저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
요약 보기
투자 성공은 팀이 아닌 개인의 독자적 판단과 강한 호기심에서 나온다고 강조한다. 남들이 격하게 반대하는 투자가 오히려 비대칭적 기회의 신호라고 주장하며, 2011년 워리어스 구단, 2012년 비트코인 투자 사례를 든다. 소액은 고위험 고수익(알파) 버킷, 대규모 자금은 합의가 있는 안전한 포트폴리오로 나눠 운용한다고 설명한다. AI는 생산성을 크게 높이는 가속기이며 비관론은 역사적으로 틀려왔다고 본다. 구체적 자산에 대한 1~3개월 가격 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
Chamath, to my audience, which are largely entrepreneurs and people who want to start a business in India, I think something that you have accomplished along the many things that you have done in life from starting at Facebook, which is now meta, to running funds, managing money, the thing I find most interesting, because I'm in that profession, is the investing bit.
You seem to have gotten so many calls right over the tenure of your career. Uh give us some lessons from that which are non-obvious. To be a very successful investor, you have to be extremely extremely single-minded. You need to come to your own conclusions. Uh you cannot have others help you. Uh it is not a team sport.
That is probably the single most important thing. Whenever I see teams of investors, I think these idiots are going to lose money. Or they're going to make a lot of noise and spend a lot of time and waste a bunch of people's money just returning the market beta. I don't find that interesting. That's not being a good investor.
You have to be really really really curious. And people say that a lot. The sensation that I can put my finger on is when I feel like I'm embarrassed to to tell somebody that I'm in this new thing. Um I remember when I invested in an NBA team in 2011. The people around me were up in arms. My family office was up in arms.
My best friends were up in arms. My wife at the time, up in arms. Why are you doing this? This makes no sense. And I said, here's what And you know, it's almost as if what I've learned actually in my career is when people around you have that reaction, it's almost the best signal. I agree with you 100%.
Um and I had been reading a lot and I've been reading about how to actually be a tech investor. Mhm. And the conclusion that I came to was, wow, the approach that I want to do is so unconventional the the the risk of ruin was very high. So, then I was like, well, let me just find the most totally uncorrelated asset and park I don't I can't remember it was like 25 or 40 million bucks or something.
So, that if I lose everything, I still have this little thing and I can take care of myself. And uh that ended up being the investment in the Warriors, which ended up doing financially quite well. Um but it repeated itself with Bitcoin in 2012. I did the same thing. People got so They were just so upset.
And I remember, you know, I I I would appear every now and then on like CNBC and just the vitriol and the hatred. Um and I was like you So, if you can wither the negative reactions of others, where is that coming from? It has nothing to do with you. Right? People are living their own journey. But what is happening in that moment?
What what is happening is something you are saying is attacking a core foundational belief that they have and it is touching such a nerve that they are just reflexively reacting. That is an incredible signal. Because what it tells you is you're on to something. It could still be a huge zero. But you now can bucket it into that there is a there is the potential for a massive asymmetric outcome.
So, when when when I'm investing initially what I was thinking about how do I put myself in a position once I've So, I spend like still 2 3 hours reading a day. Okay? I would develop views. I would write notes. I would think about it. And then I would come up with these ideas and then I would just test them out.
And man, people would just When when people reacted like ho-hum, I was like, "Okay, this is a nothing burger. Not interesting." But when people had like this visceral reaction, I was like, "I'm onto something." Doesn't mean I'm right, but it's something that triggers people. And I would use that as a way to amplify and spend more time.
Since then, I've added one more thing to this, which is now I have a different way of investing for large quantum of money. Like super large quantum. Hundreds of millions plus plus. There, I actually want consensus. Because this should not be about any sort of existential risk or product risk of any kind.
So, when you're investing tens of millions of dollars, who cares? You can lose the money. It's not a big deal. When you're investing hundreds of millions or billions, you cannot afford to lose it. Risk of ruin goes up. So, now I try to like context switch. Here, I want you to just be I want you to just hate it.
I want you to just be This is so gross. It's rat poison. Oh, really? Okay, great. I'm Now I'm going to spend more time. Over here Oh, that makes Yeah, okay. That I understand. Which portfolio did better? Gross tonnage of dollars, this one. Sheer alpha, this one. The non-obvious thing is it's a you thing.
Investing is all about you and you only. All this nonsense of like teams is nonsense. Teams win is your investment team, your family office? Uh it is one person that makes the investment decisions, which is me. And then there's a very trusted team of people that help me with all of the infrastructure of that, the complexity of that.
Okay, so you think number one then? So you, I'm just summarizing, yeah? Yeah. You, nobody else, no team, nobody in the front office other than you. Two, have a very thoughtful understanding of what you're looking for when you're constructing a portfolio. How do I arrive at that? I think it's you can start by just having a very coarse definition of there's small and then there's medium and large.
Small should be about massive alpha. Massive alpha is generated typically in controversy. How do you arrive at controversy? By testing out these ideas and getting and just getting a sense of people's reactions to it. Mhm. So for example, like you know, going back to this crypto example, there are crypto projects right now
Mhm. that are completely fungible, totally private, and if you ask people, they will have wildly divergent views. Mhm. That is a great setup for some of those crypto projects. Again, could go to zero, but could go to infinity. Yeah. So this bucket is always about just swinging for the fences. This bucket The medium?
Medium and large is you can never be wrong. Cuz I would rather take a billion dollars and generate a 2x than go to a than and then risk than have a chance at a 5x, but there's also a chance of a zero. This is your data center, energy, and all of that. Well, so So this is about portfolio construction.
Then you have to have a view of like what do you like and what do you want to see in the world? Because the dollars that you have are really an amplification method to the point of view. So in my point of view, I have a very specific view on AI. I've been at it now for a decade. I have a decent sense of it, and I want to
your view on AI overall, if you had to summarize? I think it's a massive accelerant on productivity. I think it will create levels of progress that are unimaginable. And I think we now need to build the tooling that allows people to participate in all of those gains. And if UBI? No, like you know, be able to actually like work in it and be productive and allocate one's time to pursuits that these things enable.
of people, when the productivity goes up in that manner, what will be the use case for billions of people in the world? Well, I think that was the same argument in the agrarian revolution. And we found things. And again, I I just think that the the odds are if you look at the last two or three meaningful evolutions of humanity through technology, every single time, if you dropped yourself in that moment, you would have not had a precise way to answer that question.
Yet, if you took the pessimistic view, you would have been wrong. Mhm. I think that this is still one of those moments. And so, I suspect that to again, today, we don't have a good language to talk about how we will all participate, but I suspect that if you take a pessimistic view of the answer to this question, you will turn out to be wrong.
So, so anyways, back So, back to So, my my point is that in in all of this, I have specific views on energy and energy policy and national security. And And so, that's where I choose to allocate Right. the smalls and the mediums and larges. Right. But for somebody else, it could be biotech, it could be, you know, cancer research, it could be enterprise SaaS. It doesn't It doesn't matter at that point. Right.
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