저자: LiLu · 외국인
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결론: 리루는 투자 철학(싸게 사기)은 변하지 않았고, 관심 초점이 재무상태표에서 우량 장기 복리 기업으로 옮겨갔으며, 중국 시장의 장기 성장성을 높게 본다. 투자 철학: 모든 지능적 투자는 가치투자이며, 내재가치보다 싸게 사는 것이 핵심이다. 방법론은 시대에 따라 바뀌어 과거에는 재무상태표 중심의 수량적 저평가 투자가 많았으나, 지금은 사업 자체의 이해와 해자가 더 중요하다. 기업 선호: 강한 지속가능한 경쟁우위(해자)와 긴 성장 여력을 가진 장기 복리 기업을 선호하며, ROIC가 높은 기업이 그 수익률을 오래 유지하는 것이 핵심이라고 본다. 코카콜라·구글 등을 예로 들었다. 투자 조언: 지적 정직성을 유지하여 모르는 사업에 투자하지 말 것(실수 누락은 괜찮지만 잘못된 투자는 피할 것), 항상 주인의 관점으로 생각할 것, 끊임없이 배우는 학습기계가 될 것을 강조한다. 과거 사례 공개는 모방을 부른다며 꺼린다. 기술 트렌드: 반도체→인터넷→개인/모바일 컴퓨팅→데이터 경제→AI로 이어지는 흐름을 제시하며, 기술 기업에 투자하거나 이를 활용하는 빅테크에 투자하는 두 가지 접근이 있다고 본다. 마이크론 보유를 암시했다. 중국 투자: 중국은 아직 시장이 발전 중이고 정부가 점차 시장 자율성을 높이는 중이며, 중산층 확대로 소비 중심 경제로 전환되고 있어 가치투자자에게 세계 최고의 시장 중 하나라고 본다. 승인제에서 등록제로의 전환, 금융서비스 산업 등을 기회로 든다. 리스크: 기업 환경은 끊임없이 변하며 경영진이 빠르게 적응하지 못하면 도태될 수 있고, 대체 경쟁자 출현으로 지배력이 무너질 수 있다. 중국 규제 리스크는 발언에서 구체적으로 다뤄지지 않음. 출연자 전망: 리루 본인의 구체적 가격 전망은 언급되지 않음.
다듬은 글
lee liu started off really strong in his recent fireside chat with bruce greenwald he was asked how has his investment philosophy changed over time and his answer was pretty amazing he said that basically his investment philosophy hasn't changed since he started he is always pretty much innately understood that the best investments are ones where you're buying something for less than it's worth one important note about that point is that the philosophy is relatively simple i was just able to explain it in one sentence but the practice is where it really becomes difficult so basically lilu's philosophy of value investing doesn't differ too much from monash kabrai or charlie munger or warren buffett all intelligent investing is value investing you are basically looking for something that is selling for less than it is intrinsically worth and to me that makes a whole lot of sense the thing that does change though isn't the philosophy but the focus of the value so for instance back in the day when benjamin graham was in his heyday the balance sheet was the main focus for investors looking for great bargains nowadays that isn't so important i mean of course a good balance sheet is very important to businesses long-term success but we're not finding as many big net nets or anything like that what's more important is the business itself and this is actually how lilu started out his career he was looking for the proverbial cigar but investments where you look at the balance sheet and if it's cheap on a quantitative basis you ignore the business overall and invest in it now that's also how warren buffett charlie munger and benjamin graham all used to conduct their business but later on lilu started to realize the exact same thing that warren buffett and charlie both realized that it's more important to start to understand the actual operations of the business i actually didn't know about this but lee liu actually helped with a lot of startups he's mentioned that in the talk and through this he was able to really identify characteristics that make up good and bad businesses now it's important for him to understand both types you obviously want to invest in the good ones but it's really important to understand what a bad business looks like so you know what to avoid that may be almost as important as being able to identify a good business so his experience with these startups helped him to realize that hey i need to look into these small businesses that i think i can understand really well so he sort of evolved from investing in cigar butts to investing in quality businesses even if they were big or small so this is obviously the same transition we saw with charlie munger and warren buffett and now monash prabhai and lee liu there's a common thread here all these great investors that i keep mentioning have had very long term track records and success and they've all evolved over time so their focus of value has shifted from balance sheet quantitative approach to long-term compounders welcome back to the channel everybody my name is cj i hope you've enjoyed so far some of my takeaways from lilu's recent fireside chat with bruce greenwald stick around for more key insights from lee liu about how to become a better investor how we can think about investing in china and general business investing advice so lilu went on to mention the types of businesses that he actually likes to invest in and you might be able to guess this but of course it's the long-term compounder so he's looking for businesses with strong durable competitive advantages which we like to refer as moats for a term from warren buffett and he looks for companies with a long runway of growth so that they can continue to grow and hopefully increase their scale to the point where competitors simply cannot catch up with the business lilu actually said this throughout the talk many times he said that the most important businesses have long runways with moats and high potential for growth so keep that in mind when you're looking for a business there are a lot of great tidbits that lilu talked about that i'll continue to touch on so after lilu had started to mostly focus on long-term compounding businesses great businesses he decided like lebron to take his talents elsewhere and so he started investing in china and he's still doing that to a large degree today so lilu basically went from being a refugee from china to accidentally attending a class at columbia business school that where warren buffett was giving a lecture which happened to be bruce greenwald's class to he didn't understand anything about business before he joined this class and instantly he knew that what he wanted to do was investing and now he's one of the most successful value investors and one of my biggest role models and speaking of role models if you aren't aware of lee liu's relationship with charlie munger lilu says that charlie munger is his number one role model now he like charlie prefers to make role models of the eminent dead through reading books about history and all sorts of topics but this time he is willing to make an exception for charlie because charlie is such an exceptional human and the thing he most admires about charlie is his rationality he is able to even in adversity keep calm and think through the situation almost robotically so and a funny fact about lilu that i had never heard before is that before kovid he actually had dinner with charlie every tuesday and to this day now that they can't meet together because of kovid they still talk almost daily on the phone so it seems like charlie has become sort of not only a role model for for lilu but also somewhat of a father figure i would bet so it's easy to see that they have such a close relationship you would be a fool not to want charlie as your role model okay so one more thing that lilu repeated over and over throughout the talk which i think is really important for trying to think about