저자: JeremySiegel · 한국인
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결론: 제레미 시겔은 2023년 주식시장이 장기 저평가 상태에서 바닥을 확인했다고 보고 신중한 낙관론을 펼쳤다. [노동시장] 기업들의 인력 사재기(labor hoarding)로 상반기 생산성 통계가 75년 만에 최악이었다. 경기가 둔화되면 과잉 인력을 빠르게 줄일 수 있어 노동시장이 급격히 연화될 가능성이 있다고 봤다. [주식시장 전망] 6월 또는 10월에 이중 바닥이 나왔다고 판단했다. 중국 등 변수가 있지만, 연준이 금리를 내리기 시작하면 경미한 경기침체라도 이익이 크게 감소하지 않아 새로운 저점은 만들어지지 않을 것이라고 봤다. 주식시장은 장기적으로 10~15% 저평가되어 있으며 2023년은 주식에 매우 좋은 해가 될 것이라고 말했다. 다만 단기 예측에 생계를 걸 사람은 없다고 덧붙였다. [정치] 중간선거 결과 하원 공화당, 상원 민주당의 분점 정부는 월가에 나쁘지 않다. 교착(gridlock)은 정부의 기업 개입을 줄이므로 월가가 선호한다. 하원이 증세를 효과적으로 막을 것이며, 2024년 대선 이후 트럼프 감세 상당수의 만료가 중요한 변수라고 설명했다. [글로벌 변수] 현재는 우크라이나 전쟁보다 중국이 더 큰 이슈다. 유가는 침공 이전 수준으로 내려와 세계 경제에 긍정적이다. 중국의 제로코로나 정책은 큰 재앙이며 경제에 큰 부정적 충격이 될 수 있다고 우려했다. 다만 중국 인재들이 서방으로 이동하는 긍정적 측면도 언급했다. [결론] 2023년에 대해 신중하게 낙관적이다. 침체가 가장 많이 예상된 해이므로 나쁜 뉴스가 이미 가격에 반영되었고, 서프라이즈는 하방보다 상방에 있을 가능성이 크다고 봤다. 벽을 타고 오르는 시장이므로 완벽한 맑은 날을 기다리면 투자하지 못한다는 입장이다.
다듬은 글
so then do you think that some of the questions asked right now about the labor markets uh are they on point in terms of you know potential concern I mean we obviously have seen a variety of companies come out and say that they were going to cut their labor force uh but to a degree that may even be companies that kind of overshot at the heights of the pandemic especially the tech companies uh that are just kind of right sizing at this point yeah whether there there was a lot of Labor hoarding not only by the tech companies but by many others because all they heard about is impossible to hire impossible to hire if you get someone a body a warm body you keep them um and um I and I think there was over hiring and one of the reasons why I think that was over hiring is uh we we take a look at the productivity statistics in the first half of the year they were the worst six-month productivity uh statistics in 75 years um they were hiring a lot of people they were training them the people weren't working uh effectively when the economy slows they could and if they see a labor market out there they could start getting rid of these excess people quite quickly uh and we really could see a rapid softening of of the labor market um uh as they realize that they don't have to hoard labor anymore what's your message then to equities investors for next year with all of these potential uh impacts on the table I think we've seen the low um either in June or October sort of a double low uh we do have some wild cards that are being thrown in particularly China now um uh which I think is a significant issue but I think when the FED starts bringing rates down um even a mild recession would not uh cause earnings to go down enough I think to cause a new low in the stock market now you know I say that Dan because no one in the short run uh will should ever put their uh their life at stake on what they say about what's going to happen in this in the stock market my feeling is is the stock market is anywhere from 10 to 15 percent undervalued on a long-term basis um uh and I think 2022 is uh 2023 is is actually going to be a very good year for equities and I was going to ask you on top of that you have obviously the components of of the midterm elections where you now are going to have Republicans controlling the House of Representatives Democrats still in control of the Senate historically having a split like that what has that meant for for Wall Street for equities not bad at all uh actually uh you know they often say gridlock uh Wall Street likes gridlock because they think the government interferes too much with business so if they don't get uh a lot of things done except for of course National emergencies that that isn't a bad thing I think uh of course everybody is going to be positioning towards 2024 those elections what are the Republicans going to do are the Democrats going to keep Biden is it going to be new faces I really think that that uh is going to be the most interesting uh political events of the next uh two years I mean there will I mean the fact that thems keep the Senate they will get some appointments uh uh perhaps no Supreme Court Justices uh in these two years no no uh pending um uh retirements there but fed some federal judges some commissions uh appellate judges Etc and so on uh the house will effectively block any tax increases um but we also have to be reminded that after the 2024 election uh the tax cuts that Trump put into effect many of them expired so what the makeup of Congress will be after the 2024 election it will be critical to see what kind of tax regime we have by the middle of this decade finally I wanted to ask you you mentioned about China and that's obviously an ongoing issue right now you also still have the war in Ukraine how much do these Global elements impact what is thought about on Wall Street I mean we know that Wall Street loves certainty and and there's nothing more uncertain than a war and and where that is going to take us and seemingly what the leadership uh in China feels uh about covid and and zero code restrictions yeah I think China is a bigger issue now than the Ukraine um uh I mean we see oil prices really down to pre-invasion levels uh uh which is basically good for the the world economy I mean there's a lot of stress in Ukraine and I'm not trying to minimize the human suffering that's occurring there what's going on in China though I would have never guessed a year ago um the zero code policy I think is a total disaster um it seems like Chinese are seeming to agree with that conclusion um that that I mean that they you know with with over a billion people the uh an economy that's just about equal to ours and and total size uh to go into this uh zero covet is could be a a big uh a big negative shock I I'm concerned about it uh I think there's potentially some good things to come up and I think that some of the great uh minds and entrepreneurs are gonna leave China and come to the west and decide I'm not staying back in China like many of our former students our Chinese students or Asian students often thought they'd learn in the United States and then then they go back and and make their fortunes uh in China uh a lot of them are now wondering whether they want to go back so for 2023 cautiously optimistic best way to describe your your opinion right now yeah I I'm definitely cautiously optimistic some people say that that that this is the most anticipated recession going into next year ever because so many people are forecasting it and when too many people forecast something uh you know my my feeling is is that often uh that drives the market uh below its fundamental values so it might uh a lot of bad news is now factored in I think to prices uh I think the surprises are more likely on the upside than the downside too many chefs in the kitchen right Professor well they already say the stock market climbs a wall of worry yeah so if you wait for the skies to be blue to invest you will never invest
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