저자: Michael · 외국인
요약 보기
캐시 우드(ARK)가 2021년 큰 조정이 올 것이라 예상하며 이익실현과 현금 확보를 권했다는 내용을 소개한다. 발언자는 캐시 우드가 테슬라에 2018년부터 강세를 보였고 과거 목표가(4,000달러, 장기 1만5천~2만2천달러)를 제시했다고 설명한다. 2021년 1월 기준 테슬라 주가는 5:1 분할 조정 시 849.44달러에서 약 4,247달러로 올라 우드의 목표가를 넘어섰다고 언급한다. 우드는 2021년 조정 이후 회복을 예상했고, 바이든 행정부의 증세(자본이득세, 법인세)가 혁신기업과 인재의 해외 이탈을 부를 수 있다고 우려했다. 발언자 본인은 테슬라 주식을 팔 계획이 없으며 비상시에만 매도를 고려한다고 밝힌다. 발언자는 ARK 규정상 한 종목 비중 상한(약 10~11%)으로 우드가 테슬라를 매도해야 할 수 있다고 추측한다. 자율주행 데이터 우위와 유전체 분야 성장 가능성도 언급되었다.
다듬은 글
i'm sure we're going to go through a doozy of a correction this year at some point...
(원문이 영어이므로 영어 자막을 그대로 다듬어 정리합니다.)
I'm sure we're going to go through a doozy of a correction this year at some point. I don't know when, and I don't know why, but I do know it never hurts to take profits and keep some powder dry, so that you have the psychological wherewithal to pick up bargain-basement prices when the world seems to be falling apart.
Hi, welcome to Electric Invest. My name is Michael, and today I want to talk about Cathie Wood, especially why she's so special among this new generation of disruptive, innovative investors, and obviously in the Tesla community as well. She recently made a video, just a few days ago, talking about a big crash she predicts for 2021, but she expects a recovery. So I'm going to give my two cents on that and what it means for Tesla. My aim in this video is to give you a little perspective on who she is, with a few examples of the price targets and predictions she has given over the years. If you find this video helpful and informative, don't forget to subscribe to Electric Invest and hit the notification bell so you don't miss the upcoming videos. With that said, let's begin.
Cathie Wood's success has been primarily due to her passion for investing in innovation. One of the most-cited calls she's credited with is on Tesla, a company that falls within the three major focuses of ARK in terms of innovation: autonomous tech and mobility as a service. As early as 2018 she has been bullish on Tesla, and very vocal with a record price target, predicting Tesla stock would rise over $4,000 a share by 2024, before the split. Analysts following the stock don't know how to analyze it, because it's not a technology stock, and it's not a car company. Yes, it is battery, it is utility, it is something for everyone, and no one can pull it all together. We have set up our research teams, and we've broken them out not by sector but by innovation platforms: robotics, autonomous vehicles, energy storage, artificial intelligence, transportation as a service. We have four analysts collaborating on this. I don't think research departments out there are set up to analyze this stock.
As of recording, Tesla stock has closed at over $849.44 when adjusted for the five-for-one split. At the time Cathie Wood made that prediction, the current price today is a little over $4,247, so well over the $4,000 target she had. That wasn't even her highest target. Her highest has been up to $22,000, with her bull case at $15,000 a share, which depends on Tesla executing as a first innovator in autonomous driving and ride-hailing services. This $15,000 target is still a very high possibility and is still set for 2024. And let's not forget that Tesla currently has more data than any other company when it comes to self-driving. We believe Tesla will be in pole position to dominate the autonomous taxi network, mostly because of its advantages in artificial intelligence, the amount of data it has collected, and its AI expertise. They now have 15 billion miles of real-world driving collected. Google, the next closest, has about 25 million. 15 billion versus 25 million. The winner in autonomous will have the most data and the highest-quality data, and that company right now is Tesla.
In the same interview she also talked about the next disruptive, big upside surprise expected to come from the genomics side, especially bioinformatics. But because this channel is primarily focused on Tesla and the EV sector, I won't go into the deep details of that company here. I'd rather keep it around Cathie Wood. So there are very, very bullish predictions from Cathie Wood, and judging by her tremendous, laser-focused eye for innovation and her ability to spot technological trends, I think she's someone we definitely need to pay attention to. I admire her firstly because of her extensive work, not just on Tesla but across other sectors.
That's why I want to talk about her latest video from ARK, released a couple of days ago, in which she says she expects a crash is coming, and also talks about the dynamics of the economy and what she predicts will happen. As any seasoned investor knows, when a stock keeps going parabolic to the moon, it becomes extremely clear that a lot of shaky hands are going to be taking profits. It's not healthy to keep going up and up every single day. Stock prices should move in line with the pace of innovation, which is something Tesla is definitely doing. Tesla grew tremendously in 2020; the stock rose over 700%, and for good reason. Tesla beat all of the estimates, reaching roughly 500,000 vehicle deliveries, give or take. Tesla surpassed all expectations, and a 700% gain over a full year on a stock like Tesla is remarkable. Since the beginning of the year we've had a tremendously high run.
Even Republicans are beginning to understand that the costs of technology like electric vehicles and battery technology more broadly are coming down to a level where the technology is ready to scale in many ways. That hasn't been true for years and years, so the government has had to subsidize these areas to jump-start them. We think that's going to be much less necessary, but to the extent this new administration pushes more aggressively in that direction, it will happen faster.
