저자: 미상 · 외국인
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마이클 버리의 과거 적중 이력과 최근 풋옵션 매수(약 16억 달러, QQQ·SPY 대상)를 소개하며 증시 급락 가능성에 대비하는 방법을 다룬 영상이다. 버리는 2008년 금융위기, 2021년 인플레이션, 2023년 은행 위기를 맞춘 것으로 언급되며, 이번 풋옵션 매수는 13F 공시 기준 약 45일 지연된 정보이므로 현재 포지션과 다를 수 있다고 설명한다. 다만 풋옵션의 명목가치는 실제 투자금이 아니며, 기존 롱 포지션의 헤지일 수도 있다고 본다. 과거 증시 폭락(1987·2000·2008·2018·2020·2022) 사례를 짚으며, 우량 성장 산업 투자와 현금 보유가 급락 대비책이라고 제시한다. 무위험 5% 수익률(단기채 등) 확보가 변동성 대응의 현실적 방법으로 소개된다. 커버드콜 전략은 보유 종목 상승이 멈췄다고 판단될 때 추가 수익과 방어를 위한 수단으로 소개된다. TradeDesk(TTD)는 CTV 중심의 프로그래매틱 광고 성장, 2022년 매출 16억 달러, 2023년 2분기 매출 22% 증가, 무부채, 약 140억 달러 현금·투자자산을 근거로 2023년 유망주로 제시된다. 주가는 연초 대비 64% 상승했고 PS 21배 이상의 프리미엄 밸류에이션이 언급된다. 경기침체 장기화 시 방어주로 AbbVie(ABBV)를 제시한다. 휴미라 특허 만료 리스크가 있지만 Allergan 인수, 보톡스 등 신경과학 사업, 2025년 Skyrizi·Rinvoq 합산 매출 175억 달러 목표를 근거로 든다. 2022년 휴미라 매출 210억 달러, 연간 잉여현금흐름 약 250억 달러, 배당 약 100억 달러가 언급된다. Alphabet(GOOGL)은 710억 달러 잉여현금흐름과 600억 달러 자사주 매입을 근거로, 하락 시 매입 여력이 커져 반등 시 주가 상승을 기대할 수 있다고 본다. 검색 점유율 85%와 AI, 클라우드 성장도 긍정 요인으로 꼽힌다. QQQ는 연초 대비 37% 상승해 이미 많이 오른 상태라는 점도 짚는다.
다듬은 글
all of Michael bur's predictions are coming true one by one much like Nostradamus who was a French astrologer and reputed Seer Nostradamus is best known for his book lepris published in 1555 containing 942 poetic quatron that allegedly predict future events many believe that a majority of his predictions have come true including foreseeing a great war in Europe in 2022 today we have a living legend in the form of a Twitter user named Greek goddess Cassandra which is actually Michael bur's username in Greek mythology Cassandra was a Trojan Priestess dedicated to the god Apollo gifted with the ability to utter true prophecies but cursed to never be believed similarly bur's bold predictions often face skepticism however there's no need to worry if you don't believe in bur's predictions let's shift our Focus to the main agenda how to protect our investments and portfolios even if bur's prediction of a the stock market crash comes true in this video we'll discuss what bur is predicting and how to secure a decent return in turbulent markets Michael bur recently made a notable move by purchasing substantial putt options against the Invesco QQQ ETF and the spdr SNMP 500 ETF trust totaling $1.62 billion this accounts for 93% of San asset Management's disclosed assets while the SNMP 500 and NASDAQ 100 have been performing well in early 2023 bur's past accurate predictions such as the 2008 financial crisis 2021 inflation and the 20202 23 banking collapse have piqued investor interest in his bearish stance it's worth considering that this news reflects actions taken with a potential 45-day delay and may not represent bur's current positions the reported 1.6 billion investment is only part of the story bur's recent move involves purchasing poot options on the SNMP 500 ETF trust and the NASDAQ Invesco QQQ trust the reported $1.6 billion notional value refers to the overall value of the underlying asset not the actual cost of the options bur paid only a fraction of this amount these options could serve purposes such as hedging or speculation indicating that not all his bets are on a market crash Z management still holds stock positions and it has increased stakes in companies like MGM Resort MGM Expedia XP and CVS this suggests the putt options may be used as safeguards against existing long positions rather than signaling a pessimistic Outlook however based on historical data it's worth considering that the stock market has experienced crashes in the past such as in 1987 2000 2008 2018 20120 and 2022 the graph below illustrates how the market has plummeted from its peak while this is speculative it's essential to discuss how to protect our portfolios in the event of a market crash one way to hedge against a market crash is by investing in top tier companies in Industries marked by sustained growth this approach tends to be victorious in the long term additionally maintaining a cash Reserve can be a prudent strategy to navigate through Market turbulence now before we continue with this journey if you're finding this video informative and engaging kindly consider hitting that like And subscribe button every like fuel the algorithm and greatly AIDS our Channel and your support is genuinely appreciated without further Ado let's get back with the video in the current economic climate offering a risk-free 5% return is a prudent measure to withstand Market volatility and seize opportunities as stock prices adjust but there are additional strategies to navigate these uncertain times engaging in a covered call strategy is a solid approach to generate income and protect your Investments especially when you maintain positive sentiment towards a company are not eager to sell your stocks and believe a stocks performance has peaked the trade desk known as TTD emerges as a standout choice for 2023 it has demonstrated