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what's going on everyone my name is Nicolas Merton here a day - - today is August 6 of 2019 well folks I hope you are having a fantastic day wherever you are and in today's video I want to spend some time to get to a very root question and that is what's going to lead Bitcoin higher going into 2020 in 2021 and I'm not going to sit at the surface and say oh it's things like back or Bitcoin ETF I actually want to get to the root thing that drives pretty much any given market and that is liquidity so we're gonna be diving into that and much more it's gonna be a really interesting episode right after our quick sponsor our sponsor for today's video is coin Deal calm coin dough calm is one of the largest cryptid of fiat exchanges in Europe and they're giving away over 90 percent of all their tokens to users who register on their platform whereas most projects only give away 5 to 7 percent this is a massive giveaway for early adopters of the platform it doesn't cost anything to register an account and you can sell or hold on to the tokens after it launches check out the link in the description for more info already everyone so as I talked about at the beginning of the video I'm not gonna be talking about these kind of headline pieces that supposedly drive bitcoins price I want to talk about the liquidity that may or may not be driven by them that's really what brings markets higher and also can drag them lower if liquidity flows out its inflows and outflows I've talked about this a little bit in the past when it comes to the stock market and I want to talk about it when it comes to cryptocurrencies because it's the same exact thing there are people who enter in markets and exit ok so we'll build into that as we go throughout the video so taking a look over the last 24 hours most cryptos are in the negative zone at the moment as Bitcoin has closed down and some of its gains the funny thing about it is like I read this morning it was like Bitcoin crashes back down all of course all the headlines are blowing it out of proportion like pickling crashes back down to 12,500 like that's funny that's where it was well hit and when I went to bed so must've made a move overnight in that case I was kind of realizing that but in the sense of overall market cap you know we're really not changed that much down 5 billion from the relative peak here over this week and again looking like we might be on course to potentially breakthrough the previous two highs the general line resistance that gets formed both in market cap and in Bitcoin I'll talk about that as we go throughout the video and we take a look at the ta side bit going dominant so still climbing up all the way up to 6 to 8% looks like we're well on our way towards 70 percent market dominance for Bitcoin I'll have to see how it handles around there but it does look like we've obviously cleared through the resistance here guys no doubt about it gotta say a little bit of a shocker to me because the chart was looking quite exhausted but again we might still be getting a good flush on the all coin space right now seems like most of the market leaders are not selling up too hard against Bitcoin but they're definitely not holding up strong alright so let's go ahead and focus in here on the current track for Bitcoin now if we take a look in the sense of the last 24 hours it looks like we've gotten a rejection here after the multi-day uptrend that we had in Bitcoin seemed like they had relatively low volatility nothing crazy the sense of volume really good last bit of volume here on the last day here until we finally turn red now what do I think's going on here well I want to take a little bit of a longer-term look here to explain what I've got on my chart so taking a look from the bottom of the market here where we landed here on the 200 week again double bottom here to confirm that we're likely for a reversal we got that from the absolute bottom here to the absolute top this is what was basically what's known as the Fibonacci fan and you can basically get some ideas as to where price can find support and that's exactly what happened here on the week of July 24th if we took it at the daily we can see that we've had direct support on that fan that's where we got the bounce off of and after that we had a nice uptrend but what I think's coming into play here is that we're now getting a line of resistance from the two previous highs which gives us a good measurement for where resistance is going to be hitting price right here so what's really happening here what's actually coming in to price here well I think what we're getting any whether or not you want to use the Fibonacci fan or not is we're getting a general line of support here in price on the bottom side and then also a line of resistance we're getting a coiling of price or a wedge in this case so very common to a signal for breakouts or breakdowns it means that price is going to coil in and eventually make a move now I think people would probably agree that with the kind of momentum we're gonna have we've had this year it's gonna lead higher who knows I can't I can't say that we won't have a correction to one of these lower levels on the fan or lower levels in previous support for bitcoins some people believe we're gonna go down to 6k heck I would love it