저자: RayDalio · 외국인
요약 보기
Dalio는 2008년 이후 중앙은행 유동성 확대 체제가 한계에 달해 패러다임 전환이 올 것이라 보며, 고인플레와 저성장이 맞물린 스태그플레이션 위험을 강조한다. 2023~2024년 경기침체 가능성과 연준의 금리인하 필요성을 언급했고, 금리 상승은 자산가격 하락 요인이라 주식·채권 추가 하락을 예상한다. 현금은 여전히 'trash'라고 평가했으며, 인플레 헤지 목적으로 원자재와 가격결정력 있는 주식에 투자하고 분산투자를 강조한다. 중국은 장기 관점에서 긍정적이라 했으나 자산가격이 낮다고 보며 위험하다고 언급했다. 과거 설명과 일반론이 대부분이며 특정 자산의 1~3개월 방향 예측은 명확하지 않다.
다듬은 글
The world we're going to be in is a very different world than the world we were in. The world we were in started in 2008 and had to do with central banks printing money and stimulating and that is reaching its limit. And that's why I think we're going to see a paradigm shift. American billionaire Ray Dio advises novice investors to maintain a diverse portfolio due to ongoing geopolitical and economic challenges.
Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio stated, "I'd like to have a diversification because what I don't know is going to be much greater than what I do know." Bridgewwater Associates is one of the largest hedge funds in the world. How does Ray Dalio see the market going forward? Ray Dallio stated that he believes interest rate cuts by central banks worldwide by 2024 as stagflation strikes the international economy.
The billionaire investor stated that he believes the US market would be so badly damaged by the prolonged period of high inflation that rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will be necessary prior to the 2024 election. A combination of high inflation and slow growth is referred to as stagnation. Given its correlation with rising unemployment, declining consumer spending, and decreasing earnings, it can be catastrophic for stock markets.
Although it decreased a little to 8.3% in April, inflation is still near all-time highs. An additional factor fueling worries about stackflation is low growth. The CEC reduced its forecast by 1.5 percentage points and the World Bank recently warned that a recession would be hard to avoid and decreased its global growth projection from 4.1% to 2.9%.
Instead of focusing on fixed income investments, Dio told the Financial Review that he's making inflation hedged investments in commodities and pricing power stocks. While everyone was waiting for the Federal Reserve to announce its third jumbo interest rate hike, Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, issued a cautionary note to those who were holding on to optimism that depreciated asset values would soon rise.
According to Dalio, the Fed's attempt to control inflation will be unsuccessful unless it persists in rising interest rates significantly. Gallio believes that as a result of these and other causes, including the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, stocks and bonds will likely continue to decline and that the US economy will likely enter a recession in 2023 or 2024.
We're extremely close to having a 0% year right now. During the first market watch best new ideas and money festival, Dalio stated, "I think it's going to get worse in 2023 and 2024, which has implications for elections." She was speaking in Market Watch editor and chief Mark Dambre. Fed chairman Jerome Powell has promised that the bank will use all available tools to fight inflation, even if doing so causes the economy and markets to collapse.
However, Dallio thinks the Fed needs to increase benchmark interest rates to a range of 4% and 5% in order to achieve this. The Fed fund rate will rise above 3% for the first time since prior to the financial crisis following its third 75 basis point interest rate hike. According to the CME's Fed Watch tool, future traders believe that the Fed may hike the benchmark rate to as high as 4.5% by July, which would support trillions of dollars worth of assets.
However, traders believe that there is only remote possibility that the rate will rise to 5% prior to another rate cutting move by the Fed. How does Dio view the impact of high interest rate on investments? After reaching its greatest point in over 40 years during the summer, inflation in the United States has somewhat decreased.
However, when components of core inflation such as housing costs proved more tenacious last month than economists had predicted, a report on consumer price pressure in August sent financial markets into a tail spin a few days back. However, the prolonged energy crisis in Europe has caused prices for everything from consumer products to heat to rise even more sharply.
Higher interest rates are a death sentence to real assets like the property market as well as financial assets. As Dallio demonstrated with some of the most fundamental ideas in corporate finance, investors need to adjust the discount rate they use to calculate the present value of future cash flows or investment payments associated with a particular stock or bond and interest rate rises.
Investors usually make up for this levy on these function revenue streams, inflation, and higher interest rates by lowering the valuation. When investing, a lumpsum payment is made for future cash flows. The present value of the investment is then calculated using a discount rate to determine its value.
And for that reason, all boats rise and fall together. According to Dallio, all asset prices rise when interest rates are lowered to zero or nearly zero. Dio continued, and the opposite happens when you go the opposite direction. Although Dallio stated that he anticipates further losses in stocks, he specifically mentioned the bond market as a source of concern.
According to Dallio, the issue is that the Fed is no longer monetizing the federal government debt. The rate at which treasury and mortgage bonds are removed from the central bank's balance sheet will be doubled by the Fed in September. Who will purchase the bonds? Dio questioned then pointed out that the real return on bonds has moved significantly low in the response to the question of whether cash is still trash which is a catchphrase that Dallio has frequently used.
He responded that keeping cash is still a trash investment because investment rates haven't increased enough to completely offset the effects of inflation. Dash's actual usefulness, however, is contingent upon how it compares to others. Dallio continued, "We're in this write down of financial assets phase." When asked if he was still positive about China, Dallio said he was, but he added that will there be a chance for long-term investors.
It's a risky moment to be making investment in the second largest economy in the world. He declared, "Asset prices are low." When adjusted for inflation, which has made pension funds globally in the Chinese central bank less inclined to purchase, the bond market was in a 40-year bull market. Prices increases were self-reinforcing over 40 years, according to Dallio.
Right now, the bond's real returns are negative, and you have them falling. When asked about the predictions of the direction of markets, Dallio responded with a witty jab. He who lives by the crystal ball is destined to eat ground glass. Why does Ray Dallio emphasize on diversification and investment and also the importance of AI?
The founder of Bridgewwater Associates, Ray Dalio, gave investors throughout the world some crucial advice. Dalio didn't hold back when asked about OpenAI's well-known chatbot, Chad GPT, on this YouTube channel. His approach to profitable investing centers on the idea of diversification. Although there are others who contend that making large bets on particular stocks or industries in the path to enormous profits, Dalio strongly refutes that idea.
He supports an investment approach that emphasizes diversification among several unrelated assets. Many believe that the greatest method to make a lot of money is to find the best single or few bets. That's incorrect. Rather, he places his focus on making thoughtful investments across several asset classes such as bonds, stocks, and real estate.
Spreading investment around solely for show isn't the only way to achieve diversification. It's a method that dramatically reduces risk without sacrificing rewards, claims Dalio. An investor can dramatically reduce possible risk by 80% by investing in 10 or 15 good uncorrelated investments. According to Dallio, risk reduction is really key to accumulating wealth.
Dio interaction with Chad GPT demonstrates how AI technology is developing, declaring that he thought artificial intelligence was only getting started. He made a suggestion that one day machines might be able to provide counsel better than human specialists. Comparing his extensive knowledge base to AI chatbots such as Chat GPT, Dio speculated that one could be able to get an equally good answer from Chad GPT.
When it came to investing, we're living in a technological age and Dallio's recent interactions have demonstrated that the investment industry is not exempt from its effects. His guiding principle is still diversification, but the wild card to watch out for maybe AI's potential. What's your take on Ray Dallio's view on the markets?
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