저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 찰리 멍거가 알리바바를 매수했다는 사실을 근거로, 현재 주가(약 230달러)가 멍거의 평균 매수가(245.99달러)보다 낮아 지금 매수가 유리하다는 주장. [멍거 매수 사실] - 데일리저널 포트폴리오에서 알리바바 16만5320주 매수, 포트폴리오 비중 19.2%. - 2021년 1분기 평균 매수가 약 245.99달러. - 멍거는 1960~70년대 S&P500을 크게 상회한 성과를 보인 것으로 소개됨. [알리바바 사업 소개] - 타오바오(C2C), 티몰(B2C), 알리익스프레스(해외), 알리페이, 물류·메신저·엔터테인먼트 등 사업 구조 설명. - 미국 외 시장 노출로 달러 리스크 분산 효과가 있다고 주장. [재무 평가] - 매출·이익 꾸준히 성장, 부채 매우 낮음, ROIC·ROE 약 20%, 순이익률 약 30%. - 현금·투자자산이 부채보다 많다고 설명. - PER은 시장 대비 높지 않다는 취지. [밸류에이션] - 자체 계산 내재가치 232.55달러, 현재가 230달러로 약 1% 할인. - 안전마진 25% 기준으로는 현재가가 충분히 낮다고 주장. [기술적 분석] - 주봉·격주봉 상승 추세, 이동평균선 하회로 할인 구간이라는 설명. [애널리스트 목표가] - 17명 중 강력 매수 의견, 최저 285달러·최고 407달러, 평균 목표가는 현재가 대비 약 42.75% 상승 수준. [결론 및 리스크] - 멍거의 4가지 투자 기준(이해 가능한 사업, 성장 전망, 경영진, 매력적 가격)을 충족한다고 주장. - 영상은 중국 규제, 지정학 리스크 등에 대한 언급이 거의 없음. - 영상 제작 시점은 2021년 4월로, 이후 주가 흐름은 반영되지 않음.
다듬은 글
let's get right into this if you don't know about charlie munger he is the vice chairman of warren buffett berkshire hathaway and has been a highly successful investor for a long time so in today's video he purchased 165 320 shares of alibaba uh giving the position 19.2 uh weight in his uh daily journal portfolio that he manages and he has bought these shares at an average price of approximately 245.99 during the first quarter of this year 2021.
and if you don't know about charlie munger charlie munger has been in the stock market for multiple years here are his uh partnership results in the 1960s and 70s beating the s p 500 with a big margin with almost 12 more returns again compared to the s p 500 and the dow jones and he has outperformed recent results of investors such as kathy wood and even peter lynch in the quarterly filings of um daily journal corp managed by charlie munger we can see that he did a buy of alibaba of 165 000 share approximately and that's accounting to 19 of his portfolio so we can go ahead and look at his history we go all the way down and he has not made any changes for a really long time you can see that last time he made a stock was uh this time and the only time he made activity was when he made a sell on his app pkx where he trimmed up most of his position so during this time he has not added any stocks and he's decided to add up to alibaba in this corner in 2021 so let's go ahead and look at what alibaba does and why did charlie manga buy alibaba after many many years of not buying any stocks and especially during the kobe 19 pandemic so alibaba is one of the world's largest retailer e-commerce giant and it's been compared many times as chinese amazon with millions of people using their shopping platform monthly and with operations around the world and 200 other countries apart from china so the company is made up of multiple sites such as uh tavao.com alibaba.com tmall.com and uh basically taobao.com is a consumer to consumer platform while tmall is a business to a consumer platform and aliexpress which sells uh goods and services outside of china they also have alipay which is basically like paypal um a digital currency that you can use to pay for on taobao or teemo when you buy goods and services they also include a shipping company a messenger app entertainment studios and many others growth has been also at a rapid pace in china and in other major international markets for alibaba and markets have changed tremendously and probably forever in the last decade moving to e-commerce and we've seen this a lot during the pandemic and it's definitely a good industry to be in and for the future and basically what alibaba does and simple words is they can be used uh by anyone for anywhere for anything and if they so alibaba is a good stock to have because it gives you exposure a little bit away from primarily a company based in the u.s and this will be a lot less effective if us of much does occur in the u.s or inflation or interest rates uh negatively affect the u.s dollar because this company is not just based off of uh uh us and they have a lot of customers in another country so it gives you a little bit of exposure to the rest of the world instead of having only stocks in the us if you look at uh big investors at radario he has a lot of exposure in different markets such as gold us dollars especially in different countries because you want to be able to diversify yourself in case of my passion then be able to lower the amount of impact that you have so this is a really good play and as you can see from um the price that charlie baria he bought it at 245 and it's currently trading a lot cheaper than that at 230 so it shows that it's trading below charlie's price and that's the value that he bought the stock at so by buying now you're buying even below him and you have creating a marginal safety for yourself and buying yourself a good price diving into