저자: 워런버핏 · 외국인
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결론: 장기 가치투자 원칙(규율, 지속 학습, 좋은 기업 선별)을 강조하며 단기 가격 예측이나 특정 종목 매수·매도 권유는 없음. [투자 철학과 학습] 간단하지만 규율이 필요한 사업이며, 회계 이해와 소비자 관점이 중요하다고 설명. 평생 학습이 필수이며 이전 결론을 계속 수정해야 한다고 강조. 벤저민 그레이엄 방식은 시대 변화로 그대로 통하지 않아 좋은 기업을 합리적 가격에 사는 방식으로 진화했다고 설명. [규모와 방법론] 그레이엄 방식은 대규모 자금에 확장 불가능했다는 한계가 언급됨. 초기 펀드 규모는 약 1,200만 달러 수준. 좋은 사업을 찾고 안전마진을 확보하는 원칙은 여전히 가치가 크다고 평가. 기업재무 교육이 잘못된 공식에 의존하는 경우가 많다는 비판. [기술주 및 개별 기업 언급] IBM: 6년간 보유 후 기대에 못 미쳐 지분 약 1/3 매도(발언 내 언급). 종목별 향후 가격 방향 예측은 없음. Apple: 기술 제품이지만 소비자 제품 사업으로 보고 분석 방식이 다르다고 설명. 향후 전망은 불확실하다고 유보. 구글: 초기 광고 효과를 과소평가해 놓친 것을 실수로 인정. 아마존: 지분을 보유한 적이 없다고 언급하며 실수로 평가. [기타] 백화점 투자, 사업 확장 판단의 어려움을 사례로 설명하며 실패 사업을 피하는 것이 중요하다고 강조. 기술주는 우위가 없는 영역이라 피했다고 설명. [리스크·조건] 과거 판단 평가이며 미래 수익 보장 발언 없음. 자산별 1~3개월 방향 예측 발언 없음. [출연자 전망] 버핏·멍거 모두 장기 관점 견해만 있고 단기 방향 전망은 없음.
다듬은 글
what we do is not a complicated business it's got to be a disciplined business but it is it does not require a super high Q or anything of the sort uh and um there are a few fundamentals that are incredibly important and you do have to understand accounting and it helps to get out and talk to Consumers and start thinking like a consumer in many ways in certain and all of that but it just doesn't require Advanced learning and uh I I I certainly you know I didn't want to go to a college so I I don't know whether I would have done better or worse if I'd uh just quit After High School uh you don't read the books I read and all of that uh I think that if you run into a a few great teachers and they really change the way you see the world to some degree you know you're lucky and you can find them in you can find them in Academia and you can find them in ordinary life and I've I've been extraordinarily Lucky in having great teachers in including Charlie I mean Charli has been a wonderful teacher and you know the any place you can find somebody that that gives you insights into things you didn't understand before maybe makes you a better person than you would have been before you know you get that's very lucky and you want to make the most of it if you if you can find it in Academia make the most of it and if you can find it in the rest of your life make the most of it Charlie well when you found Ben Graham he was unconventional and he was very smart and of course that was very attractive to you and then when you found out it worked and you could make a lot of money with sitting on your ass of course you were an instant convert and and and so it still appeals to me actually I mean but the world changed before he died Bill Graham I mean I mean Ben Graham recognized that the exact way he sought undervalued companies wouldn't necessarily work for all times under all conditions and and that's certainly the way worked for us we gradually morphed into trying to buy the better companies when they were underpriced instead of the lousy companies when they were under pric and and of course that worked pretty well for us and and but and Ben Graham he he outlived the the game that he played personally most of the time he lived to see most of it fade away I mean just to find some company that's selling for onethird of its working capital and figure out it could easily be liquidated and distribute $3 for every dollar of market price lots of luck if you can find those in the present markets and and if you can find them they're so small that bercher wouldn't find them any use anyway so we we've had to learn a different game and that's a lesson for all the young people in the room if you're going to live a long time you have to keep learning yeah what you formerly knew is never enough so if you don't learn to constantly revise your earlier conclusions and get better ones you are I always use the same metaphor you're like a onelegged man in an ass kicking contest yeah if anybody has suggestions for another metaphor send them to me Graham incidentally one one point important Point Graham was not scalable I mean you could not do with really big money uh and when I worked for Graham Corp here he was the dean of all analysts and you know it he was an intellect above all others around that time but our the investment fund was $6 million and the and the partnership that worked in tandem with with the Investment Company also had about $6 million in it so we had 12 million bucks we were we were working with now you can make adjustments for inflation but and everything but it was it was just a tiny amount it wasn't it wasn't really scalable and and the the truth is Graham didn't care because he really wasn't interested in making a lot of money for himself uh so it had no reason to want to find something that could go on and on and become larger and larger and and the uh so the utility of chapter 8 in terms of looking at stocks as a business is of enormous value the utility of chapter 20 of about a margin of safety is of enormous value but that's not complicated stuff I finally figured out why the teachers of corporate finance often teach a lot of stuff that's wrong when I had some eye eye troubles very early in life I consulted a very famous eye doctor and I realized that his place of business was doing a totally obsolete cataract operation they were still cutting with a knife after better procedures event and I said why are you in the great medical school performing absolute obsolete operations he said Charlie it's such a wonderful operation to teach well that's what happens in corporate finance they get these formulas and it's a fine teaching experience you give them a formula you present the problem they use the formula it's you get a real feeling of worthwhile activity there only one trouble it's all boulder dash yeah whenever you hear a theory described as elegant watch out you I think that a life properly lived is a is just learn learn learn all the time and I think Berkshire has gained enormously from these investment Decisions by learning through a long long period every time you appoint a new person that's never had big Capital allocation experience it's like rolling the dice and I think we're way better off having done it so long and and but the decisions blend and the one feature that comes through is the continuous learning if we had not kept learning you wouldn't even be here You' be live probably but not here there's nothing like the pain of being in a lousy business to make you appreciate a good one well there's nothing getting into a really good one that's a very pleasant experience and it's a learning experience I have a friend who says the