evaluating businesses especially when you're first getting started and that is that the general long-term investment returns are going to closely mirror the returns of the actual business so we're looking for great businesses with above average returns on invested capital now conditions like this where a business is earning a higher return is naturally going to invite a ton of competition we can take alibaba for instance uh they've had a great success with their e-commerce business and of course there are a bunch of competitors entering the space such as pinduoduo and jd just to name a few but the truly exceptional businesses have barriers to entry and moats that protect them from these competitors and really protect their market share so a simplified way to think about a company's long-term success is to consider their return on invest in capital now a company could have high returns on invested capital right now but that doesn't mean that's always going to be the case because of competition or other factors so it seems that lilu is basically saying hot companies with high returns on invested capital are in the long term going to do really well but more important than that is their ability to sustain those rates of return exceptional businesses like coke and google have so far been able to maintain these returns and i think we would all agree that coke and google are extraordinary businesses i also want to point out what lilu finds most interesting about business and investing in general and that is that the fact that the only constant thing is business is constant change companies in favor now are not necessarily going to be successful tomorrow it's hard to imagine a world without amazon but it is very possible in a hundred years some other upstart could start to chip away at amazon's business and actually overturn their dominance it's completely possible and more than likely inevitable that's just the way that uh capital markets work it's like a biological system there's going to be competition and death and rapid growth and more death that's kind of the way it works and in today's climate where we have rapid change especially with new technology lilu believes that it's more important than ever that management be able to handle these rapid changes and managements that aren't able to do so just go by the wayside and the company probably folds up however there are a few businesses where it doesn't matter who's running the business or what's going on now it's critical for businesses that are able to constantly evolve we need to look at how they're building their fortress as lilu said in the talk how they're building their fortress and how is it different from the competitors and how is that going to give them advantage over the competitors is the business's current edge truly going to be an enduring factor that will keep the business afloat for a long long time to come is there a long runway ahead for this business these are the types of questions that we want to be asking when we're looking at evaluating businesses that's a pretty good segue to start talking about what lilu thinks are some good tips for either becoming a better investor or if you're just starting out investing things that you should look out for okay his first tip is something that he again repeated multiple times throughout the talk he says that we must maintain intellectual honesty now there's nothing wrong with not understanding a business but there is something wrong with investing in a business that you don't understand it's important for us as investors for our long-term success to be completely honest and rational about what we do understand and don't understand about the businesses we're investing in and if there's something that we don't understand we need to be upfront about that with ourselves and dive deeper you can always continue to dig deeper do more research do more research and if you finally do crack that shell then go for it and invest but you can always do more research and it kind of goes into the idea that we don't want to make mistakes of commission we don't want to invest in a business that we don't fully understand and potentially lose a lot of money because we're just kind of taking a guess there's there's nothing wrong with missing out on an opportunity i mean lilu says that part of the temperament of being a great investor is to not care whether your investment goes up or down 50 percent or if people all around you are making tons of money and not everybody has these characteristics but they are important qualities and you can develop them somewhat as you go through your investing career so don't lie to yourself because in all likelihood you're just going to end up shooting yourself in the foot next up which i think is a really valuable lesson to learn is to always think like an owner now i know monash probably says this and charlie and warren also adopt an owner's mentality he gave this great little example of imagine that your long-lost uncle suddenly dies and you inherit his business 100 so now you've just come into ownership of this business that you probably didn't even know existed you don't know what the business does so if you think about that before you start to study a new business you go from having no knowledge of the business whatsoever to really wanting to know every single thing there is to know about the business you want to know the financials like the back of your hand you want to know who's running the business who are the competitors everything about the business so if we want to succeed in investing then we should probably think like an owner and his final piece of advice was always be a learning machine be a constant student of history be learning about different industries and businesses that's the only way that we're going to expand our circle of competence devote as much of your time as possible to reading and studying the history of great businesses and businessmen because that'll really enlighten you to what a really good business looks like versus what a bad business looks like you don't necessarily need to be an entrepreneur to learn about business but it does help so lilu didn't know anything about investing or business but he did want to reiterate several times throughout the talk that you can increase your circle of time competence if you have an intense curiosity about the world about certain businesses about everything so basically lulu echoes the sentiments of all the greats warren buffett charlie everybody that you have to be a constant learning machine in this business if you want to keep up and do well i mean i was so impressed by lilu's ability to spit out economic figures about china's gdp growth and specific sector growth it reminded me of warren buffett a lot who he can instantly tell you any basically any number from memory he can tell you baseball