Fed Chair Powell has room to lower rates, says Wharton's Jeremy Siegel

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Siegel은 관세 완화 협상 진전으로 시장이 강세 전환했다고 봄. 10%/30% 관세 수준은 시장이 감내 가능하며 추가 악화만 없으면 신고가 가능하다고 주장. 무역적자는 기축통화 지위상 필요하다고 언급. 인플레이션 둔화 흐름과 고용 둔화를 근거로 Fed(파월)가 금리 인하 여력이 있다고 봄.

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01. Join us now, . He hates hates tariffs. And you still you still do not think there's much left? I I think you had to be surprised by the 20% snapback in the S&P uh with with the tariffs front and center. And at this point, you think we're at the high end of where we're going to get this summer if tariffs continue to be a problem, right?

02. Well, first Joe, let me say I hope it's not all about the hair because I would be totally lost. No, with you it's all about the gray matter. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. You're right. It's all about the gray matter. You know that let let me tell you, yes, I am against the tariffs. And by the way, if the tariffs had stayed, it was where they were in the first term, I think the Dow would be 2,000 points higher.

03. And if the tariffs had remained where they were on April 2nd, I think the Dow would be 8,000 points lower. And you know, and I actually turned bullish three weeks ago when when the negotiations went so well on the first meeting between she and Bessant. Well, it wasn't she's representative and Bessant on trade talks.

04. I mean, no one expected it, you know, to go from 145% down to 30% and all that. And I said, "Listen, the market can live with 10 and 30. 10 base and and 30 on China." Now, I know the aluminum and and steel have 50. Uh but I think the market can definitely live with those. And if if it doesn't get worse, um I think uh there's no reason we can't push to new highs.

05. um if it if it gets higher and you know ramps up there then uh you know the the ceiling is on. I wonder, you know, we're hearing now that India is extending the the the talks which may or may we'll talk to Kevin Hassid. Maybe that would be a positive. China uh talking again near term it may not be the whole summer that you're worried, right?

06. Or maybe I hope not. I mean uh you know very honestly uh you know I I don't want to call it the taco trade because obviously you know it sort of demeanes Trump and Right. But the truth is he's been, you know, very much more flexible. You know, I mean, we always known that his bark is is is you louder than his bike uh bite when it really came to these tariffs.

07. And uh I think the initial reaction honestly sort of shocked him and he said, "Oh, wow. You know, I better pedal a little easier uh on that." I mean, listen, we're not seeing Peter Navara the way we did, you know, in April, are we? Uh, we're seeing Besson much more moderate. He's been more moderate.

08. He knows this takes time. These trade agreements are not, you know, you know, you know, he gave the EU. Yes. No, I give you one day. Well, it's been one day. You know, uh, these things do take time. And by the way, yes, if we can lower some of their restrictions, we will be better off. Uh there's there's no question about that.

09. But uh you know, it's a it's a big consumption tax and um uh you know, let's face it, you know, most of the 90% of the manufacturing job loss since World War II came before we even had NAFTA uh or before the China entered the the WTO. I mean, uh it's it's a natural evolution as globalization and the world economy really picked up.

10. So, you know, we can't get we're not getting back to the 50s. And, uh, I think we have we have to look ahead to, you know, what economy we're we're looking forward to rather than back to, you know, what what looks like the good old days. I don't know what in Taco Trade, it's either that or the art of the deal.

11. I don't I don't think it it's helpful either. Uh, because it just probably makes him mad and it inflames him. could make him more impulsive on hey now I'm not I'm going to show him I don't back down and wow I mean if you got I mean I'm not saying that that these uh unfair practices have held us back I mean obviously we're the greatest we've had the greatest economy around but but if we could get a 50% lessening of some of these restrictions if you know it's it's not perfect it's not a removal of everything it's not a completely fair trading with this.

12. But but anything happens on the margin and then both countries get to say, "Okay, we're done." And you know, now back to business as usual and you get 50% better. I mean, that would be good. That would work. I mean, that would work. And and you know, as I've said before, if you you run it, if you're going to be a world reserve currency, which is a position that Donald Trump says he definitely supports.

13. Remember, he threatened the emerging markets say, "Don't try to put a currency on us above the dollar." Uh you need to run a trade deficit. You have to have more dollars flowing abroad uh uh than uh you know, you take in uh to to provide uh that sort of currency. So, you know, the idea of eliminating all deficits uh is something that really would hurt uh the United States and I, you know, I hope that the administration's coming to realize that.

14. But it was nice to see the trade deficit. I mean, 60 is a lot better than 120 in terms of, you know, if the if everything does quiet down tariff-wise, uh, professor, then J Pal could cut rates, too. You'd have no no reason. I agree with you. I'm I'm actually one of the dovish around. I think he should think about it because I think we might get some uh a couple soft figures um pretty much on expectations on on the CPI.

15. Uh but I see I see some good trends and especially I actually see really outside the tariffs which will begin to kick in a bit and will raise some inflation but outside of that I really see a downward movement and uh you know I I think he he can afford to to lower rates. Um I'm I'm sort of surprised about you know Kevin Worsh has been as you guys have discussed hawkish and you know mentioning I mean you know what I mean pal has what nine months 10 months that would be real early to try to me uh you know uh pick a successor uh but uh uh nonetheless I do think that he has room to to lower rates and um uh you know given the inflation x tariffs and given the slowdown in the economy Employment growth is just about 1 half to one third what it was last