저자: PeterLynch · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 성장주·경기순환주·턴어라운드·자산주 등 주식 유형별로 다른 접근이 필요하며, 어떤 유형이든 가격이 적정할 때만 좋은 투자가 된다. 성장주: 연 25% 이상 성장하는 기업이 이상적이며, 성장 초기(야구의 2~3이닝)에 매수하는 것이 유리하다. 매출·이익의 빠른 성장과 재무상태표 점검이 필요하다. 예: 월마트(상장 10년 후 30배), 마이크로소프트(상장 3년 후 20배 이상), 슈피리어 인더스트리(100배 이상). 저성장·안정주: 연 3~15% 성장하는 기업도 싼 가격이면 좋은 투자다. 예시로 주당 10만 달러에 연 5만 달러 이익을 내는 기업은 PER 2배로 2년이면 원금 회수가 가능하다. 장례업체 서비스콥 인터내셔널은 연 15% 성장하며 좋은 성과를 냈다. 성장이 멈추는 '무성장'이 가장 큰 위험 신호다. 확인 신호: 꾸준한 이익 성장, 매년 오르는 배당, 성장 여력(남은 확장 공간) 확인. 경기순환주: 경기에 따라 이익이 크게 오르내린다. 이익이 최악에서 평범으로 개선되거나 평범에서 양호로 바뀔 때 수익이 가장 크다. 경기 전망만으로 타이밍을 잡기는 어렵고, 현금흐름이 좋고 부채가 낮아 불황을 버틸 수 있는 기업을 골라야 한다. 크라이슬러(1990년 주당 10달러 부근, 이후 회복)를 예로 들었다. 턴어라운드: 실적이 크게 악화된 기업이 회생하는 경우다. 희망이 아니라 실제 증거(신제품, 경영진 교체, 비용 절감 등 내부 개선 및 실적 반등)를 확인한 뒤 투자해야 하며, 12~24개월 생존 가능한 현금이 있는지 확인해야 한다. 크레지(K마트)는 50배 이상 상승했다. 자산주: 재무상태표에 드러나지 않은 숨은 자산(부동산, 브랜드, 특허, 라이선스 등)이 주가에 반영되지 않은 경우다. 디즈니(캐릭터 라이선스, 토지)와 코카콜라(브랜드)가 예시다. 1987년 드레이퍼스는 주가가 주당 현금보다 낮게 떨어졌다. 부채를 뺀 현금보다 싸면서 사업이 괜찮은 기업은 '공짜나 다름없는' 투자다. 리스크 조건: 부채 과다, 현금흐름 불안정, 성장 정체는 모두 파산 위험으로 이어질 수 있다. 출연자 전망: 특정 대상 자산에 대한 1~3개월 방향 예측 발언은 없고, 장기적인 투자 원칙만 제시했다.
다듬은 글
when most people think about investing in stock market they dream about investing in a fast grower a company that is growing at over 25 percent a year at 25 a year a company's profits will double in three they quadruple in six up eightfold in nine years that's how you get a huge stock in a decade there's not a lot of these but they're very powerful and the best part is you don't have to catch them just as they're taking off the beauty of growth companies is you have plenty of time if they're going to grow for 5 10 20 30 years you don't have to be there the first year the second year you could about walmart 10 years after they went public made 30 times your money what makes a company grow earning so quickly either it is a rapidly growing industry or it's a rapidly growing company in a slow growth industry rapid revenue growth and rapid earnings growth are the hallmarks of a fast grower you just can't buy any stock with hot earnings and hot sales you have to check the balance sheet make sure the company can keep growing one way you can look at growth companies is think of baseball a normal baseball game has nine innings you should look at a growth company and say i don't want to buy it when they're in the first inning i want to buy it when they're in the second or third inning they've got the formula right they get lots of room to go so you want to say yourself this is a company that's very early in its cycle like a mcdonald's when they're only in a few stores or limited when they're only in 100 stores and they had lots of malls to go to microsoft was a company you could have bought three years after it went public and made over 20 times your money sales and earnings were growing at several times the rate of the companies in the s p 500 in an industry that was exploding by leaps and bounds and it had a lot of potential both overseas and domestically this was only the beginning of a 15 to 20 year growth cycle you had plenty of time to get involved this amazing company called superior industries i think the stock went up over 100 fold they were very good at making aluminum wheels a lot of car companies went to aluminum wheels the industry for autos wasn't growing aluminum wheels growing dramatically and they were the best at it the fast growers get all the attention in the media but there's nothing wrong with slow growing stock provided you get it at a very decent price some would say to you i'm gonna sell you a business for a hundred thousand dollars and they're earning fifty thousand dollars a year you say what's the bad news let's say the bad news the earnings are never going to grow they earn fifty thousand dollars a year forever so this is a price earnings multiple of two you pay a hundred thousand dollars fifty 000 earnings but they're never going to grow you say i don't care i'm going to get a 50 000 return every year in two years i get all my money back and i'm gonna make fifty thousand dollars a year on my 100 000 investment forever so sometimes even if a company has a very low growth rate in earnings if the stock is selling at the right price it may still be a very good deal a slow to moderate grower will have earnings growth of three to fifteen percent a year one company that i was very lucky with was service corp international it's a funeral home company that bought up local family funeral homes a very steady business service corp could grow earnings at 15 a year when i owned it with very little problems a slow goer that turns into a no grower is a very bad news situation so when you start researching to the stock look for these signs steady earnings growth you can find annual earnings growth rates in the research section as well as estimates for the coming year rising dividends companies that raise their dividends each year have to have the earnings to do so a rising dividend is normally a good sign for a stock room to keep growing you want slow growers to go on forever that's one reason i like service corp international so much this was a great stock for me in the 1980s at that point it had a long way to go cyclical companies rise and fall with the economy typically they make expensive big-ticket items that people buy when the economy is good things like houses cars and furniture when economy is bad and people are worried about losing their jobs they don't buy big ticket items they're too broke or