She also puts out the expectation that there will be an explosion in earnings, primarily due to massive growth and innovation specifically from the tech sector and all of these innovative companies, including Tesla. Something else to consider: she talked about the Biden administration and the Democrats controlling both the executive and legislative branches, and said it is a concern if they raise taxes on corporations as well as capital gains. She gave an example of many citizens moving from high-tax states to lower-tax states; Elon Musk moved from California to Texas, although not necessarily for tax reasons. She goes on to say that under this administration, if capital gains and taxes are raised, there will definitely be an impact, and ARK is ready to be extremely mobile. She seems to be sitting on the fence, because she knows a Biden administration could be very good for innovation, especially in the electric sector, but she also appears concerned about the tax side, and she made it clear that she has a Plan B.
She said about President-elect Biden: "The most damaging parts of his proposals, or purported proposals, are increased tax rates. We've seen that's not been a great strategy. Administrations in the past who tried it found the tax base would disappear on them. We're seeing a migration to low-tax states, very visible on both coasts. I think this new administration is going to hear the other side of the debate about what else will migrate. If they raise capital gains tax rates and corporate taxes and increase regulation again, we'll probably see a migration of innovation, innovative companies, and creative people to other parts of the world, either back to their home countries or elsewhere. Our strategies are global in scope, so we will follow them."
So the major takeaway from Cathie Wood's video is that she sees a correction coming soon, in 2021. This will definitely affect every investment you have, including Tesla stock. Toward the end of the video she explains that many governments use inflation as a way to deal with problems, but she handles it differently: through innovation, letting innovation solve the issues for her. I tend to agree with Cathie Wood a little on taking profits. Taking profits doesn't really hurt anybody; it's actually not that bad.
Personally, I am not selling any Tesla shares. I would consider selling some only if I had an emergency, something unexpected in my family or an unexpected expense I couldn't have planned for. Then yes, I'd probably consider selling, because I'm not going to go into debt if I know I have Tesla shares. But if a crash is coming in 2021, is it going to be as bad as 2020? That was the largest crash most of us have ever seen. Many investors, especially those watching this channel, are around my age or younger, and they weren't even investing in 2008. I wasn't invested in 2008. I was in high school, just a teenager, and didn't know anything about it. So what happened in March 2020 was the largest, literally, "oof," because the last one happened over a decade ago.
So if there is indeed a crash in 2021, as Cathie Wood predicts, then personally, even though I agree it's okay to take a little bit of profit, I would only do it in an emergency, if I needed the money. I'm not selling any shares. I believe she's required to do certain things because of ARK's rules: she isn't allowed to keep Tesla above a certain percentage of the fund. If it gets over about 10 or 11 percent (correct me in the comments if I'm wrong), she's actually required to sell, because she can't let Tesla, her biggest holding in ARK, become way too big. That's where I believe she's coming from when she makes those comments.
I'd like to know your opinions below. What do you think about Cathie Wood? Do you think she's right about the 2021 crash? Would you sell your Tesla stock? What do you think about her opinions on genomics? Do you think we should listen to her? Let me know in the comments. If you found this video helpful and informative, give it a like for the YouTube algorithm, and make sure to subscribe to Electric Invest so you don't miss the upcoming videos.
I also want to let you know that you may have noticed the color scheme on the channel is purple right now. I just did that to see what people would say, so let me know in the comments if you like it. A lot of people have been telling me in the comments, "Oh, solving the money problem wannabe," or "solving the money problem 2.0." I'm just like, oh my god, I'm not trying to copy Solving the Money Problem just because I have cyan in my color scheme and we happen to talk about Tesla. That's just silly. Some people are extremely popular in the Tesla community, and we tend to talk about similar topics, but I guess we're not allowed to use the same color scheme? How many YouTube channels have I seen with red that talk about the same things, and how many technology channels have I seen with blue? I don't know, but let me know what you think of the new color. This is experimental. If you think it looks nice, I'll keep it.
Also, follow me on Twitter, @electric_invest. I try to post news I find here and there to give you a bit of extra content, even if it's just me posting and reposting news to keep you informed on anything related to Tesla or EV technology that I haven't been able to cover in a video. I'm not able to make a video every day, unfortunately, and it's becoming a little difficult to post one every day. My last video was about three days ago, and I'm trying to post multiple videos during the week, but I work every single day. I don't have a day off; I work even on weekends. So if you're patient with me and want a bit more information, you can follow me on Twitter.
I love you guys. We're almost at 10,000 subscribers, and I can't believe it. This community has literally changed my life. I've been investing in Tesla since 2019, and I thought to myself, why don't I just make a channel? But I never could make myself do it. I was always scared, especially because channels like Steven Mark Ryan's Solving the Money Problem are so big. I thought I couldn't compete with that. Nobody's going to subscribe to me, nobody's going to watch my videos, they're probably going to bully me, and they already have, calling me a copycat. But I'm just thankful, really thankful, for all of you. It means a lot to me, and I can never be happier than I am right now. I'm going to be doing more news-related videos. I want to cover a few brand-new things about Tesla coming up on the channel, as well as a few other videos more centered on technology. I'll see you guys in the next video.
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