but I don't see it really happening so I give it the momentum that's going on right now I think the Bulls are in favor right now with the kind of scare that's going on in equities as well as other markets across the world and currency markets things that sort I think you know what was going on in China yesterday in the sense of the Forex pair and the devaluation that was going on sheesh I mean that would get me concerned someone was money and the Chinese yuan personally speaking it's a large currency you know now as we'll talked about this video again we obviously know the macro picture here is concerning this was an indicator I think this is just another way of looking at it we talked about the purchasing manufacturing X which is a traditional market indicator for the kind of state of manufacturing for global economies and you have pretty much all of the major nations and the world reporting their PMI I have no doubt that there can possibly be some some decent manipulation with most indicators but the thing about the PMI my understanding is that the PMI is a survey the survey basically asks manufacturers have a feeling you know how are they feeling about demand for their exports right you know are people buying their products more what are the costs of goods that you're producing is profitable what's your put your margins and all kinds of different questions that are very relevant to the manufacturing sector in the global economy and right now the PMI ever since 2018 has just been an app so it's spiked up to the upside and going to 2020 we're rivaling levels that we saw back in 2011 that we've obviously seen in 2008 and during previous LEDs in the past such as the peak of the dot-com bubble in 2000 so this is definitely concerned the PMI again is some people say is not as relevant but because of the fact that we're you know exiting out of a manufacturing economy but we're manufacturing more stuff than we ever have in the sense of the global economy so any faction is still very relevant we're buying more products things that sort and this is measurement of the amount nations that are in basically below fifty fifty point territory and the reason why that's important is it means that the broader economy is getting less confident right it means that most people are not confident that there's going to be growth and that's happening in over 70% of nations here and not to much as well this is coming out of time we've talked about the 14 trillion dollar negative yielding debt crisis which is only going to balloon bigger over the next few months it'll be interesting to see where that goes by the end of this year and if we think about how quick that's grown I mean to think we could easily probably get you know 15 trillion by the next month and not to mention if we keep expanding you know we can easily go on to larger numbers you're on 18 and 20 trillion by the end of the year who knows we'll have to see I'm not you know rushing it but at the same time I think is already a problem as is so as I mentioned again there's a lot of these surface level things I think honestly Bitcoin ETF backed in demand you know things he's kind of interesting pick one those will come in time it's glad I'm glad that we're pushing that it's these kind of allowing factors that have pushed things but even deeper than that we have to talk about a very real thing guys and that is that liquidity drives markets so when we talk for example about things like bitwise that came out up at the bitwise report that they made for the sec back a few months ago actually I kinda almost been a as I'm just been a year it's been a while but ya know the bitwise report that came out talking about the fake Bitcoin volume that's prevalent in the cryptocurrency market with 95 percent make fake volume in the crypto space you know what does this tell us about Bitcoin well it tells us one thing for sure and that is the fact that if we take a look at the current volume behind Bitcoin we don't need 23 billion dollars in liquidity for Bitcoin at this current price range so this is actually really good news this means that you know if we were to just you know kind of put some perspective here let's just get some clarity on numbers coin market cap as well as any coin aggregate site if for the most part is probably not gonna report the absolute real volume because some people like to see this this wide range of volume again I personally I don't but it's it's you know it's just different companion in this case anyways let's rough this off to twenty billion dollars you know let's say give or take for Bitcoin if we you know obviously get ninety five percent of that is fake volume we're gonna come out to about 1 billion dollars in daily volume right so if 1 billion dollars over two hundred billion dollar market is the current liquid volume we have that's highly significant that's a good amount of volume that's that's actually a pretty decent amount here because it's important to understand when we take a look at for example what's known as daily turnover this was actually talked about the bitwise report that between bitcoins market cap as well as our spot volume that we're getting on these exchanges that are liquid that we can guarantee are coming with liquid volume we're actually getting a relatively decent turnover that's how you measure you basically are taking