저자: 캐시우드 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 캐시 우드는 미국 경기가 시장 예상보다 더 가파르게 하강하는 hard landing을 예상하며, AI 등 혁신주는 비용 하락 덕에 장기적으로 성장할 것이라고 주장한다. 거시 경제: 부채한도 합의로 디폴트 공포가 해소되었고, 명목 GDP 성장률이 5~6%가 필요한데 현재 전년비 8% 수준이라 2분기 또는 3분기에 실망스러운 수치가 나올 수 있다고 봤다. 통화 유통속도가 더 가속하지 못하고 있어 가격이나 물량 중 하나가 꺾여야 한다는 논리다. 혁신주 및 AI: 나스닥 혁신주는 이번 약세장에서 IT 버블 붕괴 때보다 더 크게 하락했다. AI 학습 비용은 연 70% 하락 중이며 무어의 법칙보다 빠르다. GPT 모델 학습 비용은 2015년 8억 달러 추정, 2020년 약 500만 달러, 현재는 50만 달러 미만, 2030년 30달러 수준으로 예상했다. 엔비디아 매출은 직전 분기 -13%에서 다음 분기 +63%를 가이던스했다. 기업 전망: 하드 랜딩으로 가격 결정력을 잃은 기업들이 마진 압박을 받게 되고, 이것이 기업들의 신기술 도입을 가속할 것이라고 봤다. 혁신이 문제를 해결한다는 입장이다. 비트코인(BTC): 하락 채널 안에 있으며 20일 EMA(약 27,239달러) 아래에서 마감했다. 지지선 25,250달러 이탈 시 약세 지속, 채널 상단 돌파 시 3.1만 달러까지 상승 가능성을 언급했다. 기관 매수 부재로 가격은 박스권이다. 이더리움(ETH): 하락 쐐기형 패턴에서 반등 중이며 1,927달러 돌파 후 2,000달러 저항 재시험을 목표로 한다. 쐐기 재진입 시 하락해 쐐기 하단 지지선을 향할 수 있다. 출연자 및 리스크: 경기 하강이 예상보다 클 가능성이 주요 리스크다. 자막상 출연자 소속은 제목·설명란에 있는 ARK 기준으로 적었다.
다듬은 글
we went into a bear market and in some parts of the market an extreme bear market the likes of which we have never seen before. AI has captured the imagination of the world, consumers and businesses. Its velocity is not continuing to accelerate. Innovation solves problems. It always does.
Hello and welcome to Crypto Street. In this video, we are privileged to have Cathie Wood, the CEO of ARK Invest, who will share her valuable insights on AI investments and the U.S. economy. Today we will delve into the secrets of the future of Bitcoin. But before we dive in, let's take a look at the latest developments in the cryptocurrency market.
On June 2nd, the U.S. equities market experienced a significant rally, reflecting positive market sentiment. However, when it comes to Bitcoin and most major altcoins, we are currently witnessing subdued price action, suggesting a lack of buying interest from larger players in the market. Now, without further ado, let's begin our enlightening discussion with Cathie Wood.
We have a debt deal now that President Biden is going to sign. We're not going to have to worry about this until early 2025. They're taking this off the table for the election-year campaign season, and it makes sense. It's astonishing how fearful the market was of default. Credit default swaps on U.S. sovereign debt rose at their peak to 325. This is the price of an insurance policy against default, so it went up to 325, and within the last few days it's down to 10.
The fear out there was extreme, and the market is enjoying a relief rally associated with that fear going away. But we're seeing only an eight percent year-over-year increase, not the 10 to 11 percent we need to get the six percent, five to six percent nominal GDP growth. That is why we think we're going to see a harder landing here than many people expect. Velocity is not continuing to accelerate, and that means something will have to give in nominal GDP, either pricing, units, or both. So we would not be surprised to see nominal GDP growth on a year-over-year basis disappoint in the second quarter, and if not the second quarter, then certainly the third quarter. That is how we get a hard landing.
Bitcoin is poised for a new paradigm shift that could unfold in the near future. This expectation is supported by various indicators, including an Unchained metric that tracks holder behavior. In late May, this metric signaled a transition phase away from capitulation and toward euphoria. Market participants widely acknowledge that Bitcoin's price action has reached a critical stage, requiring a decisive direction to be established.