statistics he can tell you the exact balance sheet for bnsf railroad i mean they probably both have photographic memories and it's evident that lilu obviously thinks about business a ton i mean it's on it's really clear based on all these insights from lee liu that he's been heavily influenced by charlie and warren and i'm really glad that we have such a leader in the value investing space to continue to look up to because lilu is still relatively young and i really can't wait to continue to follow him on his investing journey he's a brilliant guy and you should watch this entire chat if you want to truly get the measure of this man he also mentioned how it's important to be a generalist broadly so we're excited to learn about basically everything but once you decide on a business and are ready to look into it you better become a specialist in that business you need to know everything about that business and again this harkens back to his point about intellectual honesty i thought this was kind of interesting about lilu bruce greenwald asked lilu to elaborate on a point using a past example from lilu's past portfolios but lilu flatout refused to use any past examples he said he's not a big fan of this practice because people then will try to copy him he said he'd rather teach a man how to fish than to give him fish this is kind of in a stark contrast to monash probably's famous cloning principle so i found that kind of interesting lee liu was kind of opposed to sharing past examples and monash probably on the other hand is completely open about all of his past mistakes successes everything now i don't know which philosophy is better but i have found it really useful personally from learning about monash provides specific mistakes and successes in investing whereas with lee liu we only have the general principles that he's sharing which are obviously valuable don't get me wrong but we have heard them a lot from warren buffett charlie moniz prabhai all the great value investors but it is good to know that lilu is constantly thinking about these values and he obviously practices them if you look at his current portfolio and he believes in them wholeheartedly speaking of individual businesses lilu didn't of course mention any specific businesses but he did he did emphasize the importance of understanding these trends in the changes of technology he talked about the history of technology and the trends going on there in the field right now it all started off with semiconductors and if you're not aware he is invested in micron technology then the invention of these semiconductors eventually led to the rise of the internet and then the rise of the internet has led to personal and mobile computing then the rise of personal computing has led to the almost instantaneous communication for everyone across the world and that trend in turn has led to the rise of the data economy which is now going to lead to more advances in ai so that was kind of the general overview of how he has seen the trends of technology going forward and he did say that we can approach this in one of two ways we can either invest in the companies that are producing this technology such as micron or we can invest in those who are leveraging that that technology and moving the world forward such as big tech giants so there i think he was hinting a little bit at his position in micron and how he sees the importance of semiconductors to the future trends of technology in general and it did provide me a little comfort with micron because he says we we don't need to understand semiconductors at a level that an engineer would actually understand them but we do need to understand these sort of macro trends of how technology is going to shape in the future and of course this is really hard to predict and there are a lot of easier other opportunities out there but if you do want to go down that route you should have a pretty good understanding of what you think the future will look like i mean i think that's kind of fun to think about regardless of whether and you invest in businesses like that okay and finally let's talk a little bit about investing in china now this is a part of the video that i'm definitely gonna have to go back and re-watch and re-watch especially the more exposed i try to become to the chinese markets but his general feeling about chinese markets and securities is that they're going to be even more impactful in the future than they already are today and on this point he's not just talking about china he's talking about all of asia the chinese economy in general is still changing a lot of the citizens are becoming middle class so their needs are changing their needs are changing from just wanting to work and save to wanting to work save and consume so there's this general trend towards a more consumption heavy population in china so he firmly believes that china is one of the best markets in the world for value investors he says that the markets are still generally underdeveloped and the government is slowly transitioning from being really heavy-handed with businesses to trying to let the market be a little bit more free like we do in the united states for instance one example of the government and the regulators being more willing to allow this type of free market participation is that the government is trying to transition from an approval based system where the government has to basically stamp the company's ipo and approve it so that they can go public versus a more registration based system in the us lilu thinks that the market is going to slowly transition to more of a western style of market and that will only increase the opportunity for investors we'll see a larger inflow of capital for instance and more opportunities showing up one concrete example he gave in this case was the financial services industry in china he says that the government has been acting in a way that they want the financial services industry to thrive in china and they're making the markets more conducive for that but again he sees opportunities in every industry in china some more than others of course if you want to learn more about another great asia-based business check out my analysis and valuation of nintendo over here let me know in the comments below if there's something i didn't cover that you want to learn a little bit more about again i want to urge all of you to watch the video in its entirety i'll have it linked down below in the video description if you put it on double speed you can get through it in about 45 minutes and they're probably a bunch of nuggets of wisdom that i didn't cover in this talk please like the video and subscribe to the channel if you found this review of lilu's talk helpful i really appreciate you sticking around to the end and i will see you next time
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