too scared that they will go broke don't try to time a cyclical stock if you don't have intimate knowledge of the business if you don't have an investor's edge everyone on wall street tries to time cyclical stocks too because the stock market looks forward you could be left with a sinking stock even though the company's earnings are terrific you make your best money in a cyclical when earnings go from rotten to mediocre or from mediocre to pretty good the danger point is when earnings go from great to spectacular somewhere between these two points wall street will figure out there's only one way to go and that's for profits to go down some point in the future just don't buy in the hope wait for things to get better prices to get better capacity to shrink inventories to go down scrap prices to get better something ought to be happening so you just want to wait for something really to happen and then when it happens it's going to be big let's take a look at chrysler in 1990 the company was selling for ten dollars a share the economy was lousy people were talking about chrysler going out of business but guess what the economy came back everyone's old car was falling apart as people made more money they started buying new cars and because chrysler had great products the minivan the jeep and its first new full-size truck in 20 years the stock was big in addition very importantly the balance sheet was decent in 1990.
this was not a company about to go bankrupt if it's a cyclical you're hoping for a dramatic turnaround on earnings it's going to happen over two or three years earnings gonna go from a loss to a huge profit stock's gonna go up and you're gonna get out make sure you're picking a strong company that can survive when the cycle goes down that means good cash flow and low debt if its cash flow is spotty or its debt is high and the downturn comes the company faces the danger of going bankrupt turnarounds these are stocks that are battered down for their hated companies or they've been forgotten about they're depressed in price but you've determined some one thing or a few things that have the potential for reversing this company's fortunes independent of the industry getting better with the economy getting better you always have to do a balance sheet check on any company this includes turnarounds do they have enough cash to make it through the next 12 months the next 24 months do they have a lot of debt that's due right now these are important questions to answer make sure you understand and believe in the plan to restore corporate profits it's all internal they're doing something either new product new management cutting costs getting rid of something something inside the company that allows them to improve themselves lots of turnarounds never happen but a few winners can make up for lots of losers what's important is to wait for the actual evidence of the turnaround occurring not just the symptoms the turnaround you had plenty of time so just don't buy on the hope wait for the reality turnarounds are so big it's worth waiting to get some real evidence ss kresge was a company going nowhere in real trouble they invented the kmart formula they rolled it out across the country the stock went up over fifty fold kmart became a massive stock sometimes two and two equals eight how could this be because a company has a hidden asset that isn't reflected in the stock price when wall street wakes up to the hidden assets the stock could be terrific one a great example let's look at disney walt disney is an example of an asset play after they opened up disney world and after they'd opened up epcot the company's growth rate sort of slowed down they weren't growing very fast and then they discovered there's a lot of assets inside the company there was the name walt disney they started the disney channel they started selling things that they sold at disney world into disneyland they started selling them everywhere they use their licenses for mickey mouse and all their characters made a fortune on that these are on the books for nothing the company was loaded with assets in addition they had all that land inside of disney world and everybody had hotels outside disney world they decided to use their land inside to develop more parks and even have other companies come in these companies paid their money to build inside of epcot or inside of areas of disney world so what are hidden assets many companies particularly old line companies companies been around 20 40 50 100 years or more have real estate holdings whose true market value is not reflected on the balance sheet in the annual report in many cases the hidden asset is the company's name and its reputation disney is one example of a company with a great name so is coca-cola that name can be a huge asset when the company rolls out a new product this name is carried at little or no value on the balance sheet whereas it is incredibly valuable companies like intel and att not only make great products but they have numerous patents for these great products as long as they have those patents no one can make the exact same product that's a tremendous aid in any business back in 1987 when the stock market had a major correction dreyfus fell to below its price of cash per share stock fell from over 50 to under 20 at that point was selling for less than its cash anytime you buy a stock at less than its cash after subtracting all debt and it has good business you're getting something for nothing
Comments 0