a spot volume and dividing it by the the market capitalization of your asset so we're similarly to kind of like NVT in a sense it's a measurement of like okay how much real genuine liquidity are we training this market to get this value so obviously the liquidity that's trading the day is almost point four in this case or three point three nine that's defining the seventy billion dollar valuation back when the report was done but the market has grown and in fact this ratio has actually increased not to mention I would say the bitwise is a little bit over the top and analyzing this I'd say that there's actually a little bit more liquid volume coming in just to be fair I would say the back of this time period it was around 350 to 400 million because they completely discounted a lot of the Asia exchanges just because there might be a little bit of excessive market making in their exchange so again even taking either one into account here we can see that there's not much money that's needed to get Bitcoin to where it is and this is actually the kind of hidden truth that a lot of people never learned about in the previous cycle it was actually a very minimal amount of volume what seemed as if you know was the topic that everyone was talking about you know little to no one actually owned at the time it was a very select few people who owned Bitcoin or actually had exposure to cryptocurrencies and were buying and any significant kind of volume so that's the thing to take into mind here guys is that overall with this bitwise report this gives us a very good insight and to the fact that you know we don't need much liquidity to come in so if we kind of go back to the macro picture here sorry I'm a little bit scattered on all my charts but if we take for example this topic of negative yielding bonds let's say for example that you know the indicator gets up to 15 trillion by the next month or two there's fifteen trillion dollars in negative yielding bonds you know 1.5 trillion 10% over the next year exit out of negative yielding bonds as a you know fixed game income investments and they're looking for something to put their capital into and maybe just maybe some of that even a fraction of that 1.5 trillion is crypto I'm not even talking about a whole 1.5 trillion dollars going directly into Bitcoin let's just say even a few hundred billion or 10 billion dollars of that money goes in a Bitcoin that's huge liquidity that's new inflows that's not people circulating money between bitcoins and altcoins no that's real genuine liquidity coming in all they need is an entry the moment you provide them a Bitcoin ETF the moment you provide them easy access to things like that and also ledger X and then also entries like fidelity and I think with time as time progresses you're going to beginning all their major brokerage platforms that will allow for this you are going to allow so much capital to slowly push in that's going to be able to fleet these traditional vehicles the more the Fed mentions it as a even as a speculative store value whatever the more it gets legitimized over time I think we already know bitcoin is legitimate and it's been working and it is what the ultimate store value should be at least to what is possible in today's world you know this is really exciting stuff guys we know that there is not much liquidity needed what happens when a Black Swan event happens what happens if stocks continue to sell off like they are right now that's the stuff that I kind of think about a night it's what keeps me up at night and it's what keeps me from stressing about like 3 or $500 moves in Bitcoin right because I know right now those are minimal liquidity shifts of markets it's it's whales propping up the market dumping it trying to trade against one another on bit necks on leverage to make a quick buck against one another see I'm in this for the long term guys I really genuinely mean that I am most exposed to crypto currencies more than any other asset class as we talked about in my previous video when I stopped at the stock market this is an immense opportunity in my mind personally you guys are gonna determine that for yourself how much exposure you want to it but I think the sheer fact that this market is driven by a fair amount of liquidity similar to gold in this case I would say this ratios back up to a very similar to gold if not higher even if we take that into mind it's got good liquidity but it doesn't demand much at the moment what happens when the liquidity starts flowing what happens when the inflows kick in as fear continues to rise that's what's on my mind guys I hope it's on your mind too and let me know what you guys think about this analysis in the comments down below if you guys liked the video drop a like I'd really appreciate it every little bit counts as well as any comment you guys engagement always helps out on the channel and if you guys want to support the channel in any way we've got lots of links down below in the description you guys can go ahead and check out if you want to support the channel probably check it's pretty cool projects and companies as well but until the next video guys thank you all so much for watching I hope you are having a wonderful day wherever you are and I'll see you all in the next one stay tuned you
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