first rule of fishing is to fish where the fish are and the second rule of fishing is to never forget the first rule and and we've gotten good at fishing where the fish are yeah that's only metaphorically I I went to fish with Charlie there too many other boats in the damn water but but the fure still there yeah we we bought a department store in Baltimore in 1966 and there's really nothing like being an experience of trying to decide what you're going to put a a new store in a area that hasn't really developed yet enough to support it but your competitor may move there first and then you have the decision of whether to jump in and if you jump in that kind of spoils and now you got two stores where even one store isn't quite Justified uh how to play those games those business games uh is you you learn a lot by trying and and what you really learn is which ones to avoid I mean if you just stay out of a bunch of terrible businesses you're off to a very great start as far because we we've tried them all but you can really learn because the experience is a l like eating cockle burgers and it really gets your attention well we won't expand on that uh Andrew Ross sarin good morning Warren uh this question comes from a longtime shareholder who watch to tell you accosted me last night in the lobby of the Hilton Hotel H with this question Warren for years you stayed away from technology companies saying they were too hard to predict and didn't have Moes then you seem to change your view about technology when you invested in IBM and again when you recently invested in apple but then on Friday you said IBM had not met your expectations and sold a third of our stake do you view IBM and apple differently and what have you learned about investing in technology companies well I do view them differently but you know obviously when I bought the IBM started buying it six years ago I thought it would do better in the six years that have elapsed than uh it has and uh Apple i i i regard them as being quite different business I I think apple is much more of a consumer products business in terms of the in in in terms of sort of analyzing uh mols around it and consumer behavior and all that sort of things it's obviously a a product with all kinds of tech bill into it but in terms of laying out what their perspective customers will do in the future as opposed to say on IBM's customers it's a different sort of analysis that doesn't mean it's correct and we'll find out over time but they are two different types of decisions and and and uh I was wrong on the first one and we'll find out whether I'm right or wrong on this on the second but I don't I do not regard them as uh apples and apples and I don't quite regard them as apples and oranges but it's somewhat in between on that Charlie well we avoided the tech stocks because we felt we had no Advantage there and other people did and I think that's a good idea not to play where the other people are better but you know if you ask me in retrospect what was our worst mistake in the tech field I think we were smart enough to figure out Google Those ads work so much better in the early days than anything else so I would say that that we failed you there and we were smart enough to do it and didn't do it we do that all the time too yeah we were their customer very early on with with Geico for example and we saw I don't these figures are way out of date but I as I remember you know we were paying them 10 or $1 a click or something like that and anytime you're paying somebody 10 or 11 bucks every time somebody just punches a little thing where you got no cost at all uh you know that that's a good business unless somebody's going to take it away from you and uh so we were close up uh seeing the impact of that and incidentally if any of you don't have anything to do in your hotel rooms tonight just just keep punching Progressive or something and don't really do that the thought just happened across my mind but you know that is you you've never seen a business almost never seen a business like it where and and I think for lasc surgery and things like that I I think the Figures were you know 60 or 70 bucks a click with no incremental no cost so and I knew the guys I mean they actually designed their perspectives they came to see me and they a little bit after the original one when the went public a little bit after Burkshire even so I I had plenty of ways to ask questions or anything of the sort educate myself but but I blew it uh and uh we blew we blew Walmart too when when it was a total CCH we were smart enough to figure that out and we didn't yeah yeah figuring out execution is what counts anyway well and I could be making two mistakes on IB I mean the the you know it's harder to predict in my view uh the winners in various items or how much price competition will enter in uh to something like cloud services and all that it I will I I made a statement the other day which it's really remarkable and I was asked Charlie whether he could think of a situation like it where one person has uh built an extraordinary economic machine in two really pretty different Industries you know almost simultaneously as has happened from a standing started Zero from a standing start at zero with other with competitors with lots of capital and everything else to do it in retailing and to do it with the cloud like Jeff basos has done I mean I I I I I mean people like the melons invested in a lot of different Industries and all of that but he has been in the in effect the CEO simultaneously of two businesses starting from scratch uh that if you know Andy Grove used to use at Intel used to say you know think about if you had a silver bullet and you could shoot it and get rid of one of your competitors who would it be well I think that both in the cloud and in retail there are a lot of people that would aim that Silver B Jeff and he's done a it's a different sort of game but he's you know at the Washington Post he's played that hand as as well as anybody I think possibly could so it's it's a remarkable business achievement where he's been involved actually in the execution not just Bank rolling it of of two businesses that that are are probably as feared by their competitors almost uh uh as any you can find it's Charlie you can further thought well we're sort of like the melons old-fashioned people who've done all right and Jeff beos is a different species and we missed it entirely incident we never owned a sh of Amazon
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