On June 2nd, BTC/USD traded near 27 thousand dollars following a seven percent decline in May. On the same day, the U.S. equities market experienced a sharp rally despite non-farm payrolls beating economist expectations and an uptick in the unemployment rate. However, this rally did not translate into positive momentum for the cryptocurrency markets, which remain range-bound according to Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz. The lack of institutional buying has contributed to the subdued enthusiasm in the crypto markets. Looking at historical data, Bitcoin's performance in June does not provide a clear advantage to either the bulls or the bears. Over the years there have been an equal number of positive and negative monthly closes in June. The question is whether buyers will defend the support levels and initiate a robust recovery for Bitcoin and select altcoins.
Now let's return to our discussion with Cathie Wood. Many of you know we think there's going to be a harder landing out there in the economy than most people expect, and we're beginning to see the stock market actually appreciating. Doesn't that seem inconsistent?
No. For the past two years, when it relates to innovation, and for all of 2022 for the broader market, we went into a bear market, and in some parts of the market an extreme bear market the likes of which we have never seen before. Innovation stocks were hurt more in this go-around than they were in the tech and telecom bust. Back then we were not ready for prime time in terms of these new technologies. The cloud didn't come about until 2006. AI's first big breakthrough, deep learning, didn't come until 2012, and then the Transformer architecture in 2018. The tech and telecom bubble happened because too much capital chased too few opportunities too soon. The technologies weren't ready, and the costs were prohibitive.
Well, now the costs are coming down to an extreme degree, and AI is a great example of this. The technologies are ready, just in terms of costs. If the ChatGPT model had been developed in 2015, it would have cost 800 million dollars to develop. It was developed in 2020, and it cost roughly five million dollars. Think about that: what a rapid cost decline. If it were developed today, it would be less than 500,000, and by the year 2030 that model would cost thirty dollars. So AI training costs are dropping at a rate of 70 percent per year. We've never seen anything like this. This is twice as fast, maybe more than twice as fast, as Moore's Law. We think the explosive growth opportunities will happen very quickly as well. Nvidia going from negative 13 percent revenue growth in its latest quarter, the April quarter, to guiding to a 63 percent increase in revenue next quarter gives you a sense of how quickly companies and consumers are scrambling to take advantage of this new technology.
So the conclusion is that we do think we're going into a hard landing, or let's just say a harder landing than most expect. We do think a lot of that is discounted, but it will be uncomfortable enough for companies who are losing pricing power and experiencing margin pressure. It is going to force them to adopt these new technologies faster than otherwise would be the case. Innovation solves problems. It always does, and we believe companies are going to be looking at a major problem, and that is margin degradation, which they will want to protect against.
Bitcoin has been trading within a descending channel pattern, and on May 31st it closed below the 20-day exponential moving average, the EMA, of 27,239. Despite this, the bears are struggling to maintain lower levels, and the bulls will attempt to push the price back above the 20-day EMA. If successful, the BTC/USDT pair could reach the resistance line, where strong defense from bears is expected. A price reversal from the resistance line would indicate a potential extension of the pair's stay inside the channel. It is crucial to monitor the support level at 25,250, as a break below it would indicate bearish control. A breakout and close above the channel would be the first sign of strength on the upside, potentially leading the pair toward 31 thousand dollars.
The bulls have successfully defended against attempts by the bears to pull ether back into the falling wedge pattern. This indicates the bulls' efforts to convert the resistance line into support. The ETH/USDT pair has rebounded off the 20-day EMA at 1,855, signaling a shift in sentiment from selling on rallies to buying on dips. The next objective for the bulls is to propel the price above 1,927 and retest the strong overhead resistance at two thousand dollars. However, if the price turns down and re-enters the wedge, it would invalidate this positive view and potentially trap aggressive bulls, resulting in a long liquidation. In such a scenario, the pair may decline toward the support line of the wedge.
Thank you for watching. We appreciate your support and engagement, and we value your insights on the future direction of the world of cryptocurrencies. Please share your thoughts in the comments below, and don't forget to like this video and subscribe to our channel for more engaging content.
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