alibaba's financials we can see that the company is continuously growing so if you look at the revenue it's on a steady growth which is very nice to see same thing is the case with the income it's gradually increasing we can see that the revenue growth has been pretty insane for year to year as well as quarter to quarter and we can see that the p e ratio isn't very high compared to some of the other options available in the market today it is pretty high but it's a lot less compared to how low interest rates are in the market and how much stocks are pe ratios have been in the last couple months um looking at their debt as well we can see that that is really low showing that the company is earning without accumulating debt to increase their growth um looking at also their return on investor capital this is really nice it's almost at that 20 mark that we always want to see so the company is continuously adding on to their uh growth rate as well as increasing their cash operations increasing the value of the company um you can also see that the return on equity is almost at the 20 it's continuously growing which is always nice to see and the profit margin is already 30 so the company is already generating good amount of money and increasing the amount of money they make also looking at the balance sheet we can see that the amount of cash and the investment they have is a lot more than their debt which is nice to see that the company has a lot of money which they can go ahead and make more investment as well as acquisitions so that's always nice looking at the intrinsic value i went ahead and put in all their numbers apparently their instrument value is at 232.55 and they're currently trading at 230.
so that gives us a discount of one percent but if you look at their marginal safety of 25 they are trading well below that amount so we are already getting this uh company at a fair price and we're not overpaying for this so that's always nice to see and uh as i mentioned earlier charlie monger bought his shares at 245 at the average price so by buying right now you're buying below his price and what he values to be a good price for this company so that's always a good thing to see quick technical analysis on their chart you can see that they're on a continuous growth they've been increasing their weekly bi-weekly they're on upward trend that's always nice to see and you see that they're trading well below their moving averages so you're getting a discount this primarily has to do with the fact that the whole market had a correction uh but we can see that they price that we're going to be getting them is a lot less compared to what we could have been getting them previously so we have that margin of safety going ahead into the spot so let's go ahead and look at price targets for alibaba as you can see from 17 analysts it's a strong buy and it's currently trading at 230 dollars and the lowest projection is at 285 dollars as well as the highest is going um at 407 so that's a pretty big increase and the average um price target represents a 42.75 percent from the last price of 200 a dollar overall i think charlie munger's player is actually pretty good and he has uh said before that opportunity only comes a couple of times you should always take advantage so as we can look when he's looking to buy good investment he goes ahead and he makes sure he follows these four good uh criterias so the first criteria being understandable business so if you he has a good understanding of how this business operates as well as what they provide i discussed this earlier in the video but he has a good understanding of that he also sees favorable growth perspectives so we saw on their financials how steadily their growth was going and it's always been increasing their revenue is increasing quarterly yearly which is always a good sign so it follows that criteria also you go ahead goes hands and look at their management um we can i didn't discuss too much about management but their management is a top tier with their previous uh ceo as well as jack ma their co-founder so they've been progressing really rapidly as well as uh they've been doing pretty well as a management team as we can see and his fourth criteria is available at attract prices so the stock is trading at uh undervalued prices comparatively to our intrinsic value calculator and there's also a margin of safety as we looked at since this trading is below the price of a monger bought it at and it currently is below its moving averages all right guys i want to thank you for watching this video if you did enjoy and you want to see more content like this go ahead and subscribe and leave a like it's much appreciated alright have a wonderful rest of your day guys
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