can't predict the company's future and we can predict uh the future of the industry whatever it is he's selling his stake in the company and I think this is very very important for Value investors to understand you have to know what you're getting into and something changes in the future doesn't mean anything if you think you're wrong then get out of your um get out of you whatever you bought if it's a long or short whatever it is that's the mistake wasn't that the company lost a membership subscribers the mistake was in his in his Viewpoint that he didn't understand the company the way he thought he understood it and if you didn't understand the company the way you thought it the way he thought he understood it then his old has taken the company if you would have thought that he understood the company right he wouldn't have cared if the company's memberships went down that's not the issue the issue is he thought he understood it and now he sees that he doesn't understand the company and I think that's a very very important value lesson for a value investors understand it's not what the company goes up or goes down if the stock goes up it goes down if the numbers are good if the numbers are bad if you thought you understood on something and you see you didn't understand it then get out of it it's not where you get that's not why you got into it the first time basically when a value investor gets into position and he sees he didn't understand the position where he thought he understood it in the beginning if he continues to hold his um position in that investment he's turning himself from a value investor into Speculator if I investor buys value and as long as it sees the value in the investment okay so you value investing but if you don't understand what you're doing anymore so now you're turning into a Speculator and that what value investors do when they realize they made a mistake they get out right away maybe they could make a lot of money waiting another quarter too that's not the issue he says himself that he believes the company will be a great company in the future his mistake was I didn't understand the company I'm getting out of this position I think that's a great very important lesson for Value investors thank you very much and hope you enjoyed this video now if you like this video don't forget to smash the like button and to subscribe to the channel thank you very much
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