impressive expansion and holds promising prospects in the realm of programmatic advertising particularly in Connected television CTV with the ongoing shift of advertising funds from traditional television to platforms like streaming web mobile displays and online videos the trajectory of programmatic advertising is is strongly upward TD's stock has surged by 64% since the beginning of the year showcasing its robust performance the company has experienced remarkable Revenue growth soaring from 661 million to 1.6 billion in 2022 a remarkable 240% increase since 2019 this growth Trend continues in 2023 with a 22% increase in sales during the second quarter even in a challenging advertising Market the trade desk effectively manages its finances generating substantial free cash flow and employing share BuyBacks to offset dilution caused by stock-based compensation notably the company maintains a debt-free status in terms of long-term obligations and holds over $14 billion in cash and Investments despite the premium valuation with a price to sales PS ratio exceeding 21 the trade desk's performance stands out even in the face of advertising deceleration and the potential for an impending recession prolonging the economic slowdown into 2024 is a strategy some investors are considering it involves collecting dividends from recession resistant companies during Market turbulence investors tend to lean towards secure options like ABV making it an attractive choice this year ABV with the ticker symbol abbv has raised concerns among analysts due to the loss of patent protection for its best-selling drug however the company's leadership has been proactive in preparing for this transition evident through its acquisition of allergen since 2019 currently the company boasts a diversified portfolio and two highly successful products to compensate for the loss of hira's dominance in 2022 hir generated $21 billion in sales and ABV has set a target of achieving a minimum of $1 17.5 billion in Combined sales from sky and Roch by 2025 additionally abvs activities in the fields of Neuroscience which involve Botox therapeutic and Aesthetics including botox cosmetic and uidm are yielding positive outcomes it's important to note that every venture has its challenges particularly in the field of oncology where ABV has faced setbacks due to increased competition nevertheless the pharmaceutical industry generally displays resilience against economic downturns ABV possesses a substantial amount of free cash flow total toing $25 billion over the trailing 12 months which comfortably covers its dividend obligations amounting to $10 billion over the same period the company has a history of consistent dividend growth making it an established player in the market next up share BuyBacks share BuyBacks are a crucial element of alphabet strategy setting it apart as a robust player during Market downturns with an impressive $71 billion in free cash flow generated over the the past year alphabet has initiated stock BuyBacks amounting to a substantial $60 billion these BuyBacks equate to roughly 3.5% of the current market capitalization if the stock were to experience a decline alphabet could acquire even more shares for the same investment potentially amplifying gains for shareholders when the stock value rebounds this strategic move could pave the way for a significant Rebound in Google's stock price contrary to speculations about its decline Google has actually witnessed growth in Revenue net income and free cash flow this year with an 85% market share Google search remains dominant complemented by a host of advancements in artificial intelligence AI the rapid expansion of Google cloud is reminiscent of a thriving plant and the company's management is committed to enhancing efficiency it's worth noting that while michaelb often holds a bearish view of the market the attention given to his acquisition of put options might be overstated however considering the QQQ use year-to-date gains of 37% there's a substantial price tag attached this is especially apparent if we consider the potential of an impending recession a perspective sum share to safeguard long-term Investments and position themselves more resiliently investors can employ strategies like holding cash selling calls and investing in Industry Front Runners with consistent cash flow these tangible measures can be undertaken without attempting to time the next Market downturn as we navigate these Dynamic Landscapes remember to diversify protect and seize opportunities when they arise stay tuned to market trends and expert insights but also trust your instincts thanks for watching if you found this video valuable please like subscribe and share your insights on the local stock market in the comments below your input is appreciated until then Happy investing
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