Jeffrey Gundlach talks what to expect in 2020, the markets, and the Fed

요약 보기

2019년 시장은 4분기 저점 이후 주식·채권·금 등 대부분 자산이 강하게 올랐지만, 이는 연준의 급격한 정책 전환(금리인상 중단, 대차시장 개입에 따른 사실상 QE 재개)에 힘입은 것이며 경기 지표는 악화되고 있다는 진단. 글로벌 시장 현황: 미 10년물 금리는 약 2% 수준에서 횡보 중이고, S&P500과 다우는 신고가를 경신했지만 미국 외 주식은 2018년 1월 고점을 아직 회복하지 못했다고 평가. 연준 정책: 작년 12월 자동조종(automatic pilot) 입장과 2019~2020년 연속 금리인상 계획을 밝혔다가 시장 급락 후 입장을 뒤집었고, 9월 레포시장 충격 이후 사실상 QE 4단계를 진행 중이라고 주장. 이것이 연말 주식 시장 상승을 떠받쳤다고 평가. 경기 및 부채: ISM 제조업 지수는 예상(반등)과 달리 매우 나빴다고 언급. 국가부채 증가율이 명목 GDP 증가율을 상회하며, 최근 수 분기 성장은 부채 기반이고, 재정적자/GDP 비율은 역사적으로 침체 저점 수준이라고 경고. 장기 전망(주식 로테이션): 2019년은 투자자에게 매우 쉬운 해였지만, 미국 우위 패턴은 끝났다고 판단. 일본(1980년대 말), 유럽(late 90s), 신흥국(2000년대)의 과거 사례를 제시하며, 다음 경기침체 때 미국 증시가 크게 하락하고 장기간 고점을 회복하지 못할 것이라 주장. 달러 전망: 달러인덱스(DXY)는 올해 96~97 사이로 매우 안정적이었으나, 다음 경기침체 시 재정적자 문제로 달러가 약세를 보일 것으로 예상. 투자 함의: 미국 외 주식 보유가 미국 주식보다 나을 것이라는 장기 견해. 다만 단기(1~3개월) 방향 언급은 없음. 리스크: 레포 시장 불안, 공급측 요인으로 장기금리 상승 가능성, 부채 누증, 다음 경기침체 시 미국 증시 붕괴 가능성.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. and Geoffrey Gunlock thank you for having us here at double line about to celebrate the 10th anniversary yeah welcome to that all right well Geoffrey our viewers definitely want to get your take on where we are in the markets a lot has transpired in 2019 what do you make of it and what do you see driving the markets going forward in 2020 well 2019 looks really strong when you look at global stocks and bonds and gold and Bitcoin and just about everything but you have to remember that came off of him extremely arbitrary point your end was a very low point because the fourth quarter of 2018 was incredibly weak and so if you look at things in a broader context markets are kind of turning around I mean Treasury yields have been at around 2% on the 10-year for a while the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones have reached new highs but stocks outside the United States are still below or they were January 26 of 2018 so we're kind of grinding along and what's really helped 20:19 no doubt was the massive u-turn by the Federal Reserve it's really hard to believe how things have changed or last 12 months in terms of the Fred the feds outlook and their behavior a year ago the Fed was in automatic cutie and they said so in the December conference that they would be on automatic pilot cutie no matter what the data set and then the markets tanked they also said they were going to have sequential rate hikes in 2019 and 2020 and that changed a few weeks later too because the markets were tanking and then all of a sudden we went not only into no more quantitative tightening but in response to the repo markets dust-up back on September 17th and some other subsequent dust-ups we see the Fed is kind of doing quantitative easing part four but they don't want to call it that they're abusing semantics saying that well we're not doing it for long-term interest rates for only doing it for overnight money and short-term interest rates but they're still expanding their balance sheet and that has driven the market for sure I think I think it forestalled the market kind of settling back down in the second half of this year because of the quantitative easing that they begun so the markets are pretty high levels given that GDP has started to look worse the is manufacturer came out today the only way to characterize the number is terrible I mean across the board we expected to bounce back instead the consensus expected bounce back instead we got something different but what's interesting is that the bond market seems to be showing some trouble signs the dust-up in the repo market basically to me shows that the Fed has manipulated interest rates to a level that the market really doesn't accept because if you can't float overnight money at a level of the Fed Funds rate it means that the natural demand isn't there which reinforces my thesis that in the next recession absent the Fed doing massive monetary purchases interest rates at the long end of the curve would probably go up because of supply problems I've been talking about this for a long time that the growth in the national debt is substantially higher than the growth in nominal GDP it's pretty amazing when you think about it we talked about how the economy is so good in terms of employment it's true but in terms of other things the economy isn't that good and if you weren't expanding the national debt at all if you're just keeping it constant we would actually have negative nominal GDP right now so it's a kind of a sobering thought that the entire expansion that we have had in recent several quarters is all debt based the national debt and the deficit as a percentage of GDP are at levels that historically have been associated with the depths of a recession in terms of a stimulative policy so I think 2019 has turned out to be one of the greatest easiest years ever for investors just about anything just throw a dart and you're up fifteen twenty percent not just the United States and global stocks as well I think that the pattern of the United States outperforming the rest of the world has already come to an end and I think that in the future what investors should think about is a pattern I've talked about this chart which I call the chart of the year which we could we take the world we divide into four regions the United States Japan Europe and emerging markets and we go back to 1980s and just take the major indices from those or regions it's interesting that in the late 80s Japan was viewed to be invincible they were absolutely killing it the real estate was booming they were by far the strongest stock market was the Nikkei in the world and then the recession came in the early 90s and the Nikkei got completely wiped out and was fascinating here thirty years later it still hasn't come close to that high then in the OS it was Europe in the sorry in the late 90s it was Europe with optimism that I think was misguided but optimism about the Euro being potentially a reserve currency and was just formulated it came into being in 1999 and it turned out that Europe was killing it and outperformed every other stock market region of the world and then the recession came in the early ELO's and the Euro stocks got kneecapped and they've never been back to that level again then you had the emerging markets with you with the dollar being weak in the middle of the OS and the Ascension of China you had emerging markets were by far the strongest region and stocks in the world and then when the Great Recession came they got completely destroyed and they've never made it back to that level again so where are we today today we have SP 500 is killing everybody else over the last ten years almost 100% outperformance versus most other stock markets my belief is that that pattern will repeat itself in other words when the next recession comes the united states will get crushed and it will not make it back to the highs that we've seen that we're kind of floating around right now probably for the rest of my career is what I think is going to happen now my career isn't it doesn't have 30 years to go but it also doesn't have a year or two to go so I think that there's going to be a rotation into non-us stocks like the dollar is going to be weak the dollar has been very stable this year it's really remarkable the Dixey index the DXY started this year at 96 and a quarter and today it's a 97 handle so it's been remarkably stable I think in the next recession the dollar will fall because of the deficit problem United States and the United investors will be better served to own foreign stock markets and so US stock market in dealing with the next recession